Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[grbaker] 14/10/2017 12:16

Could simply a transfer between the same owner. Still, you would think there would be some kind of holdings announcement on that.

[sparky333] 13/10/2017 09:13

So who bought 5% off POG guesses ?

[stoopid] 12/10/2017 15:21

Only "5%% are you serious wally? That's like what, 25% of the free float of shares??3m shares traded here can see the share price move 3% or 4% yet 180m traded hardly moves the price at all??

[davidlloyd] 12/10/2017 14:42

Yes, agreed. But to do nothing of any significance to the share price is very ODD indeed,(circa £12million worth). It reminds me I don't have a clue how this game works..... :-)

DL

[wallywoo] 12/10/2017 14:36

186M shares sounds massive, but actually only around 5% of the company!

[leodi5] 12/10/2017 12:45

in at 6.4 in august, topped up at 7.2 September, higher lows, happy to dream!
unless the banks call in the loans and we got bust, then, not so much..

[leodi5] 12/10/2017 12:06

manipulated to within an inch of its life, 186m trades, are the institutions getting
in while its still cheap, and were about to finally pop big time. I do hope so.

[stoopid] 12/10/2017 11:20

So, 180m shares change hands and hardly a flicker in the share price. And yet a few hundred thousand traded most days sends the share price down by around 2%.And people are suprised when manipulation is mentioned....

[sparky333] 12/10/2017 10:51

Big trades

[leodi5] 11/10/2017 13:04

a test of the 200ma which was I'm glad to see was rejected, hopefully last test for the foreseeable. onwards and upwards

[wallywoo] 10/10/2017 11:07

don't think the share price move is anything sinister. Few jitters in the gold market this week ,due to the american Treasury budget on Thursday (expected to strengthen the dollar and put pressure on gold).

[undervaluedassets] 10/10/2017 10:44

Top up looks sensible.

Performance of the company is up.

Price of gold is up.

This is a volatile stock and this is just noise.

[juju44] 10/10/2017 10:11

back to form

[sparky333] 10/10/2017 10:07

Gold up and closing in on $1300 again yet POG down 4% today.Very odd share this one !!!

[grbaker] 07/10/2017 15:19

One would hope so..! Getting rid of that curse-of-a-debt-guarantee would surely lift the share price

Fingers crossed here for a little bump in the share price here. Would be great, for example, if we could clear the 8.5p to 9p resistance band (assuming no negative news).

GLA.

[stoopid] 06/10/2017 09:49

The intwresting rhing to noye is near.the botrom.Point 3) the retiring of the IRC debt guarantee in 2018. This should significantly boost the share price if it comes to pass. That would reduce the debt profile by say $250m. The next hurdle would be finding $100m to repay the bond.....Surely these events could only boost the share price??

[undervaluedassets] 05/10/2017 15:10

appreciated Stoopid

[stoopid] 04/10/2017 07:25

It would appear debt is still an issue for some analysis/analysts but overall positive.

RRS and POG valuations modestly improve, but no ratings changes
For both Randgold and Petropavlovsk we have unchanged ratings, but target prices
have been revised upward. Randgold remains Hold rated with only modest upside to
our revised target of 7500p/sh (up from 6400p/sh previously), despite the stronger
production profile expected in 2H17. Petropavlovsk remains a Spec Buy rated stock, with a revised target of 12p/sh (11p/sh previously), with a 15 month derisking period ahead as it delivers the underground projects, flotation plant and POX plant.

Petropavlovsk has strong start to 2017
In mid September Petropavlovsk delivered one of the better set of numbers that we
had seen in some time. Production was a slight beat but stable with 2H16 levels,
resulting in better cash costs and EBITDA than we had anticipated. Cash cost and net debt guidance were directly in line with our forecasts as well. As set out in figure 13 below, total production for 1H17 was 232 koz vs 229k oz in 2H16.

