Platmin Share Discussion Threads

[the metal man] 02/2/2010 17:25

Not sure about the Lonmin stake, I thought it was diluted down to 6% or so, after Pallinghurst ploughed money into PPN.

To try and understand Pallinghurst's intentions you have to get to know about them. They are essentially an investment vehicle that aims to buy up stakes in mainly resource companies with growth potential or, even distressed assets with potential.

They might actually be quoted on the JSE and are on the Bermuda exchange. I think they started off with an issue of 169,316 shares at $1000 each with an initial subscription requirement of $300,000.

They have stakes in other Aim listed companies, Tanzanite One, Gemfields and also the ASX listed Jupiter Mines.

Brian Gilbertson is a dealmaker and was responsible for bringing Billiton to market in 2001 and merging it with BHP. He even tried to merge the new BHP Billiton with Rio Tinto (which has been attempted again recently by the current board). He brought Vedanta, which was an Indian mining company, to the LSE in 2003. He does have other interests as do Pallinghurst.

Therefore, I don't think there is any question of PPN being sold off unless there is maximum leverage, which means organic and acquisitive growth. Just my opinion.

[orgasmicbeef] 02/2/2010 14:45

Now look at Xstrata results who own 24% of Lonmin..... and as Lonmin own 20% +- Platmin there is some logic to a sort out between them all as long as Pallinshurst play the game and get a price acceptable. I suggest 4$ would see it through. If Lonmin did the deal, then Xstrata could take Lonmin. IMO and just an idea, but operationally, a v large P super producer [the big pit] makes sense.

[the metal man] 02/2/2010 09:41

PPN would certainly look attractive to a bidder, however, Pallinghurst hold all of the cards here and the BEE partner at Pilanesberg is the same as at their Magazynskraal project. Soon the BEE partner will exchange their holding in Pilanesberg for a direct holding in PPN, giving PPN a 100% stake in the project.

[orgasmicbeef] 29/1/2010 19:36

Lonmin lacks production, Aquarius OK, but the higher value of PPN's resource [near surface] must IMO make them a target, plus Pall has geared up to change empowered partner I understand?? So all in all, next quarters figs crucial all round, but a sale likely IMO. Have to agree on volatility which makes all resource stocks 'in the ground' value increase.

[the metal man] 27/1/2010 21:41

Pillion

I agree, although it's usually a bit slower to react so it's easier to pick up the trend by watching the others, IMO.

tiger60

Not optimism, just facts. Let's see where platinum is in April along with PPN. I'm also happy to use market volatility to my advantage whether it's PPN or not. Where investing is concerned, there's no room for sentiment. Those holding for the long term should be rewarded, all IMO, DYOR.

[pillion] 23/1/2010 21:15

I've followed PPN for yonks but not bought
The spread is wide


Lonmin & Xstrata weekly chart -- so similar -- much smaller spread than peepee-en


free stock charts from www.advfn.com

[tiger60] 23/1/2010 21:04

'Although western economies are still somewhat jittery it is not so with China'

I admire your optimism - China is the next bubble and even they can see it with last weeks request to demand increased capitlisation of their banks balance sheets. Property prices are growing too fast and inflation is a matter of time. Strengthening the Yuan is a formality against the dollar (next month) but too late. And although inflation is not necessarily bad for the plats, sentiment will be knocked worldwide as the one remaining hope disappears...

But like all bubbles they go on a lot longer than they should. Ride Plat stocks til April then ditch them all and lock the door...only my opinion but happy to discuss in April/May. I am in and out of PPN at the moment but any retreat Monday I am back (at least for a couple of months)...

[the metal man] 22/1/2010 16:09

C$3.50 is not an unreasonable assumption but we need to have production and earnings visibility. Although we can expect some insight when the end of year figures (10 months to 31st December 2009) are released, it will more than likely be the next quarterlies before we know if we're on target for the 160k oz pa expected this year.

There's been a pull back from the highs in most pgm stocks but the fall back in the price of pgm metals is from a Wednesday high where platinum for example, reached $1648 oz. It's currently $1563 oz around the price it was at the end of the first week in January, and so still at quite a premium above the $1195 utilised for the Financial Year 2010 projections.

Although western economies are still somewhat jittery it is not so with China, who have taken up the slack with a 46% increase in car production. The car markets in the US and Europe are now showing signs of recovery and given that new PGM projects were put on hold due to lack of funding in the downturn, demand could easily outstrip supply this year. It bodes well for pgm prices.

[orgasmicbeef] 22/1/2010 10:53

Yes Bulldog30, I have done a similar exercise and C$2 far too low for this stock, I agree with you and my target 4.50C$ Good weekend....

[bulldog30] 22/1/2010 08:07

Broker note put out by GMP Securities on 2nd November gives a target share price of C$2 for 12 months. Interesting but it gets much better when one considers that commodity prices utilised for Financial Year 2010 were platinum $1195 , Palladium $230 , Rhodium $1507 and gold $991.

