Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[pogue] 02/9/2019 08:06

Saudi have tried to get the Armco float of a couple of time but they could not get the oil price up. They have lost a lot of power to control the oil price due to the shale boom. As for a stable Saudi Trump is doing his best to pull out of the Middle East I posted an article a while back that suggests the Saudis are turning towards China and Russia for defence due to the American’s lack of willpower to put their men on the line for them. That should provide stability but it’s a big change and there maybe interesting times during the change over assuming Trump stays in power. All I see going forward is a vast oversupply of oil only held in check by Trump sanctions on Iran and Venezuela if he makes peace with either or he loses the election then all that oil is going to hit the market. He is also hitting the consumption side with his trade war. Trying to predict the oil price with him in charge is a lottery.

[wolfhound1] 02/9/2019 00:07

I suspect Peak Oil price will arrive around the time of Aramco IPO....perhaps sometime next year or year after.

When (not if IMHO) Aramco IPO's it will be the largest IPO ever...Saudi need it ...that can't keep tapping into the capital of soverign wealth fund to pay running costs to keep populace happy, furthermore west needs a strong Saudi to maintain status quo in middle east and a nemisis for Iran's ambitions in region. For a susccessful IPO by Saudi standards Oil price will need to rise between now and IPO peak IMHO....

Current valuation of Aramco are about $1.3 trillion to $1.5 trillion - they want $2 trillion - so that implies they need a heafy 25 - 45% rise in the price of Oil up towards $80+ per barrel......

[pogue] 31/8/2019 10:59

Risk tolerant is the word as you betting on the oil price which is going to go up maybe for a week or two with hurricane Dorian but more longer term nobody is feeling bullish. From the analysis posted I suggest the following paragraph is the only one worth looking at



'More critical perhaps are factors affecting demand: oil & gas-field services tend to be highly sensitive to energy prices where on a supportive view, OPEC appears better-organised as a cartel (why petrol prices have risen); but beware also how oil prices fall whenever recession fears strike markets, anticipating lower demand.'

So if you think the world economy is looking good right now then invest if not consider it a coin toss investment. I am in the latter camp.

[killman2] 31/8/2019 05:06

love Edmond Jackson's report...my sentiments exactly...last line BUY (for risk-tolerant investors)

[cybernest53] 30/8/2019 16:56

Edmond Jackson's report is a very good, comprehensive assessment, I think. I would go along with his coclusions... I guess I am one of the "risk-tolerant investors" he mentions! Thanks for sharing that link wallywoo! :)

[wallywoo] 30/8/2019 15:01

oh ok, behind the times as usual, thanks paa65. Seems strange that they are pleading guilty and the case is 6 months away though. Still other companies that are just as implicated as PFC seem to be able to pay a fine and walk away. It has been well over 2 years and they have been unable to dig up any more dirt on them.

Lets wait and see, this moves fast when the trend changes

Worth a read, for a PFC tip with risks:

[paa65] 30/8/2019 14:24

WallywooThe Guardian article on 25th June was based on industry sources close the investigationBut I believe the SFO's own website on 19th July saying three Unaoil employees have been charged trumps the Guardian rumour. https://www.sfo.gov.uk/2019/07/19/former-unaoil-executive-pleads-guilty-to-conspiracy-to-give-corrupt-payments/

[killman2] 30/8/2019 14:20

last chance to get in before PFC explodes...imho

[oohrogerpalmer] 30/8/2019 13:47

Be interesting to see what price this would climb to IF they did a deal with the SFO !!!

[wallywoo] 30/8/2019 13:31

paa65: I think you are wrong on the SFO investigation:

1) SFO dropped the cases against Unaoil 2 months ago:



2) Oil Companies in the states has been paying fines and moving on with similar claims with the FSA in the states

3) PFC clearly state (for the first time since early 2017 when this hit) that they want this sorted asap. From recent results:
"SFO INVESTIGATION

No charges have been brought against Petrofac, or any officers or current employees. Petrofac continues to engage with the SFO and will respond to any further developments as appropriate. We are focused on bringing this matter to closure as quickly as possible and believe this is in the best interests of all stakeholders."

