Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[bouleversee] 11/9/2018 17:57

Hmm. Vedanta has done nothing for me. I have held for a few years and they are now being opportunistically taken over by Mr Agarwal for £1000 less than I paid for them.

Perhaps I should buy more Petrofac with the proceeds. OTOH I have never had any luck with oil or mining shares.

[conundrum] 11/9/2018 10:38

See below links to the articles posted by Gary.

[garycook] 11/9/2018 05:34

Recovery

I’ve long seen Petrofac (LSE: PFC) as a tempting recovery prospect, thinking that a sustained oil price recovery could see the firm’s fortunes turn back up. The services the company provides to the oil industry have been under severe pressure as the sector had slashed non-essential spending, with outsourcing taking a lot of that hit.

The big question for many was when things would start to turn upwards, but I’ve never been one for trying to time the market. A stable oil price, I think, was the needed trigger, and it’s starting to look like that’s what we’re getting.

From a 2018 low in early February, the Petrofac share price has gained 45%. And even after that, the shares are trading on a lowly P/E multiple of less than nine based on current forecasts. On top of that, dividends for this year and next are expected to yield around 5%, even after the payout was cut by almost half in 2017.
Organic growth

First-half results in August showed the firm pursuing “organic growth as the market recovers.” That was on the same day we heard of a new $600m contract in Algeria, taking new orders for the year to August up to $3.3bn.

Petrofac still has the weight of an SFO investigation bearing on its shoulders, but I really see the pessimism as being already factored-in to the share price. It’s probably being held back by small EPS falls forecast for this year and next too, but that’s after a very big earnings recovery.

Petrofac looks like a solid recovery buy to me right now, and it might get some of my next pension investment cash.

[garycook] 08/9/2018 13:10

Petrofac is under investigation, in this case the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. This remains a risk, but unless there’s more bad news, I think it’s already reflected in the share price.

What attracts me is the firm’s profit potential when the oil market returns to growth. Service providers like Petrofac have faced a lot of price pressure from their oil producer customers since 2015. And spending on growth projects has been very limited over the last few years.

At some point, history suggests that this will change and the oil sector will start spending more on growth projects. When this happens, I’d expect Petrofac to enjoy strong profit expansion for several years.
A good starting point?

Adjusted net profit rose by 20% to $190m during the first half of the year, despite a drop in revenue.

New orders worth $3.3bn were signed during the period, leaving the group with an order backlog worth $9.7bn. Although this backlog is down slightly from $10.2bn at the end of 2017, I think it’s close enough to suggest a stable outlook.

The shares currently trade on 8.4 times forecast earnings with a dividend yield of 4.8%. In my view this should be a good entry point for investors who want to profit when the oil market returns more actively to growth. I continue to rate this business as a buy.

[bouleversee] 07/9/2018 16:53

Thanks; will try that.

[dr_smith] 07/9/2018 16:30

Replacing xx for tt worked for me.

[bouleversee] 07/9/2018 15:45

Link doesn't seem to work.

[maxjack] 07/9/2018 14:25

On Money Weeks list "3 to Sell" this week!


hxxps://moneyweek.com/494285/share-tips-of-the-week-102/?utm_campaign=money-morning-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

[pogue] 07/9/2018 11:00

Ken tennis
Well the PoO fell approximately 1.2% last night and has levelled out today and PFC has fallen approximately 1.1% today. Normally does not correlate so accurately as its the trend that is important but today it has.

[ken tennis] 06/9/2018 16:58

oil just lost a dollar a barrel in 25 mins just after 4.00 pm im surprised as the EIA draw was more than forecast by quite a large margin.
It didn't appear to immediately affect the PFC price but we will see in the morning.

[pogue] 06/9/2018 14:17

Wolfhound
I doubt he wants to create a recession either but he is doing all the things necessary to create it, sadly his brain cannot focus on one thing for more than a few seconds so cannot join the dots of the consequences of his decisions to see the picture. As for the PoO he has one lever he can pull to keep the oil price down and that is the strategic reserve its a short term effect obviously but it would work long enough for November elections the only other way is to force the Saudis and Russians to follow his orders but I really dont think they will take much notice of him but they have stated that they want $70 to $80 and to be honest that is not going to annoy any Americans as they are paying that just now without major complaints.

[wolfhound1] 06/9/2018 13:27

I doubt Trump wants to create a global recession, however as a property mogul I could imagine that Trumps "empire" is heavily in debt at possibly fixed rates and what he would like to do is see interest rates rise so his asset prices become inflated relative to a static debt level.....but for now he has to be content to try his best to keep oil low ( release from reserves so he can control short term supply) til post Nov so he still has control of congress post Nov to execute Phase II.........

