Petrel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kdickson] 16/4/2024 11:04

PS 100,000 bopd would be worth £5+ when fully developed.

[kdickson] 16/4/2024 11:02

Hi mcguines,
The answer to that, I believe, is threefold.
1). Merjan is viewed as a minor field by larger IOC's so 'not worthwhile' developing. They're more interested in fields capable of several 100,000's bopd. Merjan supposedly could 'only' reach 100,000bopd.

2). Petrel (and Itochu) have studied the Merjan/Kifl area for years (at the IOM's invitations) so they've kind of cornered the market in terms of technical/geological detail so to speak for this licence. I'm sure other potential bidders know this so hopefully will not think they have a chance of competing.

3). The Iraqi's want "partners, not bosses" (DH's words) and that's the relationship that Petrel have been developing for 20+ years. Including employing local people for security, etc. Again, other companies will be aware of this strong bond so probably dont think its worth 'competing against the favourite'.

Anyway, that's my personal thoughts :).

[kdickson] 15/4/2024 21:32

You are almost amusing there Diddy but your visitation over to our 'enlightened side' makes me believe I must be on the right track. ;)

[taxibabe] 15/4/2024 14:49

Notice how your dates keep shifting first it was 18th of april now its 28th of april with the rider "nothing may be announced publically at that point". Your forgetting the company's obligation to notify the market of any material market information regardless of what the Iraqi oil ministry do!

[flyhi] 15/4/2024 14:12

! Petrel were the only company that had applied for Merjan as DH stated at the AGM !

[kdickson] 15/4/2024 13:33

Hi murphy2000. Im surprised too!
I think everyone is so resigned to nothing ever happening for Petrel (and no news) that its too weird a concept for the brain to accept anything otherwise. Even though many factors point to us being in prime position to receive potential company making news soon.

There are 20 companies applying for the 30 licence areas (16 areas in LR5+ and 14 areas in LR6) so that's perhaps 11 companies going for the 16 LR5+ areas. And we know that Petrel were the only company that had applied for Merjan as DH stated at the AGM.

We'll find out soon anyway. The bid envelopes will be opened immediately following the deadline for their submission, which is April 28-29th for LR5+ (weekend after next).

Of course, the winners may not be announced publicly at that point.

[felix0007] 15/4/2024 07:02

Thank you KD and as always excellent research and explanations....

[flyhi] 14/4/2024 18:11

KD - great post -TY

...not long now...

[blakieboy7] 14/4/2024 18:00

We just need to hope the conflict doesn't put a spanner in the works

[slim pickings] 14/4/2024 17:43

Excellent post KD - thanks for pulling it together and sharing.

[kdickson] 14/4/2024 17:03

WHY KIFL FIELDS PACKAGED WITH MERJAN SUGGESTS LICENCE IS EARMARKED FOR PETREL

Interesting that Merjan has been packaged with Kifl and West Kifl fields into the 'Middle Furat' license of the 5th plus round. I had always thought that the Technical Co-operation Agreement they did with Itochu  in 2005-2007 was just for Merjan alone.

However, looking back through all Annual Report's and Interims, it seems they also studied Kifl and West Kifl.

2005 AR:
First mention of Kifl.
"Of particular interest is the potential seen in the regional work for a structural trend extending to the southeast [of Merjan] and incorporating the Kifl area".

The image below shows the relative positions of Merjan, Kifl and West Kifl which clearly shows how the Kifl fields are aligned SE of Merjan.
Detailed study of well logs and flow data, together with maturation and AFTA analysis...will form part of the final report to the IOM's Oil Exploration Company on the potential and extent of the Merjan Field.

2008 AR:
We confirmed that the oil-bearing structure [of Merjan] extended well beyond the previously mapped structure. Definitive delineation of the field's extent requires a proposed work programme of targeted wells and 3D seismic, when suitable contract arrangements are in place.

[Our] study was reviewed by a panel of senior officials of the Ministry's Petroleum Contracts and Licensing Directorate and they approved the work [PCLD are the ones managing the LR5+ and LR6 rounds!].

KD note: I emailed DH June 2020 asking if perhaps Merjan oil structure linked westwards to Block 6 (it doesn't) but he also said "...it is clear from the 1982 Mobil well logs that the Merjan oil reservoir is much greater than the numbers calculated". So it's likely he's referring to the reservoir extending south eastwards to the Kifl fields.

