Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[cinquepercento] 27/9/2018 16:36

Meanwhile,the Petrofac week chart trend and the month chart trend are still a straight line going steadily up.

It can drop to 643 and still be just within the upward week trend.

We need it to break through the 675/680 mark.

[wolfhound1] 27/9/2018 15:54

Pogue, underlying oil has gone up from $30 to $75+ a 150% increase, adverse FX rates in China, India,Japan S Korea and EU -v- $ might have added 5-15% on top of the cost when payed into local ccy. The strength of US economy has been the driver of FX rates but also of increased demand....double whammy effect.

Where Oil will go...will be driven by markets and speculation....as I said I think Trump might try to hold back but inevitably 2019 will see it spike IMHO.

If Emerging Markets is the catalyst for next market shock - who knows, my point was that we dont have the same toxic mix that were repackaged and sold globally - if emerging takes a hit then it is largely self contained in the EM space.
As to Iran, they have since the over trrow of the Shaw in the 70's the US main bogeyman.....no one in press will come out in support and say DT was stupid to impose sanctions....as long as they think Iran are gettng hammered and denied access to global markets.

I can see Oil spike much higher in 2019....demand is a super tanker and it takes along time before it comes to a stop and reverses........GLA

[bouleversee] 27/9/2018 11:24

Hope you are right because I was still losing most of my investment in UKOG yesterday!

[stephen2010] 27/9/2018 11:03

Check out UKOG Extended flow test about to start anyday now on the Kimerage zones which flowed at over 1300 bopd agregate in 2016 on the short term flow test. Also official declaration of commerciality to be announced anyday, on the recently sucessful flow test of the portland zone, on their Horse Hill descovery well.
About to re-rate so be quick. Fully funded into 2019. Huge huge upside! DYOY :)

[pogue] 27/9/2018 07:20

Wolfhound
the price of oil doesn't need to go that high as this time the $ is a lot storng against other currencies and therefore the actual cost of oil to buy in some countries is a lot higher relatively.
Cheap money for mortgages was the last reason for a crisis every crisis/downturn is different this time it will be emerging markets the article seems to predict.
Agree Trump will sit on oil prices in America until after November and use the strategic reserve if all else fails citing a crisis as OPEC refuse to listen to him or something equally stupid. I can't believe nobody is pointing out in the press the reason for rising oil prices is mainly his foreign policy on Iran not OPEC refusing to listen, or being able to, comply with his demands.

[wolfhound1] 26/9/2018 14:46

Not so sure we are close to 2008 levels as the academic here would suggest.
1. Back in 2008 the mighty GS was talking of Oil hitting $200, at $80 we have alot of way to go.....from memory oil might have actually peaked briefly at $150/$160 ( twice current levels)just before crash.
2. Securitisation markets - have been fundamentally frozen at close to zero activity for last decade, it waa the cheap money from banks lending se uritising and lending again that created cheap money and eventually fuelled the "flipper tip ya tip her" mortgage crazy that was ezported from US
3. Banks and derivatives - banks now have to hold close to double the capital on trafing than they did in 2008, so now they have been much more frugal in lending with much tighter risk controls and valuation multiples.... albeit they are relaxibg that somewhat as economy recovers but we are a long way from 08 levels. Yhe second strand was derivatives and thise now are handelled in a much more structured and transparent way with much reduced risk appetite...at times down right pedestrian.

That is not to say we wont get a market correctuon but i dont see it anywhere near 2008 levels when it arrive.

I would also say Trump will try keeping a lid on price at pumps til after mid-terms. If Dem get in and oil continues to rise then he will blame Democrats.....and say to his fan base you needs to re-elect me cos look at what a mess the Dec are making since taking over the house and who else is going to stand up to them..... always be thinking two steps ahead.....

