Pets At Home Share Discussion Threads

[alibx11] 15/6/2017 09:07

Likening DFS and Pets.... Apples and oranges ffs. Hope it's still down when I get home so I can buy some more, way too cheap.

[pugugly] 15/6/2017 08:53

Dividend was 5p -m Fall 9p - Probably just cautious extra 4p in case of futher retail deterioration (imo)

[guyswonga74] 15/6/2017 08:44

Overdone drop after divi pay out. Unfair cheap price at the moment. Way undervalued

[staylow2] 15/6/2017 08:29

DFS' profit warning won't help PETS today. Retail seems to be struggling enough.

[wllmherk] 14/6/2017 16:40

I read the results as you did bullor, I could not understand why the results resulted in such a sell off. Anyway bought a few after results and happy to hold meantime.

wllm

[guyswonga74] 14/6/2017 11:12

I agree. Although there will be some buyers today looking for the dividend

[bullorbear123] 14/6/2017 09:29

Really sure this is going to head back to £2.

Saw the price today, Saw the recent results and then saw the dividend coming tomorrow.
And can't believe it is this low.

Think the recent drop was speculative on the "subdued trading seen before" but actually the recent results were really good! IMO these should at the very least be back around £1.85.

[guyswonga74] 13/6/2017 09:20

Bought in today 14k of shares at 161p. Seems too cheap to me and divi on the 15th

[yump] 12/6/2017 13:09

FFS

Pet related sales value was not affected much by the recession.
Just Google it - the facts are out there.

If there is an issue here it will be concerning input costs, leases, footfall specifically into PETS stores etc.

Not any reduction in consumer spending on pets.

[justiceforthemany] 12/6/2017 12:21

Agree 100% with alibx11 & why I closed my short today.

[alibx11] 12/6/2017 11:22

Just as I said in my above post, speculators driving the price down regardless of proven business model which is still expanding and with improved profit margins. Heard all this before and results keep proving them wrong.

[pugugly] 12/6/2017 10:52

The Party's Ending for British Consumers The slowdown in spending is finally upon us


Well worth reading - Some interesting statistics - Bad news (imo) for all UK retailers PLUS of course the real mess made by GREY MAY !! I do not see Pets being able to swim against the tide but DYOR etc.
.

[yump] 11/6/2017 20:10

Some facts:

The number of pets has decreased in the last couple of years.
Pet related sales value was not affected much by the recession.
Pet food sales have been growing slowly, despite the number of pets decreasing.
Pet accessory sales have been growing and are forecast to grow for the next few years.

I just Googled various market data, so as not to get misled by individual anecdotes.

[alibx11] 10/6/2017 13:10

Beaufort Securities maintains it's buy rating, on 30 May if not already posted...not a dodgy crumbling income company the shorters would have you believe, just speculators trying to bring down an increasing income generating and still expanding company. Roll on Divi day.

Pets at Home (LON:PETS, 162.80p) – Buy

Pets at Home Group, the UK's leading specialist retailer of pet food, pet accessories, veterinary and grooming services, on Thursday announced its preliminary results for the 52 weeks ended 30 March 2017 ('FY2017'). During the period, Group revenue advanced by +7.2% to £834.2m, comprised of +2.9% increase in Merchandise revenue to £716.7m and +44.5% growth in Services revenue to £117.5m, against comparative period (FY2016). Like-for-like ('LFL') revenue growth for the Group was +1.5% during the period, comprised of +0.8% and +7.9% growth in Merchandise and Services, respectively. Gross margin declined by -0.35% to 54.2%, leading to statutory pre-tax profit of £95.4m, up +5.8% with basic earnings per share of 15.1p (FY2016: 14.6p). Excluding exceptional items, EBITDA increased by +4.7% to £130.5m while pre-tax profit rose +1.1% to £96.4m, leading to earnings per share of 15.3p, up +1.3%. Free cashflow stood at £64.6m (FY2016: £77.8m) and net debt was £153.7m (FY2016: £162.0m) at the period end, implying net debt to EBITDA (before exceptional) at 1.2x (FY2016: 1.3x). On the operational front, the Group opened 15 new superstores, 50 vet practices and 50 grooming salons during the period. VIP club active members increased to 3.7 million (FY2016: 3.4 million), while VIP card swipe rate (as % of revenue) stood at 68% (FY2016: 64%). Pets at Home's CEO, Ian Kellett commented "In an evolving consumer environment, we are taking steps to reposition prices on own label Advanced Nutrition and pet essentials and have made some initial changes to branded food lines. Encouraged by the reaction of our customers and having seen an improvement in Merchandise LFL to 1.0% in the 16 weeks since launch, we will move swiftly to deliver even better value. We are confident this is the right path for success and will give us a strong platform for sustainable future growth". The Group declared a final dividend of 5.0p per share, bringing full year dividend to 7.5p, flat year-on-year, to be paid on 14 July 2017.

