Pipehawk Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 11/3/2022 10:30

Predicting 7,500 Ventive Home sales over 18 months.

So maybe 4,000 over 1st year. and we know QMS would get £7.5m revenue for that year.

So QMS get £1,875 revenue per unit.

They're predicting 100,000 sales by 2025. That would be £187.5m revenue to PIP/QMS.

...And the Ventive contract is only one of many contracts QMS have (and we still expect another major contract to be signed soon)

And QMS is only one of several subsidiaries PIP has.

Surely PIP is a mega bargain at only £10m

[dave4545] 11/3/2022 09:59

It gets even better then

NT at 33p too

50p later :-))

[someuwin] 11/3/2022 09:47

Just got an email reply from the company confirming that the £7.5m for first 12 months quoted yesterday all goes to QMS. Not shared with Ventive.

[nico115] 11/3/2022 09:24

Agreed this is stupidly valued Just think 450p is wrong value when we don't have definitive numbers I'm also bullish on other parts of the business. I'm at 4.7pct so I'm still buying although not paid more than 22p ..yet!!

[someuwin] 11/3/2022 09:22

IF the ventive product is a commercial success, then as they said yesterday Ventive / PIP(QMS) could become major players in the domestic heating market. Their valuations then would be in 100's of millions. Compared to today's £10m.

And remember that heat pumps won't be discretionary spending items. We will all be forced to have them (even if Gov has to steal ever more tax payer funds to heavily subsidise them)


"...The opening of Hartlebury is a first for UK manufacturing and we expect it will put Ventive and QM Systems at the forefront of domestic heating and hot water solutions in the UK and, in due course, overseas."

[dave4545] 11/3/2022 09:10

Just look at NCYT when they were first out of the traps on the covid tests.

Shares went from 10p to £12 in under a year.

Nothing is impossible if PIP is making something nobody is for whatever price it is being sold for, the growth could be incredible.

All I do know is we have a amazing chance to make a quick killing at the current market cap, for all we know if this does the rounds we could be 5-10 times this level in just months

[nico115] 11/3/2022 09:08

We don't get all the profit !! Ventive probably makes a much bigger percentage than us

[nico115] 11/3/2022 09:06

450p ? Youre crazy !!

[dave4545] 11/3/2022 09:02

ramp of the week

100,000 units made in 2025, sold for £3000 each, £300 million turnover.

5% profit margin each so £15 mil to QM

Modest PER of 10, £150 mil market cap

Share price 450p

People selling around 27-30p after the RNS.

[hydrus] 11/3/2022 08:48

Good research someuwin thanks for sharing

[nico115] 11/3/2022 08:39

Tried to buy 90k shares Impossible Everyone's a buyer ArghhhhhhhShares 5p to 30p and can buy more than a tenner

[someuwin] 11/3/2022 08:34

Interesting tweet from Ventive themselves today. The fact that the new Ventive / QMS Home heat pump doesn't need an external unit is a very big plus. There are many, many properties which just don't have the room for outside heat pumps. And many householders just don't want external. This also suggests that the Ventive units are quiet. Which is another huge plus (existing air source heat pumps are notoriously noisy - to the point that some units keep householders and neighbours awake at night!)

Ventive @ventiveltd ·31m

Thanks! Home is an Exhaust Air Heat Pump with integrated heat recovery ventilation. The HP charges a thermal store to heat the home and give DHW. No outside unit required. Comfort cooling in the summer. Allows us to load shift & can integrate w/PV+batt to island the 🏡

[phillyaboots] 11/3/2022 08:11

Good point, I double checked the rns again. It mentions that current annual demand is 37,000 units, so hard to see they would be making 7,500 units in a short space of time. Maybe 750.

[dave4545] 11/3/2022 07:34

The RNS does not state 750 units, posts on twitter by various connected parties give out numbers 750 to 100,000 by 2025

Perhaps best to get clarification before trying to work out how much each they are.

[garth] 11/3/2022 07:16

phillyaboots11 Mar '22 - 07:03 - 744 of 745
0 0 0
Pldaze, agree the numbers don’t quite add up. They would have to be £1000 a unit to get £7.5m and would think they are going to be at least £5k each

And perhaps that is a possible answer to whether the revenue figure applies to the gross figure or PIP's net figure?