[pogue] 26/9/2018 11:33

As a followup to my prdiction above for the future I found this article today which highlights many of the points that may play out. Pure bear porn but logical in many ways.
hxxps://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/financial-crisis-in-2020-worse-than-2008-by-nouriel-roubini-and-brunello-rosa-2018-09

[pogue] 25/9/2018 20:59

Ken
I follow the oil price closely as my job literally depends on the price of oil.
The worry of OPEC+ is high oil prices kills demand they wanted oil in the $70 to $80 range to keep a nice profit but also keep demand rising because as price goes higher people start looking at substituting or even stop using oil products. A bigger issue though is that the $ is strong right now and that is badly effecting consumption for some countries whose currency is weak so even $80 is very expensive. There are a lot of variables out there just now.
My personal view is that the oil price should hold up to the end of the year then next year the downward pressures of world trade dropping due to Trump's policies and even Brexit may bring it down plus we are nearing the end of the current economic cycle so a downturn is due at some point which is again bad for consumption. A lot can happen before then though and many possible scenarios both positive and negative. Place your bets|

[ken tennis] 25/9/2018 15:25

POGUE thank you for your input you obviously study the situation more in depth than I do however I did know about the decision by Saudi and the Russians basically sticking 1 finger up to Trump, if it goes to $85 or even further it wont hurt Saudi or Russia but trump will be waving the sword like the maniac he is.
keep the good info coming POUGUE you can never get enough good info, and this board is pretty good compared to most.

ATB Ken

[wolfhound1] 25/9/2018 13:43

Interesting position by Blackrock....

The Inc. vehicle has reduced its long from over 5% in june to below 5%, whilst conversly Blackrock Investment Management (UK) ltd has reduced its short from 1.8% in July to 1.09% now......

Wonder how they square to investors being long in US and short in UK......hmmmmmmm

[pogue] 25/9/2018 12:49

Ken
the application of sanctions on Iran has been priced into the oil price for a while what has changed is the realisation that with Saudi saying they are not going to stop the price going over $80 is their ability to control the price via turning the taps on is gone ie their bluff of how much spare capacity they have is about to be called and they are avoiding showing their hand by saying 'We dont care'. A similar problem was the reason for the Aramco IPO being pulled was because they had to allow an independent audit of their actual oil reserves which is a state secret.
The oil price will settle long before the November sanctions once this information is priced in. IMHO

[its the oxman] 25/9/2018 11:36

Been a long time coming, but could finally be getting ready to test 700p

[cinquepercento] 25/9/2018 08:03

Ken Tennis :re getting interesting:
An oil price of about $85 will hopefully give this share a boost as it is running out of steam at the moment.
I will relax if and when Petrofac manages to get above 680.
:-)

[ken tennis] 25/9/2018 06:55

Brent crude $81.43 brl @ 6.00 am this is getting interesting and we are no where near sanctions of full impact on Iran till November.

[warranty] 24/9/2018 17:01

A nice contract win would just keep the share price moving nicely North now along with hopefully a rising oil price.

[wolfhound1] 24/9/2018 13:55

Headlines on Bloomberg are trader talk of $100 Oil, and as sure as night follows day, that will shift to $125, then $150....

Plenty of upside to come IMHO

[1gw] 24/9/2018 08:14

Looking strong again, perhaps off the back of the oil price.

[fangorn2] 21/9/2018 18:00

"Have large holding in PFC, and hoping this might be a useful position if there's a messy Brexit, hard or otherwise. Thoughts ?"

Messy Brexit they'll apparently be no food, water et al so I'd stock those myself

:)

[wolfhound1] 21/9/2018 15:09

I am anticipating share price will have risen strongly and to have taken profits well before Brexit actually becomes a reality :)

Starting with a close above 650p today and then onwards and upwards

[charlotteeb] 21/9/2018 14:42

Have large holding in PFC, and hoping this might be a useful position if there's a messy Brexit, hard or otherwise. Thoughts ?

So, ignorig SEC, POO, etc....just the fallout from failure of UK & EU to agree, could create safe haven uplift in price, as overseas earnings, Oil shipping etc could all rise dramatically.

Thanks.

[bouleversee] 20/9/2018 17:13

I blame Corbynite policies (renationalisation threatened), the weather and Ofgen or whatever the regulator is called. I'm hoping for a cold winter as my losses on SSE far outweigh any possible increase in my utility bills, although they are bad enough.

[warranty] 20/9/2018 16:08

Snap Mrs B my SSE, CNA and NG. Are all well under water as are many of my other UK stocks. I blame the Tories as much as anything, not just for their mishandling of Brexit but also their failure to follow capitalist policy in supporting business and pandering to Corbynite policies, diabolical how they’ve stuffed the Utilities in favour of fly by night call centre operations in the name of competition. Still, as soon as I get to vote on Tory leader May is toast. Still on the bright side cracking day for PFC.

[theclaw] 20/9/2018 15:48

Cheers Ken will be watching here for an entry point.