Petrotal Share Discussion Threads

[doughcyclone] 15/9/2021 11:25

New presentation up. 9H to commence drilling September 22.

[jp2011] 15/9/2021 08:48

Market response muted, hopefully TAL.tsx is more appreciative

[sleveen] 15/9/2021 08:19

Pleasing RNS.

[xxnjr] 15/9/2021 08:15

Very pleased with todays update :)

[johnhemming] 15/9/2021 08:05

Still it shows that the estimates of 15k bopd are in line with the company's estimates.

[spangle93] 15/9/2021 07:55

@Croasdalelfc, Yes, good spot.

In this reservoir, where there is good quality sand and the oil leg is underlain by a much bigger aquifer, the oil water contact will be (1) thin and (2) consistent across the unfaulted field.

So if the reservoir is encountered higher than anticipated in a relatively flat but wide structure, that translates to much more oil in place, and probably a longer period of flowing low water cut, especially with AICDs to prolong this initial period.

This is doubly important because 8H is right at the crest of the southern culmination, so that whole southern portion will be affected

Moreover if they previously modelled the southern part as lower than it turned out to be, it's not illogical to think that this correction will also be applied beyond 8H, meaning the structure near BS1X (?) might also be higher and contain more oil

[croasdalelfc] 15/9/2021 07:27

Is Spangle still here ? 'Well 8H targeted oil sand intersected 4 meters higher than prognosed'This is good for reserves estimate -isn't it?

[jp2011] 15/9/2021 07:04

RNS very very good news

[croasdalelfc] 14/9/2021 16:50

23904 barrels on 12th was likely 3 x 8k barges

[croasdalelfc] 14/9/2021 16:47

Effectively these are barge sizes, barges come in 4K, 8k and 20k sizes . Sometimes barges are doubled up ie 2 x 8k .The daily off take numbers from Perupetro reflect combinations of 4,8,16k . Ie they filled x number of barges of y capacity .https://www.petroperu.com.pe/english/petroperu-puts-into-operation-a-new-barge-that-will-transport-fuel-by-rivers-of-the-amazon

[fictitious1] 14/9/2021 13:40

Thommie - Thank you.

[thommie] 14/9/2021 13:35

44% of anticipated production for the rest of the year is hedged. all inside the onp, securing ca 62$\bbl for ca 1mio bbls. rest is unhedged

[thommie] 14/9/2021 13:32

chris relisten the last webcast and especially the q&a after. It's monthly. they already did 2 in Q3 since that secured full production besides water injection constraints even with onp closed since late july.

[chris_engel] 14/9/2021 13:13

@Thommie, I think the Brazil shipment figures are per quarter, not per month.

[fictitious1] 14/9/2021 13:02

Thanks for the detailed breakdown Thommie. I don't contribute much (hardly any!), but read with interest some very informed posts from a number of you guys.

A question if I may...

How does the hedging impact/offset(?) revenues. Don't quite follow the concept very well, but acknowledge some of the benefits (protection) again poo volatility.

[doughcyclone] 14/9/2021 10:27

Jp: Nah I don’t think they will restrain 8H during flush production. They have capacity to produce 20k bopd for 60 days even if onp is unavailable (august presentation page 17).

[thommie] 14/9/2021 10:17

JP. currently there are no limiting factors even with onp closed. (it's expected to resume normal operations soon)ptal is doing 2 240k shipments through manaus till end of september. so 480k alone plus 40k iquitos offtake plus 702k storage capacity (240k at station 1, 240k at station 5, 132k on barges and 50k at bretana). plus the possibility to do additional brazil shipments when 1x 240k/month isnt enough as he recently said after talking to the owner of the manaus company.btw netback at 70$\bbl brent is 41$\bbl. at the recently given lowered guidance for q3 of 9700bopd ave it will be 36mio netback, which should outpace capex even in Q3. In q4 at guidance of 16050bopd we would be looking at 60mio netback at 70$\bbl brent. add expected 22mio from true up revenue till end of 2021 and ptals net debt could turn to a net cash from the last reported 22,7m net debt at end of q2 2021!

[jp2011] 14/9/2021 09:56

Thommie, the limiting factors are storage and transport so expect more conservative production from 8H. BTW, 9H drilling which starts soon is a wide bore drill so they're expecting good production.PTAL have a roadmap to 24kbopd in the next 18 months roughly 3 times current rates

[thommie] 14/9/2021 09:31

john, so finally confirmation that 8H is online. like manolo said mid august it will start to produce in the first week of september. so everything on schedule this time. expect a rns the next days confirming avg production for the first 7 - 10days and the spud of 9H directly after finishing like it usually happened.I foresee 8H to produce at around 7000bopd in the first 30 days. at 70$\bbl we are looking at 15mio in revenue, so actually paying for itself in around 1 month after opex deductions.

[xxnjr] 14/9/2021 09:27

D12 Ave 8,953 +22.56% (over D12 Ave Aug 2021)

[thommie] 14/9/2021 09:14

charlie, dont know it really when it is registered for royalties by perupetro. I think you refer to what the price of the shipment will be. I remember manolo saying in one of the presentations that pricing is an avg of days before and after delivery in manaus, but Im not sure tbh, as I dont have time to listen to them again atm.

[charlie1712] 14/9/2021 08:15

I believe it's 5 days after fob Bretagna- this is the big benefit.

[johnhemming] 14/9/2021 06:27

I think the conclusion is that production has materially increased. I wonder if there is a link to the Nordic report on this.

Whichever way I would think the investment case has changed from predictions to reality. (on this point).

Annualised revenue at USD 70, 365 days, 15,000 per day of course is about USD380m

[doughcyclone] 14/9/2021 06:07

So is 7482. Average about the same if you remove both.