Using current prices , I estimate that gross margins have increased by about 80% so is a new target price of say C$3.50 out of the question ?

On a take out is C$4.00 to C$5.00 reasonable given low cost profile and corporate activity envisaged on the Sedibelo ground down dip from Tuschenkomst ?

Woof woof

[monhearme] 20/1/2010 14:10

Platmin (and PLAA) flagged up in MoneyWeek today.

"Is it time to get into platinum? By Dominic Frisby Jan 20, 2010"

[orgasmicbeef] 20/1/2010 13:48

Platinum price up again, we need to hear what is going on I agree. Suitors must abound, but are they getting the negative vibes?

[bulldog30] 16/1/2010 09:04

The company has been extremely bad in communicating effectively to the market and its shareholders. Suddenly we are 12 months behind schedule and instead of all hands to the deck on sorting out the problem we have a COO taken aside to set up and run an exploration division to be run solely to increase value for the major shareholder.

Clarification is needed asap !

[the metal man] 14/1/2010 17:50

I agree about the throughput as we expected 30-40k oz this quarter, to put us on target for the 160k oz pa. They say that will not now be achieved until year end 2010, with 250k oz pa at the end of year 2011. Where that leaves the peak 290k oz pa, who knows. They have given some reasons for the delay, such as the recent strike and lower than expected grades.

As regards raising more finance it is a two part explanation. Firstly, because of the above the cash flow will not be as high as expected but also the costs of running the operation were higher. They will also have to alter the running of the mine to access the higher grades. The intriguing part is the second, and the statement makes reference to both. "The delay of approximately one year in achieving full capacity and anticipated corporate activities in a consolidating industry will require additional funds".

That to me intimates at an acquisition. It could also be reference to the statement which says they will be creating a new division exclusively for exploration and development initiatives. Both of the statements require more clarity IMO, in particular the second one.

If the fund raising eludes to a 'new division' or not, is said division to work for the benefit of PPN? It's first task as an 'exclusively exploration and development division' would be to carry out a BFS on a prospective 20m oz Pallinghurst owned project. Is this Pallinghurst using PPN as a vehicle to raise cash to carry out the BFS or, will it be an earn in arrangement on pretty much the same basis?

Either way there should be more on Mphahlele as PPN's next priority in terms of 'development' and use of funds because that is where the near term production is.

PPN is 51% owned by Pallinghurst hence such a proposal requires absolute clarity and so far, they have not proved to be proactive as far as investors are concerned. They are answerable to minority shareholders afterall.

[orgasmicbeef] 14/1/2010 15:04

Not a great throughput, talking about raising more finance what gives?

[pillion] 14/1/2010 13:53

SP dropped on the RNS @ 1 pm

[the metal man] 12/1/2010 18:11

The latest quarterlies on production output should easily equate to 35 - 40k oz throughput on an attributable basis, disappointing if not as we should soon be up to 62.5oz attributable (when BEE assets become part of PPN via equity).

I'm guessing the gross margin will be around the $400 oz mark. Working on January's pgm prices alone, the current margin should be around $500 - $550 oz using historic prices as a median for the current basket price. Great if the current pgm prices can be maintained or, improved upon.

Either way, although not by any means the lowest cost producer, PPN probably is when compared to peers with a 200k oz pa + production profile.

[orgasmicbeef] 12/1/2010 11:50

Pt broken thru 1600USD$, so yes, I agree, the portens very positive all round, but PPN has a long way to go before getting back to a reasonable price level? If production getting throughput up to 35-40k ozs/ qtr then annual results could give a better picture in medium term? Margin about 400-500/oz?

[the metal man] 12/1/2010 11:20

Pretty much confirms what Bloomberg said together with the likely effect of the ETFs trading in NY as reprted by Matthey. Also confirms that western car sales have bottomed.

[the metal man] 11/1/2010 10:50

By the end of the week, I hope.

[orgasmicbeef] 11/1/2010 10:43

Metal Man

OK understood and thanks for that, been a long time awaiting the uptake. Report soon then?

[the metal man] 11/1/2010 10:16

Pt stocks in vogue.



With western auto manufacturing bottoming out not only do we have China taking up the slack but I would suspect India will not be lagging behind.

If PGM prices hold firm or maintain their rise and the quarterlies offer what we expect to see then we're still very much undervalued, IMO.

Also



If you have trouble with the second link you can go to the top of the page and should be able to access the article from Matthey's home page. Essentially Platinum and Palladium began trading as ETF's on the NYSE Arca platform from 8th January 2010. "With demand for pgms from the auto sector - which uses them in catalytic converters struggling in recent months, the move will provide a timely boost to the industry".

[orgasmicbeef] 11/1/2010 09:31

Good rise today on smallish volume, so getting quite interesting. Lonrho bid maybe?

[bulldog30] 10/1/2010 11:37

We should know next Friday.

[orgasmicbeef] 10/1/2010 09:08

Someone is in the know maybe, Bulldog30 let's hope the
results might be good?