Petroneft Resources Share Discussion Threads

[steelwatch] 21/4/2014 18:34

Irish stamp duty still applies until Irish Government removes it on ESM quoted - awaiting commencement order, but no firm date yet.

[gavinbell] 21/4/2014 18:21

RCTurner2

anybody who spent time reading and understanding the posting will see that, the calculation truly reflects the portion for PTR only (ie 50% after farm out).

and i quote (see 50% taken at the end)

"ie value attributable to PTR per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = USD 15.399m x 50% = USD 7.7m"

see here: www.worldstocks.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8388#p81055

RCTurner2
21 Apr'14 - 08:52 - 25539 of 25539 0 0


Gavin, are you taking into account the fact that after the farmout, they only receive half the income from the license?

[spudders] 21/4/2014 18:08

Oilman- get ready with your whooooooooosh. Aim shares stamp duty free from 28th. Good luck all ;)

[seangwhite] 21/4/2014 17:00

Naitlata should have a respinse to the deal out on Tuesday together with Davys notes.The deal seems ok in the circumstances of the dire financial straits PTR are in.The EGM could now be a non event.GLTA

[denis056] 21/4/2014 16:56

Amen and praise be to BOD. Vote for the BOD !!!!!!

[cfccfc1970] 21/4/2014 14:37

Amen to that Denis!!!

[denis056] 21/4/2014 13:56

The only true test is the markets and tomorrow morning is the acid test. I like the analogy above with Easter. On the third day he rose again. In the case of Ptr is a bit more than three days but Ptr has been resurrected !!!!!!!! Alleluia !!!!!!!!

[rcturner2] 21/4/2014 11:33

Gavin, no it doesn't.

[wheresmyyacht] 21/4/2014 11:16

gavin, don't forget, if it looks too good to be true, it usually is too good to be true.

[gavinbell] 21/4/2014 09:02

its not my calculation. nevertheless, if you read the whole calculation, it does take into account only 50%, ie the figures only for the 50% ownership of the licence, ie after farm out.

see calculation above - read till the end




RCTurner2
21 Apr'14 - 08:52 - 25539 of 25539 0 0


Gavin, are you taking into account the fact that after the farmout, they only receive half the income from the license?

[rcturner2] 21/4/2014 08:52

Gavin, are you taking into account the fact that after the farmout, they only receive half the income from the license?

[gavinbell] 21/4/2014 08:43

can anybody check this calculation for farm out PTR (petroneft)? apparently worth between 20-40p and could be more.

looking at chart, it seems on recovery now.

its in here:

hxxp://www.worldstocks.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8388#p81055

excellent news on the farm-out. (see RNS 17 April)

licence 61 alone worth at least 21p (potentially 41p + ).
licence 67 worth $$m
should shale gas/oil being explored, will be worth $$m

--------------------------

Licence 61 (which has 117m bbls per the website)

- 50% of which has been farm out for total value $85m (ie £51m)
- PTR now own 50% of 117m bbls ie 58.5m bbls


After farm out, PTR has no DEBT. Previously, all revenues from production were used to pay off monthly debt payment.

current production around 2400 bopd, and with DEBT free, all revenues now will go straight to PTR cash balance.


(see calculation below)

since wells are producing constant at 2400bopd, PTR is generating revenue after oil tax and opex at USD 7.7m per year

ie total revenue after oil tax and opex in 20 years, attributable to PTR will be 7.7mx20 = USD 154m


this USD 154m (ie GBP 92m) plus the value of farm out (£51m) = 92m+51m = GBP 143m is the value of PTR at the current production rate.

even at 2400 bopd currently, PTR valuation of £143m (around 21p) is several multiple of current market cap of PTR of £45m (at share price 6.4p)


if we are producing 4000bopd, we would be generating total revenue of USD 288m (around 41p worth).



should we able to increase bopd, cash revenue will be much higher than that.see rough calculation below on revenue. its only rough and i have tried to make it as accurate as possible. if not correct, please let me know. also, below only revenue, so still have to take into account overhead and other things. on the flip side, the production will be way much longer than 20 years, depending on the bopd, until the total oil reserves depleted.

------------------------


referring to their sept 2012 presentation page 32


first 2000bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 16.74x 2000 = 33,480

next 400bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 23.24x 400 = 9,296

total revenue for the first 2400bopd per day = 33480+9296=USD 42,776

so, per mth = 42,776x30= USD1.283 million
so per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = 1.283x12 =USD 15.399m

ie
value attributable to PTR per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = USD 15.399m x 50% = USD 7.7m


if we are producing for at least another 20 years, so, total profit to PTR will be 7.7mx20 = USD 154m revenue after oil tax, and opex.



