Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[killman2] 28/1/2020 08:26

SFO must be feeling quite good about itself after it just announced that Airbus is settling bribery and corruption charges worth about $3bn...where does that money go?

Maybe good against companies but individual charges seem to be dragging.

[11_percent] 28/1/2020 08:22

Does anyone really think this is the bottom?

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No.

[d1nga] 27/1/2020 13:03

No I thought it was 357p

[binarypilot] 27/1/2020 12:56

what a chart.

18 pounds to 3 and a half.

Does anyone really think this is the bottom?

[11_percent] 27/1/2020 10:39

PR = 4.47
Divi = 8.5%

Cant go any lower....LOL.

Lesson = don't bet against the shorters.

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"nah just China sneezing"......its called Kung Flu I believe.

[spob] 27/1/2020 10:37

i'll have a few of these, first unit @ 341p

will buy more if goes much lower

see how it goes

[pogue] 27/1/2020 10:04

nah just China sneezing and causing the oil price to fall.

[johnrxx99] 27/1/2020 09:38

Thanks for that guys. I'll keep watching then. I sold a long while ago and thought I'd come back and look as the fundi's look good.

[ny boy] 27/1/2020 08:57

Technicals not looking great at present, needs to be back above 357p previous support.

Supports Support1: 357.60 Support2: 297.52
Resistances Resistance1: 397.40 Resistance2: 422.00

[dr_smith] 25/1/2020 09:11

Pogue. Wow. Big thank-you for your long but interesting and informed reply with coutry variations.
It's a tough nut to crack with different laws/practices in different countries with world trade. It does seem from your post though that we, as in the world, has progressed, atleast in reducing bribery & corruption.
I am retired now but used to video production and 10 years ago I'd frequently record seminars of a Barrister updating employees of a big city commodity merchant/trader on the latest statute law and associated case law, so they could stay cleaner than clean in the face of ever increasing anti-money laundering laws where you have to go one step beyond being "innocent". I recall Rusian money through Cyprus was a known hot route.

Given your comment on FCPA debate, adds ballast to my gut that SFO are likely influenced into not being too agressive for national interests.

[pogue] 24/1/2020 18:27

DR_SMITH
the reality in the industry is that I am pretty sure bribery still goes on but have no first hand experience of it. Oddly French companies seem to be winning a lot of contracts in Africa just now where UK based ones seem to always loose out in the bidding stage, coincidence I am sure. There is a change in some Arab countries though I have seen first hand KNPC employees being incredibly worried about being perceived as corrupt but then there is still capital punishment there and this was a sensitive project due to it being closed down a few decades previously due to extreme corruption. The vast majority of that project had not been won by a UK company I should add despite our anti bribery legislation. Even America has the bribery rules but its the enforcement of them is what is important and the UK seem more keen to stamp out companies trading overseas than anyone else. Below is an extract talking about the possible effects of the US Foreign Corrupt Practices act, something none of our politicians have read clearly as continue to emit strong virtue signals to the rest of the world whilst shackling our companies.

The FCPA is subject to ongoing scholarly and congressional debate regarding its effects on international commerce. Scholars have found that its enforcement discourages U.S. firms from investing in foreign markets, particularly those where graft, bribery, and other forms of corruption are endemic.[3] This coincides with the well established observation that companies engaging in mergers and acquisitions in emerging markets face a uniquely increased level of regulatory and corruption risk.

In the UK we are forever having to do tests to check we are upto date with what is classed as bribery. Practically any interaction with a client or a vendor can be bribery if you are not careful. I knew a procurement girl that would not even take a pen from a vendor such was the rules at BP, I saw her refuse such an offer when she turned up to a meeting without one.

The law in the UK is very rigorous and leaves little wriggle room. The link below shows how a company can get prosecuted even if they have a rogue employee they know nothing about and unless they have the training in place they will get convicted hence the training progammes. I assume this will be one of the charges against PFC.
hxxps://www.rahmanravelli.co.uk/articles/the-us-approach-to-bribery-involving-foreign-officials/
'The UK’s Bribery Act also has the added provision of offences whereby an organisation can be incriminated if it fails to prevent bribery: Section 7 of the Act states that a commercial organisation will be found guilty of a bribery offence if a person associated with the organisation has been found guilty of bribing another individual. The only defence that the organisation can have is that it had adequate procedures in place to protect against bribery and corruption. If the organisation cannot demonstrate that it has implemented such adequate policies it will be at risk of prosecution.'