I think news will come very soon, especially since they want it done with (£13B potential new orders would put a lot of reasons to)

[pogue] 30/8/2019 13:17

The bad news is the outlook for oil over the next 12 months is not good with large surpluses looking likely however this can change in the time a tweet can be typed.
I sold half of the holding I had left at par today. Keeping the other half incase I am wrong.

[oohrogerpalmer] 30/8/2019 12:22

I would think the first we know about the completion of the SFO investigation will be some press leak that they have agreed to pay a fine.
Can't see it being in the next 12 months though.

[paa65] 30/8/2019 12:06

Yes - shorters do have to pay the divi to those who have loaned out the shares - but given that the share price usually goes down by approx the dividend amount it's not a loss for the shorters.As regards the "FSA" I think they meant SFO. Having read SFO news items (google it - the SFO publish significant items of progress on their cases) I can't see the PFC case closing yet for two main reasons.1. David Lufkin - ex Petrofac - pleaded guilty in Feb 2019 to making corrupt payments and offers in Iraq and Saoudi whilst a Petrofac employee - although neither the company nor other employees and directors have been implicated.He still hasn't been sentenced - so presumably SFO are looking for more or perhaps plea bargaining with him.2. In July one Unaoil exec pleaded guilty to corrupt payments to win contracts for their client SBM offshore. Three other Unaoil employees have been charged with the trial slated for Jan 2020.As Petrofac were supposedly Unaoils biggest client at one point, I suggest the SFO will want to see what emerges in the Jan 2020 trial before considering the closing of the Petrofac case.Would love to be wrong on this though as I am long on PFC.

[oohrogerpalmer] 30/8/2019 12:01

Yeah, shorters holding on ex divi date will have to pay.

[11_percent] 30/8/2019 11:40

stevieweebie2
30 Aug '19 - 11:33 - 13989 of 13990
0   0  0

Dunno but im in profit for a change ; )

================

Indeed....account shows blue...for once.

[sprocket man] 30/8/2019 11:39

The Board has declared an interim dividend of 12.7 US cents per share (2018: 12.7 US cents). The interim dividend will be paid on 18 October 2019 to eligible shareholders on the register at 20 September 2019 (the 'record date'). Shareholders who have not elected to receive dividends in US dollars will receive a sterling equivalent. Shareholders can elect by close of business on the record date to change their dividend currency election.

[sprocket man] 30/8/2019 11:37

Do shorter have to pay the dividend if they hold shorts on ex dividend day?

[stevieweebie2] 30/8/2019 11:33

Dunno but im in profit for a change ; )

[11_percent] 30/8/2019 11:24

Ok....whats happening.....has news of the FSA investigation leaked.

[wolfhound1] 28/8/2019 15:40

BIG draw on oil reserves it seems

[notimpressed] 28/8/2019 07:51

from the results

"Looking forward, the Group has a busy tendering pipeline with around US$13 billion of bid opportunities due for award in the second half of the year."

[computercoders] 25/8/2019 11:04

Thanks Gary that's really helpful.

[garycook] 25/8/2019 02:44

Petrofac Dividend Yield History

24-Aug


Dividend Yield (%)
Petrofac Current Yield Details - 7.77%
Dividends Declared in Previous 12 months
Year End Type Announce Date Ex-Dividend Date Payment Date Dividend
12/2018 Interim 29-Aug-18 20-Sep-18 19-Oct-18 $0.127
12/2018 Final 28-Feb-19 25-Apr-19 24-May-19 $0.253
Total: $0.38
Dividend Yield =
Total Dividends
Current Share Price
=
$0.38
398.7p
= 7.77%

[computercoders] 24/8/2019 20:48

So that's about 2.5%?

[timmy11] 24/8/2019 17:22

div 10.5p if usd stays same place