Our view: Pets at Home reported good growth during in the FY2017, in line with the consensus Analysts' estimates. This was supported by a growth in all divisions, particularly strong in Services, with LFL growth of +7.9%. Within Merchandise (includes Food and Accessories, 85.9% of revenue), Advanced Nutrition was strong while Grocery food and wild bird food performed short. Accessories sold well and Health & Hygiene improved but was offset by aquatics accessories. In Services (14.1% of revenue), vet practices and grooming salons continue to perform strongly. Its joint venture veterinary also generated total income of £47.1m, up +24.6% against last year. The Group's ongoing investment in omnichannel is bearing fruit as it saw online revenue growth of +53%. Looking ahead, in FY2018, the Group warned that gross margin to decline by 1% to 2% due to price investment and adverse foreign exchange rate movement. Operational cost will rise by 4.5% to 5.5% as next increase in National Living Wage and Apprenticeship Levy kicks in, while ongoing store rollout (c.10 superstore, c.4-50 vet practise, c.40-50 grooming salons) is expected. The pet market has grown from +4% CAGR (2012-2014) to +4.5% CAGR (2014-2016) which is forecasted to grow at +4.5% over the next 5 years. Given Pets at Home's ongoing store rollout, we believe the Group is capable to expand its overall market share of c.20% further, attracting potential customer to its integrated 'one stop shop' stores. Its JV vet practices is also set to generate higher income as its centres mature (10+ years) with a potential to generate over £80m. The Shares are valued at FY2018E and FY2019E P/E multiple of 11.1x and 10.6x, along with dividend yield of 5.0% and 5.3%, respectively. Although gross margin decline is expected to squeeze the profit in FY2018, we expect investment in price to support better topline and LFL growth. The Group has strong balance sheet with leverage within the policy of up to 1.5x net debt to EBITDA (1.75x for appropriate acquisitions), while reiterated its dividend of at least 7.5p (policy is c.50% of earnings) in the FY2018. In view of its progress with management's confidence over sustainable future growth, Beaufort retains its Buy rating on the Shares.

[ignoble] 10/6/2017 10:08

I do think pet ownership is on decline.

We recently had our dog pass away and have said no more !
Very painful to lose a Dear Chum.

It is becoming very expensive to maintain an animal , insurance costs have become very expensive and our experience has been that it has not been easy to get the bill paid !
Inoculations become ever more expensive.

Much as we love having a dog in the home
It is a very expensive exercise.
Vets bills are huge

[staylow2] 09/6/2017 23:39

Yep, I agree with you in regards to timeframes.

[justiceforthemany] 09/6/2017 12:16

I was shorting this but am now really really worried about the dividend payment next week - will I as a shorter have to fund this?

Sorry new to this shorting so not sure.

Opodio 90p? Are you being serious?
I calculate this will be a P/E of 6.

Is P/E of 6 very low?

Also do you think the Brits will kill all their cats and dogs and poodles if hard times come?

Any advice appreciated on whether I should close my short and what to do about the dividend next week.

How likely is a buy out of Pets?

[justiceforthemany] 09/6/2017 12:10

This Liberum TP was actually done on results day 25/5 so wrong information.

[maurillac] 09/6/2017 09:25

depends on your timescale ! if pet continues to make decent profits the valuation will hold. people might be obsessed with broker guesses and charts but fundamentals still mean something !
m

[staylow2] 09/6/2017 07:26

I agree, the brokers have their own opinions. But let's take a look at the facts 1, the chart is down2, the price is down3, ever increasing short positions4, Director buying has done nothing for the share price 5, Sales increasing - no movement on share positive movement on price Unless the shorts all buy back, or there's a buy out, how will this turn around?

[opodio] 09/6/2017 07:25

waiting for 90p

[staylow2] 09/6/2017 07:20

Liberum Capital - no idea, I have a daily email summarising all broker up/down grades.