[pogue] 06/9/2018 08:29

wolfhound
I said long ago that Trump wanted to keep the price of oil below $80 for the mid terms but he really does not have the power to command the oil price only to talk to the Saudis who also happen to want the price between $70 and $80, as they are not stupid enough to kill rising oil demand, problem is the high $ is eating into demand and Trump's policies are looking like causing a world wide recession which is also bad for demand. There are factors on the bull side off course. Regards the shorts reducing causing PFC to rise well PoO at beginning July was $72 its now $77 and is now falling just like PFC share price whilst the shorters are reducing now as well. Which is the more dominant trend I still think PoO as shorters reducing does not bring a share price down.

[cinquepercento] 06/9/2018 08:04

Looking at the 3mth and 6mth chart selection,620 or so is just within the upward trend minimum support level and I expect this to resume the upward movement to above 680 or so, very soon.

[wolfhound1] 05/9/2018 23:39

IMHO those currently being put under pressure to renegotiate rrade deals i.e. China, Mexico, Canada, EU Russia, etc....are all only tio aware that a high price at pumps increases probability of a Democratic majority and a lame Potus and an end to current pressure... I suspect between now and Nov they will target a higher oil price at pumps.

[wolfhound1] 05/9/2018 23:26

Pogue - when short were at their peak of 9.25%+ share price was approx 525p that was start of july. Since then shorts have reduced to approx 7.49% and share price has risen to almost 680p and has come off a bit since due to Trump effect incl impact on PoO.....IMHO he is trying to keep a lid on oil til Nov mid-terms are out of the way lest the Republicans loose the majority and he becomes a lame duck . So as shorts have reduced by approx 20% , share price has risen by up to 25%- 30% in same period

[pogue] 05/9/2018 11:34

callmebwana
regards the POO going to $80 I did say it was going to be range bound $70-$80, not convinced Barclays prediction of above $80 is going to happen, problem is PFC ran up with the oil price now oil has stopped its upward trajectory people are taking profits or re evaluating if the shares got ahead of themselves. I still expect the share price to not move that much and guess it will drift around £6 something maybe high £5 on a bad day until PoO sorts out what its going to do.
Why is the share price falling if shorts are exiting? :0)

[garycook] 04/9/2018 11:29

Petrofac Ltd (PFC.L)

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SELL
649.8
BUY
650.2
-2.2pts (-0.34%)

High: 660.4

Low: 642.4
92% of client accounts are long on this market

[callmebwana] 04/9/2018 11:04

PFC Short position @ 7.49%. So Shorts are moving out slowly.

WTI PoO @ $ 71.04. USA PoO on the up. Two Rigs closed in the Gulf of Mexico because of Hurricane season. Barclays forecast PoO to be around $80 or above short term.
The Chinese and Indians are using Iranian Tankers to ship oil to their countries from Iran.
Share price of PFC falling !!! Go figure it out.
A woman has taken over as the head of SFO from last week. She worked in the USA and has dual nationality. I forgot her name. :o)
In the mean time Shorts are having fun.
GLA.

[wolfhound1] 03/9/2018 13:36

IMHO Graph is looking good for a BREAKOUT past 680 resistence this week. Looking forward to a sustained uptrend into new yearly high.

Gla

P.s. I should have also mentioned some of the well known shorters are heading for exits - now down to 7.64% overall with the likes of AQR and Capeview reducing positions.

[cybernest53] 30/8/2018 22:34

Errrm... No in short. Shares don't go up necessarily just because a few brokers rerate them up. The market price moves on the basis of many other factors.. demand (or the lack of it), volumes and good or bad solid news is what moves SP's... in my experience anyway! Solid long term holder here... waiting for more good news (interims were goood) and good upward climb in the near term... and of courrse there's the interim divi to look forward to next month. GLA!

[warranty] 30/8/2018 15:40

Excuse me for being stupid but aren’t shares supposed to go up when they’ve been rerated higher??

[fangorn2] 30/8/2018 13:53

In case anyone interested...

Petrofac Ltd (POFCF) CEO Ayman Asfari on Q2 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

[garycook] 30/8/2018 12:08

30 Aug Petrofac Ltd Numis Buy 653.20 700.00 821.00 30 Aug Petrofac Ltd Barclays Capital Overweight 653.20 850.00 - Reiterates

[callmebwana] 30/8/2018 10:53

Sorry Pogue.
I should have said it in another way.
Short position was 8.4% then to 7.88% today it is showing 7.83% . So the Short are reducing slowly.