G.

[dave4545] 11/3/2022 07:12

I do not have the answers or the expertise to know.

The simple way is to fire off a email or call the company.

Results are coming soon, might be more detail in them soon.

[phillyaboots] 11/3/2022 07:03

Pldaze, agree the numbers don't quite add up. They would have to be £1000 a unit to get £7.5m and would think they are going to be at least £5k each

[31337 c0d3r] 10/3/2022 23:43

With ground source heat pumps, you need a bore hole around 100-150m deep, which has a huge drilling cost alone of around £15,000.

[someuwin] 10/3/2022 23:39

Air source. Its in the RNS...

"...We expect strong market growth in the heating sector over the next decade. To meet the UK's carbon reduction targets, it is estimated that 20 million buildings will need to be retrofitted with air source heat pumps and to reduce the burning of fossil fuels to heat them - the facility in Hartlebury will ensure that Ventive plays its part in this mission."


QMS are involved in the production of the units not the installation, which is where a lot of the cost to the consumer comes in.

[pldazzle] 10/3/2022 23:26

phillya - that's exactly what I was asking earlier today (#718).

dave -
"Heat pumps prices are usually high, taking into account the installation of the heat pump, however the costs will vary for different heat pumps. The typical price range for a complete installation is between £8,000 and £45,000, to which the running costs have to be considered.

"Air to water heat pump costs usually start from £7,000 and go up to £18,000, while ground source heat pump costs can reach up to £45,000."



I was under the impression that the Ventive system is ground source, but I'm more than willing to be corrected on that.

[phillyaboots] 10/3/2022 21:17

Is that £7.5m pipehawk or 1.1/0.4 split based on each companies investment ?

[dave4545] 10/3/2022 19:00

I'm no heating engineer but £20-40k think you are miles out.

Anyway look at this

Energy Systems Catapult@EnergySysCat⭐️ Fantastic news for @ventiveltd !!

▶️Today announced plans to manufacture 7,500 “Ventive Home” systems in the next 18 months, rising to 100,000 systems by 2025.

▶️New facility with @QM_Systems is expected to create 40 new jobs over the next 18 months.

[pldazzle] 10/3/2022 17:14

Would welcome some help getting my head round the costings.

The article quoted at #736 (thx, someuwin) says Ventive and QM "plan to manufacture 7,500 Ventive Home Systems in the next 18 months" i.e. roughly between now and September 2023.

Today's RNS says that [projected] sales of the system amount to £7.5m, albeit only up to 30/6/2023. OK, let's use a £10m-£12m ballpark to include Jul/Aug/Sept 2023.

As I understand it - and please correct me if this is wrong! - a typical home heat pump system might cost between £20K and £40K retail. Which suggests that 7,500 systems would have a retail value of £150m-£300m. Even allowing for retail profit margins etc, that's on an altogether different scale to the numbers quoted in the RNS.

Can anyone suggest a rational explanation?

[someuwin] 10/3/2022 16:23

So they expect to manufacture 7,500 Ventive systems in the next 18 months.

So maybe 4000 over the next next 12 months.

From today's RNS - GBP7.5 million revenue in the twelve months to 30 June 2023.

So that's £1,875 revenue per unit.

so by 2025 (just three years away) 100,000 units would result in revenues of over £187m.

Not bad for a co valued at just £8m.

[someuwin] 10/3/2022 16:06

Article here has a few more details...



VENTIVE HEAT PUMP AND VENTILATION SYSTEM GETS UK MANUFACTURING BASE
10:20, 10 March, 2022

...Ventive and QM Systems plan to manufacture 7,500 Ventive Home systems in the next 18 months, rising to 100,000 systems by 2025. The new facility is expected to create 40 new jobs over the next 18 months.

...We expect market growth to be huge over the next decade, at a rate that hasn’t been seen for many years; it’s reminiscent of the central heating boom in the 1970s – but far quicker.

The production facility, co-developed with QM Systems, is the first of its kind and represents four years of research and development.