Petro Matad Share Discussion Threads

[neo26] 09/5/2022 09:57

Nothin happening this year. Imho

[the_gold_mine] 08/5/2022 15:00

"THE DISTORTIONS OF CHEAP ENERGY" Natural Resource Market Commentary by Goehring & Rozencwajg predicts OPEC+ spare capacity will have run out by the end of the year.

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"The Oil Crisis Unfolding in Slow Motion

...Assuming Iranian volumes come back, Iraq boosts production and no other countries suffer unexpected outages (all very generous assumptions), we still estimate that OPEC+ spare capacity only amounts to 2.8 m b/d. Based upon our models, all of this capacity will be needed by the end of this year... The truth is no one knows what will happen when we run out of spare pumping capacity potentially this year. During the two oil crises of the 1970s, OPEC maintained significant spare capacity. Even when prices ran to $145 in 2008, OPEC’s spare pumping capability was substantial. Never in the history of world oil markets have we been in this situation--- we are about to enter unchartered territory...

We have argued for years that negative rhetoric and anemic spending would bring about an energy crisis, and we think that is now upon us.

-----

Thanks to Mount Teide who pasted the link in the JSE board
hxxps://info.gorozen.com/2021-q4-market-commentary-the-distortions-of-cheap-energy

[the_gold_mine] 07/5/2022 09:30

There seems to be some people writing off 2022 already for PetroMatad. They have to keep in mind that the drilling season still has another 5+ months to run (if you look at Gazelle-1 results RNS it was still having work done until October 17th). Whilst I don’t think any additional drilling at Heron is likely this year for Heron-2 or Heron-3 (in fact I’d say seems highly unlikely), I think getting the Heron-1 workover done is achievable, provided we get some luck regarding the Chinese covid situation.

[the_gold_mine] 06/5/2022 18:29

Progressive Equity Research - new brokers note

hxxps://progressive-research.com/research/operational-update-2/

Mainly a repeat of the Operational Update RNS, however makes a couple of statements about scheduling that were not made in the RNS:

" This will leave the well ready to produce once export restrictions are lifted. " This is stated twice, and is a fairly big statement to make!!... and I 100% hope this is correct.

And it hints about another possible issue:

"This will leave Petro Matad in a position where it can, hopefully, secure the necessary land certificates in Blocks XX and V." This was touched on in the RNS and MATD have already said they will escalate to central government if problems arise...

However, it fails to mention the possible DQE partnership, which I feel is a big oversight, as a binding agreement to accelerate Heron development would (one would expect) certainly add a few % points onto the share price ..

[the_gold_mine] 05/5/2022 12:48

Gosoftly. There is also the potential upside from a DQE partnership arrangement being announced...

I agree the risk is that Heron-1 won't be brought online this year and the potential for downward drift on the share price (as was seen last year).

However I cannot see why Heron-1 will not come online next year at the latest, which would support the current market cap at a minimum (being conservative) , and hopefully a lot more if the oil price stays high. All indications point to the Mongolian central government wanting and being supportive of the oil industry.

There is also potential for share price support as newsflow develops (surface production facilities on-site, finalisation of Ts&Cs with PetroChina for use of adjacent block processing facilities etc), plus the wider backdrop of an increasing oil price, and as you note the block 5 Velociraptor drill.

For me I'm happy with the risk/reward of the current buy-in price which isn't far off the recent placing price which Petrovis bought into,

AIMHO/DYOR

[gosoftly7] 05/5/2022 11:52

I think there are two parts to this: Production - Heron and Exploration - Raptor.

With all the storage facilities full when shipments can restart, I have no doubt that PetroChina will be wanting to try and catch-up lost production. If Heron is brought on line it may not be so simple to keep it producing. If PetroChina can ship oil out a lot faster than they produce then this will only be a slight hold up. Even with the Govt. permit MATD need to get the locals on side - thanks for the research TGM. This might be a bit harder and take a bit longer. How long will the Covid restrictions from China remain in place? Who knows. So production this year may be a big ask.

However I think that an exploration well or possibly two could well be on the cards.

Making this a tough call.

If neither were to take place, then the price will drop - not particularly insightful- should they drill the exploration well there could be a good run up and obviously if they find oil in the quantities they hope for then it could be the moonshot.

What to do.

[red army] 05/5/2022 09:55

In that case an opportunity to get in lower

[jungmana] 05/5/2022 09:27

Is high time you lot accept that not much will happen here this year. The 6 months window will shut by November as the weather changes

[the_gold_mine] 05/5/2022 08:34

I topped up twice this morning, £5k and then another £20k later on.

