Petroneft Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rockin robin] 25/8/2015 20:14

Wow. Loads of my oilers are b L U e today...apart from PTR. Amazin. The one share that has some long term potential & it falls as the Mkt rises.Is this share the anti-matter of everything that's sensible?

[granto2] 25/8/2015 17:16

Ravin, I went to cash with 70% of my short term active account, My entire long term account has gone to cash and short term bonds. I have steadily reduced PTR over the last weeks, this is as much to do with my personal current appetite to risk as it is to do with shares. PTR is a share I sold least of. The market is uncertain so I on the side lines awaiting the calm down.

[ravin146] 25/8/2015 16:53

Granto did I read correctly, you have cashed in some ptr?!

[granto2] 25/8/2015 11:04

I have gone to cash with a lot of shares until a clearer direction. That includes some here too. This time 18 months ago other firms were buying non producing oil and gas assets, with millions of Capex required. OIl India were quite wise here. While not complete PTR had 1 Oil flowing 2 much of the infrastructure in place 3 the future reserves. That's were the smart money went. In PTR's case all sure production is close to existing facilities, and on land, AND In a low cost environment. The situation is far from rosy, but it is far from grim as well. Lots of contractors happy to accept 'I'll pay you when we get the oil pumping contracts on rigs', so cash flow should not be to severe. Russians are hugely resourceful and enduring. The domestic market suppliers have a bottom line and we are at it. I think the dreams of big money here are on hold, but the fears of collapse are gone, we backed a great project here, pity PoO turned south so quickly and we didn't get the jackpot. Best of luck all. thats my opinion here.

[seangwhite] 25/8/2015 10:32

Looks like we are in 'batten down the hatches' mode for a while longer.
Even a good result on 502 could see the share price fall further.

VGLTA

[granto2] 25/8/2015 09:24

Ravin

I spoke to the company or with the company about License 67. I raised your concerns as they were the same as mine. The 3D is complete and it is in line with expectations. also, due to the low PoO nothing will commence here before 2017 at the earliest as the company focuses on low hanging fruit and short Hz wells, quick and cheap tie ins to existing facilities, and SIB development. But the 3D upheld the belief in the resource. It adds to the asset but PoO is against things at the moment.

[steelwatch] 25/8/2015 02:02

ravin - just search the document for all instances of the key word "reserves"


On a PC, hold down the CTRL key and simultaneously type f to open the search box. Probably similar on a Mac, but not tried this on a phone or tablet.

Details of interest regards Licence 67:

Licence 67 Highlights

• 3D seismic survey over Cheremshanskoye and Ledovoye oil fields.

• New Law on Mineral Extraction Tax (“MET”) relief for Tight Oil likely
applicable.



In the winter of 2013/2014, we acquired 156 km2 of 3D seismic data over the Cheremshanskoye and Ledovoye oil fields. This is high quality data that has helped to better define the structure and potential of the two fields. In October 2014, we received the next 5 year exploration extension for the Licence. We have no significant exploration commitments on the Licence in 2015 or 2016 and are currently reviewing the next steps in the development of the Licence with our partner Arawak in light of the current oil prices.

Unconventional Reserve Potential - Bazhenov Formation

The Bazhenov Formation is present throughout both Licence 67 and Licence 61. The Bazhenov Formation is the organic rich source rock that sourced 85% of the conventional oil fields in the West Siberian Basin. The Bazhenov has similarities to major US tight oil plays (Bakken and Eagle Ford) and is currently the subject of Joint Venture studies by major Russian and foreign companies to determine if the US technology (horizontal wells with multiple fracs) would be effective and economic in Russia. Recent legislation provides for zero MET for 15 years for Bazhenov Formation production. In Licence 67 oil shows were described in Bazhenov core samples in two of the prior wells. Given the attractive fiscal incentives, we are carefully following efforts within the industry to commercialise the potential of this resource.