---------------------------

note:
the higher oil price, the higher revenue will be generated. the above calculation based on $105 per barrel (and domestic price of 45% of export price)

assume production constant at 2400bopd.

for additional 100bopd (after 2400bopd), PTR will generate revenue after oil tax, opex and debt, PER YEAR = 23.24x 100 x 360 days x 50%= USD 0.42m



---------------------------

scenario 1:
if PTR able to increase production to 3000bopd, PTR will generate revenue of
= 7.7m+(0.42x6)= USD 10.22m per year

if wells are producing for at least another 20 years, total profit to PTR will be 10.22x20= USD 204m revenue after oil tax and opex



scenario 2:
if PTR able to increase production to 4000bopd, PTR will generate revenue of
= 7.7m+(0.42x16)= USD 14.42m per year

if wells are producing for at least another 20 years, total profit to PTR will be 14.42x20= USD 288m revenue after oil tax and opex

[nash81] 21/4/2014 01:53

PTR

worth 21p - 41p

hxxp://www.worldstocks.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8388#p81055

excellent news on the farm-out. (see RNS 17 April)

licence 61 alone worth at least 21p (potentially 41p + ).
licence 67 worth $$m
should shale gas/oil being explored, will be worth $$m

--------------------------

Licence 61 (which has 117m bbls per the website)

- 50% of which has been farm out for total value $85m (ie £51m)
- PTR now own 50% of 117m bbls ie 58.5m bbls


After farm out, PTR has no DEBT. Previously, all revenues from production were used to pay off monthly debt payment.

current production around 2400 bopd, and with DEBT free, all revenues now will go straight to PTR cash balance.


(see calculation below)

since wells are producing constant at 2400bopd, PTR is generating revenue after oil tax and opex at USD 7.7m per year

ie total revenue after oil tax and opex in 20 years, attributable to PTR will be 7.7mx20 = USD 154m


this USD 154m (ie GBP 92m) plus the value of farm out (£51m) = 92m+51m = GBP 143m is the value of PTR at the current production rate.

even at 2400 bopd currently, PTR valuation of £143m (around 21p) is several multiple of current market cap of PTR of £45m (at share price 6.4p)


if we are producing 4000bopd, we would be generating total revenue of USD 288m (around 41p worth).



should we able to increase bopd, cash revenue will be much higher than that.see rough calculation below on revenue. its only rough and i have tried to make it as accurate as possible. if not correct, please let me know. also, below only revenue, so still have to take into account overhead and other things. on the flip side, the production will be way much longer than 20 years, depending on the bopd, until the total oil reserves depleted.

------------------------


referring to their sept 2012 presentation page 32 (


first 2000bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 16.74x 2000 = 33,480

next 400bopd:
revenue per day after oil tax and opex = 23.24x 400 = 9,296

total revenue for the first 2400bopd per day = 33480+9296=USD 42,776

so, per mth = 42,776x30= USD1.283 million
so per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = 1.283x12 =USD 15.399m

ie
value attributable to PTR per year = revenue after oil tax and opex = USD 15.399m x 50% = USD 7.7m


if we are producing for at least another 20 years, so, total profit to PTR will be 7.7mx20 = USD 154m revenue after oil tax, and opex.



---------------------------

note:
the higher oil price, the higher revenue will be generated. the above calculation based on $105 per barrel (and domestic price of 45% of export price)

assume production constant at 2400bopd.

for additional 100bopd (after 2400bopd), PTR will generate revenue after oil tax, opex and debt, PER YEAR = 23.24x 100 x 360 days x 50%= USD 0.42m



---------------------------

scenario 1:
if PTR able to increase production to 3000bopd, PTR will generate revenue of
= 7.7m+(0.42x6)= USD 10.22m per year

if wells are producing for at least another 20 years, total profit to PTR will be 10.22x20= USD 204m revenue after oil tax and opex



scenario 2:
if PTR able to increase production to 4000bopd, PTR will generate revenue of
= 7.7m+(0.42x16)= USD 14.42m per year

if wells are producing for at least another 20 years, total profit to PTR will be 14.42x20= USD 288m revenue after oil tax and opex

[seangwhite] 20/4/2014 23:21

Quiet on the BB is everyone waiting for Tuesday.The release of the RNS on Maunday Thursday makes one think of the Easter ethos of One rising from the dead- a portend of PTRs share price action next week - maybe.GLTA

[adamnw] 20/4/2014 19:09

Surfer2,

That is my belief as well.

I am long and will continue to hold, despite short term gains (which I expect to see in the near future as a result of this recent deal) until such time as Sib is drilled.

GLA

[surfer2] 19/4/2014 19:12

i reckon the sibkrayevskoye field on license 61 is what the tussle was about. successful step out wells could make it hundreds of millions of barrels imo

[jyoti1] 19/4/2014 19:00

Oil India declares 110% interim dividend Oil India has declared interim dividend of Rs 11 per share (i.e. 110 percent) for the year 2013-14. Dividend is payable on and from February 05, 2014. Payment will be completed on and before February 25, 2014.

Read more at: hxxp://www.moneycontrol.com/news/announcements/oil-india-declares-110-interim-dividend_1032720.html?utm_source=ref_article

THIS IS CALL OIL INDIA LTD :)

[man1] 19/4/2014 15:29

Is a price monitoring extension a good thing or bad ? Looked at a few explanatuions on here , says it's when closing price is 5% away from the average price of the day .

[denis056] 19/4/2014 14:44

BMW you are right. I dont think a large international oil co like OIL are going to invest in Ptr unless they see huge upside. Ptr bring an established but as yet untapped oil field to the table. Also there is no reason acquisitions cannot be done or even OIL get involved in exploiting Lic 67. Shale is also the buzz word right now. Maybe the Ptr shareholders enforced patience is about to pay off.

[bmw30csl] 19/4/2014 14:29

Denis, that's a good point on acquisitions, shale angle here is also interesting as the Bazhenov is already producing.

[vyke82] 18/4/2014 21:08

12p. I will buy at open.

[telegraph1] 18/4/2014 20:37

10 to 12 p

[jyoti1] 18/4/2014 19:52

How much will be share price on Tuesday at 4:30 pm ? Please give me your opinion ?