It is clear that PM has the support of the central government, and Heron-1 looks to be moving in the right direction (albeit not as fast as shareholders would like).

The temporary headwinds with covid are disappointing but outside of PMs control...

I like this as a straight up asset play (Heron field), there is obviously risks with Operational delays and such but the underlying business case for the field to be developed is compelling.

[red army] 05/5/2022 08:11

Progress is slow BUT potential still there.

[neo26] 04/5/2022 11:49

Takin mickey now oil been over 100 dollars and matd still not producing.

[the_gold_mine] 26/4/2022 19:45

Extract from interview with G.Yondon, Mongolian Minister of Mining and Heavy Industry, getting the refinery on line is a big priority for the Mongolian government to ensure there energy independence. And by extension that means ensuring sufficient crude oil will be available for the refinery commissioning and start-up.

-Reserve issues are discussed at the oil refinery. Even when operations begin, there are disputes over the availability of crude oil reserves. Are you conducting exploration and research to increase resources?

-Our oil reserves have increased slightly over the past year. Petro Matad has increased its reserves and has been certified by the Minerals Professional Council.

Areas 19 in Toson and 21 in Tams were selected. Previously, Petro China Daqing Tamsag conducted a large-scale exploration work in a large exploration area called Davst-31. At the end of the term, the company returned the field to the government and handed it over to the Mongolian refinery. The refinery has invited companies to explore the area. Proposals have been submitted to more than 30 companies. In order to increase reserves, these five or six blocks will be negotiated separately with companies on the site and exploration will begin.

Petro China Daqing Tamsag has expressed interest in some of our oil fields and said it sees opportunities. There is a possibility that additional reserves will be approved in some areas of Dornogovi aimag.

[the_gold_mine] 26/4/2022 19:43

Tender awarded for refinery pipeline last week:

Tender awarded last week for the refinery pipeline connecting Dornod Aimag oilfield (where Petro China Daqing Tamsag LLC operate) to the under construction refinery:

hxxps://montsame.mn/en/read/295058

"Ulaanbaatar/MONTSAME/. The Government made a decision on January 6, 2020 to transport the raw material of the oil refinery through a pipeline. Accordingly, the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry announced an international tender “to select a contractor to finance and construct an oil pipeline project in Mongolia,” and China’s the state-owned ‘Norinco International Cooperation’ Co.Ltd has won the tender.

On April 18, a cooperation agreement of the project to construct a crude oil pipeline in Mongolia was signed by State Secretary of the Ministry G.Nandinjargal, CEO of Mongol Refinery state-owned LLC D.Altantsetseg, CEO of Erdenes Tavantolgoi JSC B.Gankhuyag, and General manager of Norinco International Cooperation.

Crude oil from the Dornod aimag’s oil field will be transported to the Oil Refinery, which is currently under construction in Altanshiree soum, Dornogobi aimag through a 530 km long pipeline.

Norinco International Cooperation will complete the construction of a pipeline within three years or ahead of the commissioning of Oil Refinery."

hxxps://montsame.mn/en/read/295058

And what good is a refinery pipeline without enough crude oil to go down it? No good at all. But I am sure PetroMatad will be happy to make up for any shortfalls in adjacent blocks...

[its the oxman] 21/4/2022 21:44

Test of 5 coming again. Could well go this time.

[pr0t0n] 19/4/2022 23:08

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week,
Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan

[the_gold_mine] 13/4/2022 07:51

Gosoftly7: If this was the problem then how come PetroChina have dozens of producing wells directly adjacent to Heron-1? Doesn't make sense to me.

[gosoftly7] 12/4/2022 09:34

My understanding is that the Govt. is going to pass legislation on land access/ use permits. After this the local Govt. will make their own rules - probably adjusted slightly - for local conditions before issuing the permits. MATD need this permit before they can start production drilling.

I am not sure that they need this type of permit for exploration.

The above of course are not in MATD's gift.

[pro_s2009] 09/4/2022 01:19

Spring is in the air, Mike needs to get Heron sorted and on production, MATD needs that cash inflow.

[zooman] 08/4/2022 21:39

P, looking good for next week. Zoo

[pr0t0n] 08/4/2022 21:00

20 mil. plus traded today. The largest volume since Jan 19/20 this year.
Good news soon I guess!

[garymegson] 08/4/2022 11:22

Shake over!!