We note that the company is on track to achieve FY17 production guidance of 420-
460 koz, with our CGe at 450k oz. We conservatively forecast realised pricing at
US$1250/oz in 2017 and even slightly below that in the coming year. However as
Figure 14 above sets out, we also have a lower cost profile forecast for 2018 as the transition to higher grade, lower cost underground ore is complete.
Pioneer underground transition to complete in 2017

At the moment, the overall cost base still includes diluted ore from Pioneer as the
mine is in its initial stages of underground transition. In 1H17 Pioneer costs came in at US$698/oz vs our forecasts at US$628/oz due to a higher proportion of diluted ore at the mine. Management expects to be past the undiluted ore phase by 2018(December/January timeframe on the mine plan). We forecast 2H17 Pioneer volumes
at 77k oz, vs management guidance in a range of 73-98k oz. Albyn still the profit driver in the short term. However the main profit driver in 1H17 was Albyn and we expect this to be the case over the coming 18 months. Albyn contributed 70% of group EBITDA during the period.

Albyn is currently in a higher grade area of the mine and we see it sustaining its 1.4g/t grade at least into 2H17. This allowed Albyn to deliver a US$406/oz cash cost during 1H17, substantially below 1H16 at US$628. However, from 2019, we expect the underground mines at Pioneer and Malomir to become more profitable than Albyn as the grade there normalises at around 0.7-1.0g/t.

POX Hub construction is also progressing on track and on budget
Management recently commented that the POX plant remains on time and on budget
to start commissioning in 4Q18. In the near term, POG expects to complete the
construction of the Malomir flotation plant with commissioning expected in early
2018. The POX hub construction is then the main focus in 1H18, with the autoclaves
expected to be complete by 3Q18. Dry commissioning of the autoclaves is forecast for 3Q18 with wet commissioning expected by year end 2018.

IRC on track for full run rate in 4Q17
There were no significant updates on IRC, but the company reiterated that the plant
has hit 50% capacity utilisation with just three ball mills. Repairs to the fourth ball mill are expected near term, with the remainder of commissioning to take place this year.We still expect POG management to present options to derisk the IRC commitment and improve POG’s IRC exposure by mid year 2018.

Increase target by 9% to 12p/share, maintain Speculative Buy rating
As set out in Figure 16 below, we come to a NPV valuation of US$451 mn. We have
used a steeply discounted NPV using a 13% discount rate (equal to the discount rate
we use on many exploration plays) as the execution risk at POG remains high. We
have increased our target price to 12p/share on the back of the improved price
profile.

From a debt perspective, the Net debt/EBITDA covenant looks slightly improved by
mid year 2018 to 2.3x, vs just over 2.4x on our last set of forecasts. We maintain our Spec. Buy rating until we gain greater clarity on POG clearing this covenant in 6-9 months’ time.

Derisking timeline appealing
We believe POG has one of the more interesting derisking timelines of all the stocks in
our coverage, with four major derisking events in the coming 15 months. We set them
out below in date order:
1) 2H17 - Pioneer transition to underground and successful production (waiting
for the higher grade ore, but transition underground successful)
2) 1H18 - Malomir transition to underground and flotation commissioning
3) Mid 2018 - Potential retiring of IRC guarantee upon IRC refinancing
4) Late 2H18 - POX completion and commissioning

We expect to hear more on events 1 and 2 in the coming 6 months, but remain
confident that they will be delivered.

[undervaluedassets] 03/10/2017 13:05

Rights issue or no .. last interims were pleasing and the price action seems to be confirming that.

The second - usually stronger half of the year is yet to come.

[srpactive] 03/10/2017 10:11

Thank you, I do feel there is going to a move to get
all the Russian gold miners into one or two very
large ones, consolidation will be the name of the game
in 2018 regarding Russian gold miners, dyor.

[stoopid] 03/10/2017 09:57

There is a nice piece/research note out from Cannacord Genuinity suggesting a target price for POG of 12p.in the next 12 months or so as it derisks with underground and POX coming online.....I will post it later

[srpactive] 03/10/2017 09:26

Can someone post the article in English or explain how I can read it
in English, please, thank you in advance.