Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[solarno lopez] 20/3/2020 10:58

They certainly do we used to call them young bucks ….bright but no life experience

[williamcooper104] 20/3/2020 10:47

Complicated mixes of assets and hedges put together by very bright people have a long history of blowing up in market crashes

[davebowler] 20/3/2020 10:28

I wonder if there is a mention in the latest accounts of stress testing a 33% fall in the markets??

[stemis] 20/3/2020 09:51

They claim (and I don't know how they get this) that a 20% fall in equity markets will add £0.1bn to their 5 year cashflow and solvency II surplus...

[boonkoh] 20/3/2020 08:21

I agree with scubadiverrThe key risk is their Assets Under Administration. Which they use to pay out annuities, etc.I can't find a breakdown what they invested in. Only in the last half year up till Dec 2019 results they "benefited from increased values of world equity markets". Suffice to say, all that value is now wiped out. And even safe assets like government bonds have seen drops in price during the recent market rout.If AUA drops, then Phoenix will need to dip into reserves to pay annuities, or then need to do a fundraising. I would not take as accurate the cash generation forecasts for this year and next 5 years on face value now.

[rcturner2] 20/3/2020 07:59

I have bought and sold Phoenix many times over the years and always made a profit and received good dividends. To me it is amazing how volatile the share price of this company is considering how boring and stable the underlying business is.

Back in at a price with a 4 at the front.

[eeza] 20/3/2020 07:57

They were also my thoughts, RCT, but the market appears to think differently. (atm)

[rcturner2] 20/3/2020 07:35

Phoenix should be a very safe investment in this market, as they are simply a business that pays out on existing annuities, releasing cash as pensioners die. They have their liabilities well covered and their holdings by law have to be very conservative. I would have thought that they will actually stand to gain from the increased death rate in older people.

[stemis] 20/3/2020 00:06

Report and accounts. There's a section which shows Illustrative Stress Testing on Base Case Five Year Target (cashflow). Circa page 4

[ianood] 19/3/2020 23:47

SteMiS: Very interesting, thank you. Are you using data from the report and accounts, or, other research?

[stemis] 19/3/2020 23:02

PHNX has lost £2.1bn in market cap. Expected cashflow in the next 5 years was £3.9bn. If current conditions persist over the 5 years, their sensitivity analysis suggest maybe that'll be £0.7m down worst case, although even that could be offset by increased mortality rates.

[tournesol] 19/3/2020 22:36

growthp

"...negative news is priced in, more than priced in and we will learn that it won’t be as impactful as we feared. it’s classic human behaviour. First you deny it, then you overreact…"


Sounds like you might be at the denial stage yourself.

[growthpotential] 19/3/2020 21:52

Disagree, a lot of negative news is priced in, more than priced in and we will learn that it won't be as impactful as we feared it's classic human behaviour. First you deny it, then you overreact

[schofip] 19/3/2020 11:33

Latest view on cnbc is that although shares are into oversold territory anyone buying shares now must accept that they are going to go lower still until the full effects of covid can be quantified.

[rcturner2] 19/3/2020 09:40

jonwig, when people examine the number of police and army personnel in this country then you realise how thin the blue line really is.

For example there are something like 80k supermarkets and similar in this country.

UK regular army = 140k approx (a lot of whom are not soldiers by any stretch).

There is simply not the manpower for anything like a serious civil breakdown.

[scubadiverr] 19/3/2020 08:53

Are Phoenix's investments publically detailed? Any market crash and possibility of casualties is surely likely to impact their capital and ability to meet their responsibilities is it not?

[richardbroughton] 19/3/2020 08:51

Not only is financial meltdown possible so is civil meltdown which is far more serious, that's why the Yanks are queuing at the gunshops. If people are stripping shelves and fighting over bog rolls in the first few days what's gonna be happening 3 months down the road, very worrying times! Won't take much for looting to start in the poorer areas of the big cities.

[w1ndjammer] 19/3/2020 08:47

looks like 400p on the cards....

WJ.

[rcturner2] 19/3/2020 08:11

I have bought into PHNX this morning now that my buy price has been hit.

[edmundshaw] 18/3/2020 22:59

@tournesol: Those stats are already out of date and probably too high...

[jonwig] 18/3/2020 18:48

Minerve -

Aviva have, and it's quite interesting:

[minerve 2] 18/3/2020 18:40

jonwig

Probably not.

[jonwig] 18/3/2020 18:35

Minerve - have any other insurers of banks made statements?
I genuinely don't know.