[ravin146] 24/8/2015 21:28

Dbarron,Loll another prime example of 'moving goal posts and hiding weeds' as I like to say it now.I missed that comment in license 67, in effect that means 3d testing showed not enough reserve to commercial extract at current low oil prices. Shame it's not even said like that. Since the annual report there has not even been an update on what Arawak energy think of the area?Natlata and general may mop even more shares as this heads back to 4p or below. Pressure on bod is good but I would prefer either full buyout or stop buying lol

[seangwhite] 24/8/2015 20:41

The current market turmoil gives Natlata & Co to garner some more shares.Let's hope Saudi gets a bit of cold feet at the prospect of $30 Oil prices.VGLTA

[dbarr0n] 24/8/2015 19:54

ravin.
They never said they were submitted, they said they were being prepared for submittal.
They may have changed their minds about submitting because there was talk about new reduced taxes which may benefit licence 67.


18 dec 2014

Licence 67

The processing and interpretation of the 156.84 sq. km. of 3D seismic data acquired over the Cheremshanskoye and Ledovoye oil fields in Q1 2014 has been completed.

The reserves calculation for the two fields based on the 3D seismic data is being prepared for submittal and approval at the Russian State Reserves Committee in Moscow.

[dbarr0n] 24/8/2015 19:46

ravin146.. You are referring to the 3D seismic done on licence 67.

From the Annual report.

In the first half of 2014 PITC Geophysical Company acquired 156 km2 of 3D seismic data across the Ledovoye and
Cheremshanskoye oil fields. This is high quality data that has helped to better define the structure and potential of the two fields. In October 2014, we received the next 5 year exploration extension for the Licence.
We have no significant exploration commitments
on the Licence in 2015 or 2016 and are currently reviewing the next steps in the development of the Licence with our partner Arawak in light of the current oil prices.

[ravin146] 24/8/2015 19:40

Rns dec 14:Licence 61 -- Arbuzovskoye 106 well now in production at a stabilised average rate of 170 bopd -- Arbuzovskoye 103 well drilling ahead -- Drilling of Tungolskoye 5 horizontal well continuing -- Total production now at 1,850 bopd -- Seismic crew mobilised to the Sibkrayevskoye field Licence 67 -- Processing and interpretation of 3D seismic survey completed Pretty sure we were told last year about a reserve update end of last year. Above you see license 67 going to Russian authorities...wtf is going on, it nearly September?!

[steelwatch] 24/8/2015 19:32

ravin - figures for Dec 14 given in the AR. Will look later

[ravin146] 24/8/2015 18:47

Steel I'm pretty sure there are two seismic tests. One was meant to be released last year, hence why I say overdue. One was even sent to russian authorities to finalise lol so what's going on with that?! Moving goal post to look good imo. This Bod is too good at moving posts and hiding weeds imo. Just my view, but ey ho.

[steelwatch] 24/8/2015 17:56

Ravin - from the Annual Report:

Prior to the S-373 well Ryder Scott estimated the Sibkrayevskoye 2P reserves of 53 million bbls (26.5 mmbbls net to PetroNeft), making this the largest oil field discovered on Licence Block 61 to-date. Additional seismic data has also been acquired over the structure this past winter as part of a 1,000 km 2D seismic acquisition programme in the northern part of Licence 61. A development decision is expected in the second half of 2015 with a view to the field being brought into production in 2016 utilising a combination of horizontal and vertical wells. A reserve update will be prepared at the end of the year incorporating the new seismic and well data and there is good potential for a reserve upgrade here given the S-373 results and preliminary seismic interpretations.

[ravin146] 24/8/2015 17:09

Steel can spend more on capex but fundamentally the value of the product it sells- oil reduces significantly. I.e lower valuation. I think there is a balance between gaining currency advantage on capex and reducing revenue. Hence why I have said previously, with unknown oil price move, achieving 4000 won't increase the share price if oil keep dropping. Reserve upgrade is due and I'm not sure why there is a delay. Surely one is overdue?!

