Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[d1nga] 17/9/2019 18:52

Saudi energy minister just stated Saudi oil supply is fully back on line.
I say that is bs
Also states drones launched from Iran, its going to get messy IMO
1 either decrease sanctions, no chance
2 retaliation in Iran, unlikely
3 Iran repeats another attack v likely imo.

Rinse repeat until 2 or 1 takes place.

[pogue] 17/9/2019 14:52

Why haven’t Saudi hit Iran in retaliation of the other drone strike on their pipeline on the same day as the tanker strikes? They are not going to do anything unless their minder the USA backs them and Trump will do nothing to increase the price of oil as it loses him votes. Trump is trying to get out of the Middle East not get more involved.

[markbelluk] 17/9/2019 12:37

Very rarely does the market operation rationally, dealing in facts and stats (e.g we saw a 20% jump in poo yesterday on a max 5% global hit on an oversupplied commodity)

Im more interested in looking at the impact this event has had on oil sentiment. Its impossible to quantify but if the market feels that oil is now vulnerable (inc war), indeed been targeted this will continue to have a significant effect on the price.

[pogue] 17/9/2019 10:42

The oft quoted 5% of world production is not strictly accurate as I mentioned before Saudi was bearing the brunt of the OPEC cuts so there is absolutely no guarantee it was operating at full capacity in fact I would say a certainty. Add in the fact other OPEC countries have cut production that can easily come onto the market.
The plant will restart soon but not at full capacity as they did not hit control rooms only individual units. I am beginning to think the damage has been exaggerated as the fires we saw on news reports don’t seem to be reflected in the damage done to the plant. Something I am trying to get more info on.
Worldwide there is glut of oil its in storage all over the place it will take time for that to rundown
Trump has said he will open the strategic reserve so that adds more oil in.
OPEC are claiming they have enough in reserve to balance the market not something they would say unless they believe it as they have been trying to drive up oil prices with cuts for a while
hxxps://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/uae-energy-minister-opec-has-capacity-to-plug-supply-shortfall-if-needed-1.910888

Regards hitting Iranian oil facilities who would do that? The US will not do that as Trump a) wants to keep oil prices low & b) does not want to start a war as he is an isolationist, read some off what he drivels on about, the press misrepresent what he says a lot you need to read the native gibberish to understand him, sometimes very hard to follow mind you.

[wolfhound1] 17/9/2019 10:09

So I guess the 2 question That are occupying my tiny mind are ...

1.if 5% of world supply is potentially out of action for say 6 months coming into the winter period how much will that erode into US reserves and therefore escalte oil prices ?

2. if there is a proportionate strike back on Iranian oil production as a retaliatory action, that will force historic iran oil buyers into main market.... so how might that impact 1 above ?

[11_percent] 16/9/2019 16:17

Ok, cheers.

[pogue] 16/9/2019 09:35

11_percent
Read all that stuff last night, and a lot more. I have now seen the satellite pictures of the site and the damage is very well targeted they have taken out 5 spheroids and 5 out of 18 stabilizer columns personally I would have gone for the control rooms but those are probably in explosion proof buildings as the Saudis have been building up protection there since an attack a few years ago that failed. I would say repairs are going to take minimum 6 months assuming they can source the bits on accelerated order or may have some in spares but a year to get it all back working I suggest. What production they can do with what is left is the question. I am assuming I am not the only one to look at the pictures so better production based people will have worked out better what is possible and that will be feeding it into the market. Much of what I read did not take into account other sources of oil coming on the market which is missing a very important point bear in mind OPEC just voted on Thursday to maintain production cuts a lot of which were actually by Saudi.

[pogue] 16/9/2019 08:47

Well after all the end of the world stuff in the media I read last night the PoO went up 20% and is now currently 8% up and falling. There was a glut of oil before the strike and now Trump as expected has opened up the strategic reserve, pretty soon other OPEC countries + Russia will gear up production and the shale oilers will do their best with their limited pipeline capacity to do similar. I think the peak may have past barring Trump deciding he is not going for re election and attacking Iran or Iran/Houthies doing another drone strike. The latter is a possibility the former highly unlikely I suggest. Who knows though seems we are heading into uncertain times again. Place your bets...

[pogue] 15/9/2019 14:09

All very confusing just now, the Saudis are claiming they are going to be back on line tomorrow not convinced but who knows. Trump has not tweeted anything yet. There are plenty of supplies of oil round the world and I am pretty sure Trump will open up the strategic reserve to keep oil price down if he has to he was nearly opening it up just because of high oil prices recently never mind when he can claim an emergency. Going to be a lot of movement next week one way or another.

[notimpressed] 15/9/2019 07:07

the saudis attack their own facility to drive up POO

[wolfhound1] 14/9/2019 22:47

FT is expecting a sharp price in Oil when markets open - some 50% of Saudi production (5mn b.p.d.) have been affected.

Petrofac expertise might be in big demand........

The big fear in terms of oil is worlds supply from a major producer like Saudi may now be susceptible to more sophisticated attacks that are hard to defend against.

US via Pompei has tweeted that they believe Iran are to blame given the sophistication of drones, and just as it appeared Tweety was about to have a chat now he fored Bolton.... so just a matter of time before the whole middle east kicks off....$100+ IMHO is a distinct possibility in coming months...

I suspect shorts might re-evaluate there outlook pretty soon.

[d1nga] 14/9/2019 16:33

Take your pick long or short lol

Also how can Trump now decrease sanctions on Iran who back the houtis attacking USA ally S Arabia?

Long is the bias for a while yet imo

[pogue] 14/9/2019 11:43

Wolfhound I told u about the GS ramping for $200 oil at the time lol anyway this time the global indicators are all against oil going up Trump wants it low and the China US trade war is killing demand. If that actually gets solved Trump will then goto war on EU so no respite in sight.
Very interesting attack on Saudi oil facilities wouldn't rule out an inside job there to get the oil price up.

[killman2] 14/9/2019 11:10

Saudi Arabia oil facilities ablaze after drone strikes...

The Abqaiq plant turns sour crude into sweet crude, producing up to 7 million barrels a day. Aramco says it is the world's largest "crude oil stabilisation plant".

More attacks planned. Hopefully no one injured...

Could this be the onset of oil price rises to $100...imagine not the way the Saudis wanted it though.

[wolfhound1] 14/9/2019 02:18

Pogue - I am always suspect on GS ever since they were selling ABS/MBS to clients as the holy grail whilst going short them on their own book......worth noting back then that they were talking about $200 oil.......

GS have also been trying to get in on Aramco IPO which means they will have to start pushing oil price up to get it to where Saudis will be happy for ipo that could be as high as $100

If US and China do a deal and we also get EU stimulus we migt just see further heavy draws on reserves..... and further cuts by OPEC + Russia

I guess time will tell

[pogue] 11/9/2019 21:06

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Slides-As-Trump-Considers-Easing-Sanctions-On-Iran.html
WTI prices were jittery on Wednesday morning, rising initially, but falling back below yesterday's lows, after headlines suggesting Bolton was fired after disagreeing with Trump's desire to ease Iran sanctions to get a meeting with Rouhani.

As Bloomberg reports, President Trump discussed easing sanctions on Iran to help secure a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani later this month, prompting now former National Security Advisor John Bolton to erupt, and "argue forcefully" against such a step, according to the report.

[killman2] 11/9/2019 13:21

breakout...next resistance 460...