Sept 2019 Interims:
The improving security situation in western Iraq has again made possible field-work on prime western desert exploration blocks, including Block 6. Similarly, the Merjan oil discovery...which has recently been packaged with Kifl & West Kifl oilfields, has arisen as a possible development project. The Merjan oilfield and surroundings [Kifl fields?!]...has recently been covered by a 1,000 km sq 3D seismic survey conducted by the Iraqi Oil Exploration Company. This enhanced data should further minimise the risks & costs of development.

[KD note: There's a coincidence! 1,000kms of 3D seismic are done on 'Merjan and surroundings' then the IOM decide to add in Kifl/West Kifl to Merjan and include that as the 'Middle Furat' package in the LR5+ round. Right up Petrel's street! And DH sounds confident too].

2019 AR:
In discussions shortly before the Covid-19 pandemic, the authorities suggested that Petrel initially target “exploration of blocks in the western desert of Iraq, and present past studies done on the Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl discoveries...”;. [KD: So, they did study the two Kifl fields previously].

Subject to the appointment of responsible officials by the new Iraqi Government, and the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, Petrel expects to enter into re-qualification discussions with the appropriate decision-makers at the Ministry of Oil. Discussions may cover Petrel’s past studies on the Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl area, and the Mesozoic & Paleozoic potential of the Western Desert.

2020 AR:
[KD: Almost identical wording to above 2019 AR except it now only says "Subject to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions" and no mention of 'appointment of responsible officials', so they've now been appointed].

2022 AR (June 2023):
[Same wording as previous 2 'Covid delay' years re: Iraqi authorities suggesting Petrel target “exploration of blocks in the western desert of Iraq, and present past studies done on the Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl discoveries"]...

...but [new paragraph]...Our updated development proposal requires an economic Iraqi Government contractual model in order to proceed with necessary funding and / or attract equity partners
[KD: So they're already thinking about funding for Merjan at this point].
[KD: I asked DH 22nd June 2023 if Itochu was still around as a potential sugar daddy
DH: "Yes"

2023 Interim Statement (18th Sept):
• Petrel has fine-tuned its Iraqi proposals, following feedback

[KD: DH confirmed 18th Sep this does relate to Merjan...so, they've had 'guidance' back from the IOM on their submission to 'get it right'].

We have contractors and suppliers identified but seek improved fiscal terms to attract partners.

• An updated Merjan oil field development proposal has been submitted to the Ministry with a view to finalising a licence agreement.
[KD: Say no more!]

The board expects to add another one or more Non-Executive Director with the next major deal.
[KD: They sound confident!]
[KD: Also ties in with rumours of a new 29.9% investor/entity].

Taking all of the above into account, it feels to me that the recent new 3D seismic done by the Iraqi Oil Exploration Company, on top of Petrels original 2005-2007 study and additional analysis in 2008, has led the IOM, post Covid to now re-package Merjan, Kifl and West Kifl into the one 'Middle Furat' licence because they are all now believed to be part of the same contiguous Merjan oil structure.

Its almost as if this 'Middle Furat' licence has been tailor made for Petrel given their exclusive deep knowledge of these specific fields.

Also, it's important to note that out of the 16 contract areas on offer in LR5+, only this (and one other) is a DPC (Development Production Contract). All 14 others are EDPC contacts (E =  Exploration).



In other words, this is a known group of fields waiting to be developed into producing ones (at least 100,000 bopd) and no exploration required.

[goggin] 12/4/2024 15:05

But do they even have title? If they have and it's not bs and they get a sniff from a big player, this will go far beyond most people's wildest dreams, if not, then back to sub 1p. Wonder why DH and crew are so very very quiet. They have just awarded themselves a shed load of options in Clontarf at .035p, what their gameplan?

[kdickson] 12/4/2024 13:20

Only a little over 2 weeks now before the deadline for submissions on Licencing Round 5+.

Merjan and Dhufriya both in the 16 blocks on offer so double the chance for Petrel as they did studies on both in the past (and both studies were given the seal of approval by the IOM Petroleum Contracts and Licensing Directorate (PCLD) who just happen to be the ones officiating over who gets what in these current licensing rounds).

[riskyinvestor] 12/4/2024 12:28

Nothing is gonna happen here

The Middle East is a war zone presently

Tower Resources (TRP) is the stock to be in

[ianio5691] 12/4/2024 12:19

Will go parabolic when/IF something ever happens ??

[kdickson] 12/4/2024 11:10

Thats all it takes ;)

[valentine73] 12/4/2024 11:08

Cant believe 90k of shares can lift the price.