Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 13/7/2018 10:31

It's worth looking at the effect of the performance fee on the NAV.

At 31/12 IFRS NAV/sh was €3.96, and since then, 8.36m shares were issued under the preformance fee terms, so making a pro forma NAV of €3.64. The GBP/EUR rate is about unchanged at 1.13 over the period.

So on that basis the NAV was 322p after adjusting back.

The EPRA NAV was higher at 31/12 (€4.11) because it excluded the provision for the shares-based performance fee and other things. I guess therefore that the EPRA NAV will have fallen before getting any rise from property prices.

I'm not totally confident about all that: happy to be corrected.

[podgyted] 13/7/2018 09:56

Added more at 331 - seems almost too good to be true.

Find out next week.

GLAH

[clausentum] 12/7/2018 16:22

Woodford had 21% in May 2016, so he has made a good profit.

[nimbo1] 12/7/2018 15:36

He's suffering redemptions all the time and seems determined to buy uk house builders.

E.g. He sold his main funds holding in AZN, almost in its entirety to cover people bailing out of his funds.

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/money/woodford-slashes-astra-stake-as-redemptions-mount/a1104397

I see it as a good thing. I don't really like seeing him on the register of a share i own. I have been watching here for 6 months and he seems to be providing me with the opportunity.

[clausentum] 12/7/2018 15:19

Woodford from 21% to <5% in 3 months is quite a rapid divestment!

[nimbo1] 12/7/2018 14:46

woodford selling out completely by the looks of it - now at under 5%.

[nimbo1] 12/7/2018 12:07

Me too, I think summer months, woody redemptions and trade war fears (which are valid!) have created a bargain here. Unless of course people have stopped moving to Berlin without me knowing.

[rimau1] 12/7/2018 11:55

Thanks for posting Nimbo, I would certainly settle for a 20-30% normalised uplift in NAV this year! I too continue to add in the 330’s. Looking forward to a portfolio update which could land at anytime

[nimbo1] 12/7/2018 11:43

hxxp://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/phoenix-spree-the-berlin-property-play-with-more-to-give/a1117964

I reread this article with the views of some clever people - in particular the Miton global fund manager.

Purchased a few more just now.

[nimbo1] 11/7/2018 09:36

Out of interest a lot of European focussed holdings appear ill at the moment. e.g. Trg growth trust, moved from a discount of 0 - 11%.

But the market forces that make psdl a buy here are all positive ref Berlin - update should support. Plus level 2 shows good support at 3.30

[podgyted] 10/7/2018 18:01

Totally agree - I got some more at closer to 336.

(For others, if your interested, just google 'Berlin rental market 2018' and read a few of the articles that come up)

The only downbeat stuff I can find is from the Bundesbank which suggests some city properties are "overvalued". But they supply no basis for this, infact they ignore the basic laws of supply and demand. What they are actually saying is they wish property prices were lower as they are significantly above their historical levels. This ignores the fact they have a chronic housing shortage, especially in Berlin, where 30-80 people turn up to view a new 'on the market' property.

I love the fact that Warren Buffet has recently bought an up-market estate agent in Berlin.

Anyway, once again, time will tell.

[rimau1] 10/7/2018 17:36

I added at 335, agree on the price action being strange. We can expect an update any day now, as a pure Berlin play the current entry point appears too good to be true which worries me....spot NAV Dec’17 was in the 360’s and all market data suggests Berlin is still booming and still in mid cycle

[podgyted] 10/7/2018 17:05

I presume you did get that chance.

Can't understand the price action here - everything I've managed to get a hold of on the residential rental market in Berlin tells me it's going to be buoyant at least until the end of this decade.

Analysis of the German market always seems to highlight Berlin as the sweet spot.

Anyway we'll see shortly.

[nimbo1] 10/7/2018 09:45

we might get another chance today.

[rimau1] 09/7/2018 17:57

Amazing timing Nimbo.....very nimble on your trade at 333, I went to top up and it had already moved to 341! Great value ahead of what will surely be a positive revaluation and outlook statement.

[nimbo1] 09/7/2018 15:58

fee's don't bother me really - i know of unlisted property hedge funds that charge 2 and 20 - the key thing is are they worth it. Got some more at 333 anyway, fingers crossed.

[orinocor] 09/7/2018 15:45

--- I personally sold out after the announcement of the gigantic management fee which will knock around 8% off nav ---

WHAT!!!!

[nimbo1] 09/7/2018 15:33

thats what i hoped too but still seems v weak at the moment, may buy a few more at some point.

[clausentum] 09/7/2018 14:10

If the 12% holding of shares sold by Woodford is now in secure hands I am hoping that a good revaluation will bring out some new buyers and boost the share price

[riverman77] 06/7/2018 17:35

And I noticed Thames River the property specialist added. I personally sold out after the announcement of the gigantic management fee which will knock around 8% off nav, but might look to go back in at some point.

[jonwig] 06/7/2018 17:27

Wodford IM has sold down, but that was on the 3rd, though announced today. Late reporting does happen!

[nimbo1] 06/7/2018 15:30

probably will be notifiable jonwig - volume of 6 million shares

[davebowler] 06/7/2018 15:26

Because he has a massive outflow of funds?

[clausentum] 06/7/2018 15:21

Why would anyone sell 6m shares just before a revaluation?

[jonwig] 06/7/2018 14:50

nimbo - could even be notifiable: only 100m shares in issue.