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[sailing john] 26/4/2017 08:03

Added Q1 actual to my model forecasts
All slightly better than I forecast but I aim to be cautious - pleased to see AUAC remains much lower than historic average
Overall positive tone and another new heavyweight Non Exec appointed

.....Q116 Q416 Q1(E) Q1 Act
Rev. $85m $92m $75m. $77.5
New C 29k 22k. 20k.. 22k
Act C 68k 72k. 68k...72k
ARPU 1256 1277 1100. 1080
AUAC 1316 742! 1200. 907

Need to update my FY to reflect lower costs - Rev unchanged but PBT will increase

[hutch_pod] 26/4/2017 07:41

Impressive cost control..

[lampran] 26/4/2017 07:14

Well done sailing John, pretty close! Great to see even lower auac

[planelondon] 25/4/2017 18:53

JS - I'm slightly more optimistic than you for Q1 KPIs forecast: Revenue $81m, New customers 33,000, Active customers 78,000, ARPU $1,040, AUAC $1,385, Marketing spend $46m.

My understanding of the low ACAC in Q4 2016 is because marketing spend dropped off considerably in Q4 at to $16.6m compared to Q1: $37.9m, Q2: $37.9m and Q3: $32.6m. This meant as a proportion a higher number of customers of the total were acquired by natural search and brand strength and fewer customers recruited by paid search/words.

[lydnem] 25/4/2017 10:41

I still dont like the comparison to IGG. They have different business models and this crackdown on regulation will highlight the differences

[sailing john] 25/4/2017 10:39

Lyd - I can't predict active customers/new users other than assuming the previous quarter's trend will continue. However volatility has proved to be a good guide to trading volume and can vary revenue by plus or minus 15% or so each quarter and there are various measures that can be monitored in real time to give an idea of what is likely for the current quarter. (And of course IGG are out of synch reporting wise so their 3Q to end of Feb gives an early indication of what to expect in PLUS's Q1)

Will be interesting to see where AUAC lies for Q1 given that it halved in Q4 last year and we don't know why/how although I would expect a knock on to new customers - hence my forecast reduction of 10% to 20k in Q1.

I keep trying to refine my model and try to keep it cautious as I'm either long or out depending on valuation - my current target is North of 600p which would still put it on a significantly lower multiple than CMCX or IGG

[lydnem] 25/4/2017 10:24

SJ - It seems your focus is on volatility. Given their model, I would think the focus should be on customer gains, as they usually benefit on gaining new punters, and the punter losing their couple of grand, then moving onto the next lot

[sailing john] 25/4/2017 08:48

Repost of my Q1 KPI model output - posted above
Will be able to compare with actuals tomorrow

.....Q116 Q416 Q117(E)
Rev. $85m $92m $75m
New C 29k 22k 20k
Act C 68k 72k 68k
ARPU 1256 1277 1100
AUAC 1316 742! 1200

FY 2017 model ouput
Rev $295m vs $328m in 2016
PAT $97m vs $117m in 2016
PE 6.2 at 420 and 1.25
Yield 10-15% dependent on special
nai SJ

[sailing john] 25/4/2017 08:41

Morning Lyd - where in my post does it say I'm happy!
Anyway as you rightly say not significant - and are others having the same conversations with the FSMA in Belgium?
I'm not an Internet expert but it must be difficult/impossible to prevent access to Internet advertising (perhaps from third parties) from just one country
And in PLUS's case they are shirt sponsor to Atletico - I assume fans aren't stopped at the airport if they are wearing AM shirts and Belgians are allowed to watch Champion's League football - not seen the detail so no idea how they attempt to enforce
I understand that Regulatory controls are actually working against the intended purpose as non regulated providers are moving in to fill the gap leaving customers at greater risk.

Anyway an interesting debate - not expecting a strong Q1 tomorrow given the record low volatility. A decent April though until yesterday when market calmed by French election first round. Plenty more volatility drivers on the horizon though
GL - SJ

[lydnem] 25/4/2017 08:19

Im not getting excited about half a bar, but you would have to ask if this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Im glad you are happy with the company for breaking the rules......again

[sailing john] 25/4/2017 08:10

Where's Lydnem (aka ElCap) usually gets very excited at anything negative for PLUS

PLUS - Belgium FSMA fine of Euro 0.55m - presumably not complied with ban on advertising or offering leveraged products in Belgium

1Q TS is tomorrow which will be more significant for price

RNS but Leaprate puts a little more meat on the bones

[thevaluehunter] 19/4/2017 19:32

Yep looks like the regulation is going to get kicked into the long grass.

[timanglin] 19/4/2017 13:21

Maybe a change in direction over regulation And plenty of trading around the election. Good news, imho.

[rhatton] 19/4/2017 11:56

Might be waiting awhile yet for the FCA ruling to come through.
Probably even less of an impact in this years earnings then

[lampran] 13/4/2017 12:25

Thanks Sailing John, cheers for the correction/ Still a great co.

[sailing john] 12/4/2017 16:52

Yes and plenty of Atletico players arguing with the ref so we get some nice still shots of our Investment!!!
I can't remember if they have also have some advertising around the ground - not watching so if anyone else is I would be interested to know.

[thevaluehunter] 12/4/2017 16:18

Let's hope for a goal fest tonight!

[aishah] 11/4/2017 13:27

The new April issue of Master Investor magazine has set up a portfolio of 10 high yielding AIM-quoted small caps which might grow "from acorns to oak trees".

Plus appears in the list with 11% yield although not in the featured Cos:

[sailing john] 11/4/2017 11:33

Re staff - yes they have several hundred.

I haven't seen a figure for total staff (usually in annual report but can't find anything) but the 150 staff is just for "The Global Compliance Team" see results presentation link below

Also Salaries increased to $19m in 2016 up from just $12m in 2015 (probably around 400 at an average of $50k/head)