[dr_smith] 24/1/2020 14:44

Cybernet53.
Re your reply, I have much experience:
"I don't think it's nice, you laughin'. You see, my mule don't like people laughing. He gets the crazy idea you're laughin' at him."
..experence on Clint quotes that is ;-)

On contracts and back-handers, what is current state of industry?
Does it still happen in some countries?

On SFO, they do play a dangerous game in penalising UK companies if rest of world play by different "bribe tolerant" rules. I therefore believe SFO will be under pressure to be seen to do right and legal thing but political/UK PLC movers and MP's will be wary of shooting themselves in the foot, so rather than fine, let it drag on with hope of forgetting about it. If other countries still play by dirty rules, then they will prosper at the cost of those who have to play by bribe free laws.

IMO :-)
Dave

[cybernest53] 24/1/2020 13:28

G'day Folks... @Spob Many thanks for those trial updates.. very helpful, cheers!

My view is somewhere between pogue, D1nga's and paa65's 3rd scenario.

Once the case for the defence gets going the SFO's prosecutors are going to find difficulty explaining why earlier charges were dropped. Also, the issues between the SFO's former head of the case, Tom Martin, who was dismissed "for swearing at" US Department of Justice officials, and what their differences were, will be problematic for the prosection, I think!

These factors will raise questions and muddy the case for the prosecution and will probably lead to a guilty verdict but with mitiigating evidence reducing the weight of guilt of the accused. As for 'other parties' (PFC), they will get little mention, if at all. The accused will most .probably be found guilty but damage to PFC will be minimised.. but of course, I may be wrong. :)

Whatever the outcome, I think most of the damage to PFC's share price has already been done, including the shorting over the last month or so, as 11_percent rightly points out.

At these levels, the share price is ridiculously low! I am reminded of Harry Callaghan "Do you feel lucky punk?" :) Like D1nga, I do... and so do many other small PI's apparently, judging by a good volume in small buys (some not so small) so I too have taken a little further punt today! GLA!!

[11_percent] 24/1/2020 12:20

Most likely : PFC do not get mentioned but traders/shorters take advantage of the fact that every day during the four month trial, there is a risk of bad news for PFC.

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I will go for "most likely" case.

The shorts are up, so they will push the share price down (they already have)……...same as WoodGroup.

[d1nga] 24/1/2020 10:47

Worst case scenario has been and gone, if the evidence was that strong the defendents would have crumbled by now, at the stage they're at it isn't going to happen now

[timmy11] 24/1/2020 10:43

look what they did to wood grp they brought share down to 3.17 and now it is
at 3,95

[paa65] 24/1/2020 09:59

I see three scenarios for PFC with regard to current Unaoil/SBM court case.Best case : Judge dismisses the case part way through on the basis that the evidence is too poor to put to a jury. This has happened with other SFO cases.Presumably SFO would then close the PFC case too.Worst case : One of the defendants decides to spill the beans as a plea bargain and implicates PFCMost likely : PFC do not get mentioned but traders/shorters take advantage of the fact that every day during the four month trial, there is a risk of bad news for PFC.

[d1nga] 24/1/2020 09:42

I'm loading up down here, remember the jury must find guilt beyond all reasonable doubt, I reckon there will be enough doubt to not secure a conviction....
Time will tell.

[warranty] 24/1/2020 09:23

Exactly timmy11, we know they won’t investigate US or other companies. Everybody and I do mean everybody, knows that to win contracts in that area, it was necessary to oil the wheels and it’s simply ridiculous to suggest otherwise. Why is it that this country seem to want to destroy perfectly legitimate companies just to appear to be saints?

[timmy11] 24/1/2020 09:14

after the iraq war us companies got the majority of contracts

dont tell me there were no bribes there?

will the sfo investigate us companies ???

[pogue] 24/1/2020 08:50

Clearly if Unaoil get off then all companies, including PFC, that allegedly used them to bribe Iraqis will get off too. I don't think Unaoil execs have a cat in hell's chance mind you its just about 'how guilty' they are proven and how that feeds down to the individual companies that used their services. The case will also give glimpses of how the SFO intend to prosecute the client companies of Unaoil I suggest.

[markbelluk] 24/1/2020 08:35

Thanks spob

John the SFO investigation into PFC directly hinges entirely through Unaoil I believe

[spob] 24/1/2020 08:03

yes i think it is worth following the case

[paa65] 24/1/2020 08:01

Yes it is relevant.Even though the court case is about Unaoil and SBM, Petrofac also used Unaoil for several years and the SFO have had an investigation into PFC open since May 2017.One PFC exec pleaded guilty to bribes last year. So far the SFO have failed to pin any more charges on PFC, but who knows what might come out in the current court case.Four more months of uncertainty for PFC it seems while this case progresses.