Plexus Share Discussion Threads

[source] 03/11/2023 11:08

The sales & market are definitely there to be had and their markets are huge Paul. Main risk is execution error & settling for mediocre management/sales execution. Sales & contracts should be flowing thick & fast by now, if they don't then the committed executive directors need to fix it quick & roll poor sales heads. Easy fix if they're focused. Recovery elsewhere is already well evident & established for around 18 months now at least.

[hotorcold] 03/11/2023 11:04

Nice Post Paul. One more buy Paul for 3 percent

[michaelg1] 03/11/2023 11:00

Your score: 2 / 7


Famous Last Words
7: Word Up

4-6: Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word

0-3: Famous Last Words

[grahamite2] 03/11/2023 10:52

Your score: 4 / 7


Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word
7: Word Up

4-6: Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word

0-3: Famous Last Words

[dominiccummings] 03/11/2023 10:45

Your score: 3 / 7


Famous Last Words

[jeffian] 03/11/2023 10:41

Your score: 2 / 7


Famous Last Words

7: Word Up

4-6: Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word

0-3: Famous Last Words

[paulypilot] 03/11/2023 10:32

Let me demonstrate with some numbers how averse Plexus management are to new share issuance - the complete opposite of most AIM companies! But that's because Plexus mgt own 59% of the co, and it's very much the CEO's life's work - he started the company in the late 1980s! So they jealously guard their own position, and hence our position too as smaller shareholders.

2017 - op loss £5.3m - no shares in issue 105m
2018 - op loss £5.3m - no. shares 105m
2019 - op loss £4.0m - no. shares 103m
2020 - op loss £5.7m - no. shares 103m
2021 - op loss £4.6m - no shares 100m
2022 - op loss £4.3m - no shares 100m
2023 - forecast £4.5m loss - no shares 103m (after recent sale of treasury shares)
2024 - forecast move into small profit, due to £8m rental contract.
(years ending June)

Obviously a terrible track record, in terms of losses, because demand for higher end wellheads dried up. That's now changing, with demand returning, evidenced by the £8m contract win announced earlier this year.

Obviously we need more than 1 big contract! If this is the first of a much larger resumption of business for Plexus, then we're sitting on a potentially massive multibagger here (remember it reached £300m mkt cap in 2014 - this is proven, patented technology, not a startup.
If the £8m contract turns out to be a one-off, then we'll just have a frustrating bump along the bottom, and maybe eventually a trade sale of Plexus to one of the majors (which could itself be quite lucrative, who knows?)

It's the 59% mgt shareholdings that makes this stand out for me. Instead of hired hands who throw around new shares like confetti, as at so many AIM growth companies, the team here are old hands, with proven tech, and highly passionate about commercialising it - talk to the CEO to get a flavour for the level of commitment here.

How did they fund the multi-year losses without dilution, I hear you cry? Some IP was sold to Technip, and they found more money down the back of the sofa, including selling a £1m leasehold property to the CEO. The CEO also put in £1.5m in a convertible loan (fair terms I'd say), and more recently another £0.7m loan. So you couldn't ask for more committed management. They're absolutely convinced the company is on the cusp of exciting things, which is why they're backing it with their own money.

We'll just have to wait and see whether it works or not. I can't think of anything else at £15m market cap with proven tech, high margins, a move into profit in the current year, and a licensing deal with the world's largest oil services group about to start commercialisation. There's an awful lot of potential here, for very little market cap.

I'll stop now, as I'm starting to sound like a ramper, but all the above is factually correct, based on what's in the RNS and the Cenkos notes.

I'm up to 2.95m shares now, so for me, this HAS to work, and I'm in for the duration!

Best wishes, Paul.

[monte1] 03/11/2023 10:21

Mornings




Your score: 2 / 7


Famous Last Words

7: Word Up

4-6: Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word

0-3: Famous Last Words

[michaelg1] 03/11/2023 10:05

You can't really blame teh elephant.

[bloomberg2] 03/11/2023 10:02

Excellent post Paul!!! I thought I'd put the placing post out !! So you'd put the record straight for other POS holders !!!

[tomboyb] 03/11/2023 09:51

Good post Paul -

[drradcliffe] 03/11/2023 09:49

I think a lot depends on new contract wins, as it stands we have a forecast small recovery to profit next year. More order wins and the price will go up and stay up at around 30p (depending upon order values and their nature of course.) Not sure why they'd need to raise funds at the moment beyond what they already have...

[dominiccummings] 03/11/2023 09:41

Tie the van down Hammy, there's another dose coming.... good luck

[dominiccummings] 03/11/2023 09:41

Mrnyng all

[dominiccummings] 03/11/2023 09:40

We are grateful for the 18 year long service from grahamite who has added value daily for this many years.

[paulypilot] 03/11/2023 09:36

Any placing would be linked to the convertible loans, that's what drives it. Management are totally opposed to dilution, as evidenced by the fact that they still own 59%, despite years of losses since 2015. Now things are turning up again (eg. £8m contract, plug & abandonment, regulatory focus on methane leaks, launch of Schlumberger products & royalties starting), I'd say they'll jealously guard the share count.

There are other financing sources available - eg deferred payment terms already agreed for manufacturing new rental equipment.

With a nanocap like this, the free float is so tiny that the share price can do literally anything. It's not rational or logical, or linked to what might be going on with the fundamentals. It's just lots of small trades, going in & out, I think. The market cap is far too small for institutions to be trading in the market.

My emotions dislike the price falling, but the logical part of my brain likes it, as it provides an opportunity to buy more at a more favourable price.

Given the upside potential we've discussed here before, £15m mkt cap looks an absolute gift to me. But there are no guarantees of course, anything could happen at this end of the market.

Regards, Paul.

[grahamite2] 03/11/2023 08:54

Morning all.

[emigna2020] 03/11/2023 07:50

Slapp that Jap

[james japp] 03/11/2023 07:03

I note that the IDF are almost from the river to the sea.

[james japp] 03/11/2023 07:00

Aye, Hamilton Central. No on the grog front, although tbf I am still a little tired.

[michaelg1] 03/11/2023 06:36

Oh dear mate. I bet it is PIA central :(

God speed mate - any sign of a brekkie pint?

[michaelg1] 03/11/2023 06:35

Morning Patriots.