[steelwatch] 24/8/2015 16:13

Russian rouble hits new low as oil prices plunge further



"Lowest since 1998"

Should stretch $s a bit further

[granto2] 24/8/2015 13:23

PTR asked ( twice ) that our discussions not be quoted directly, however I asked permission to discuss here in a general sense. They agreed to that, so that's what I am doing. There is nothing commercially sensitive in their replies and I am following what they asked and requested.

[rockin robin] 24/8/2015 13:15

Nice one Granto...

[kevjones2] 24/8/2015 12:12

I think it was a discussion, Rav. Unless I'm misunderstanding I think Granto spoke with them rather than had correspondence other than introductory ones. Maybe I'm wrong.

[ravin146] 24/8/2015 11:34

granto can you post PTR's response on here as atm it is still your view on their discussion.

[granto2] 24/8/2015 10:58

I discussed T-503 with the company, On July 22nd the company announced it had a flow rate of 675bopd at that time. That is 100% the case. However, the average over the prior 5 days was an average of 550 bopd. In time this quickly fell back to 500 bopd. This is quite typical of Hz well. The company is pleased by this result and say it met expectations. I have a decent discussion on rigs and drilling and the advantages and opportunities that the different frilling rigs offer us. Russian standard, Top drives, Mobile rigs that can move etc etc. The land here/there is very marshy and the large exploration rigs can only drill one well a year, and then it must want there until the next year for winter roads. The local drilling firms are well used to this. The use and success of non top drive drilling rigs offers huge potential and more mobility etc. this was the focus of our discussion, and while production figures play a part in this, the objective is clearly to control cash, and focus on low hanging fruit using the standard russian rigs, also I imagine license 67 will not come into play for several years, 2017 at the earliest I estimate. In this low PoO environment this makes complete sense. The results from the 3D have not been released but I understand they should not throw up any nasty surprises and are consistent with previous data from the license there. I can say having discussed a range of matter and issues I found the mood and tone of the company to be cautiously upbeat and pleasant, I lot more technically professional and commercially focus than I gave them credit for. Having been through the pain of previous years they are very focused on cost control, I expect a steady ship here for the next few years, lots of tie ins, and careful planning. In a market where many Oil Firms will go under, PTR will prevail. No debt, already producing oil in a low cost, dollar-Ruble hedged market, infrastructure in place at a cost of $100m (paid for), a powerful JV partner. The golden question is where will the money come from to develop the SIB area. It will cost $20m to $30m to get this up and running. and double that as it expands. However, as we are already past break even here, any additional oil should give $10s of millions each year. Lets assume we get $10 a bbl profit, on 5,000 Sib barrels, by 365 days a year. = $18,250,000 P A. In this environment, its hard to make quick money in OIl… but PTR does offer long term prospects and is a safe house for Oil investors. DYOR - GLA

[seangwhite] 23/8/2015 21:44

RavThe BOD have managed to get themselves a reputation for being 'economical with the truth' by continually putting out RNSs with anomalies to put it politely.If the next RNS gives T502 initial flow at say 500+ and then gives PTRs total output at sub 3k we will need guidance on T503 and hence decline rate on the existing vertical wells.Let's hope for more clarity and of course a decent flow rate for both 502 & 503.VGLTA

[ravin146] 23/8/2015 20:23

Steel exactly my point, how far over will it continue...will give insight on the area and progress on achieving that target.Note bod said post cleaning that well will actually be up near 675...but went down?! No explanation in last rns.

[seangwhite] 23/8/2015 10:52

The T502 should be finished and it's results in the next RNS which will hopefully be fairly soon.Hopefully T502 will produce at similar rates to the initial 503 results.The continuing output on 503 will be of interest as a pointer to how the horizontal wells will perform in terms of time and rate of decline.VGLTA