Petards Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 13/9/2018 11:03

Nice 50,000 share buy at 26p has caused today's tick up - good to see the bid price up to 25p now.

[rivaldo] 12/9/2018 12:45

Jhan66, last year's interims were on 12th September, so they should be any day now!

Probably tomorrow or on Monday morning at a guess.

[bones] 12/9/2018 12:34

The two areas that would encourage me to reinvest are a sign of growing free cash flow being generated and, in hand with this, less reliance on arbitrary capitalising of software "development" costs each year that often boost profits from near break even.I remain unconvinced about the profitability profile and question how hard the big rail companies drive bargains before granting contracts to little Petards.

[jhan66] 12/9/2018 12:20

Does anyone know interims release date?
Ought to be imminent judging by previous years. Contract announcements & broker updates are helpful but I’d like to see some clean figures before buying. Clarity on options, acquisitions & forecasts.
Might be why there’s little uplift .

[rivaldo] 12/9/2018 12:08

WH Ireland also reiterate their 34p fair value for PEG, after today's contract win.

They forecast 2p EPS rising to 2.4p EPS.

[rivaldo] 12/9/2018 09:24

Hybridan today reiterate their forecasts of 2.15p EPS rising to 2.56p EPS.

They say PEG "count the majority of the world’s largest rolling stock suppliers as its customers. This time round, the Company has landed another meaningful order from Siemens on their contract for the Turkish State Railway."

And "Petards continues to benefit from a robust long-term order book and we believe that in the context of growing infrastructure investment, Petards’ management team has the commercial and strategic know how to further accelerate revenue and earnings
growth."

[rivaldo] 12/9/2018 07:09

Another large contract win, this time for £1.1m, securing further revenues for 2019 and 2020.

Great to see the continuing business for Siemens, but also that it's overseas business for the Turkish State Railway....imagine the impact when PEG continue to win further business around the world:

[rivaldo] 07/9/2018 07:17

A reminder that Hybridan's latest forecasts give rise to a forward P/E of just 9.3:

this year - 2.15p EPS, with £1.2m net cash
next year - 2.56p EPS, with £2.4m net cash

Interesting detail here about the recent acquisition - lots of recurring income for example:



"Consultancy expands on role in Petards deal
6 Sep 2018

A Southampton-based consultancy has detailed its involvement in an acquisition made by Petards Group, an AIM-quoted developer of advanced security and surveillance systems.

Jamie Lane, based in transaction services at Smith & Williamson, which provides accountancy, investment and tax advisory services, was appointed by Petards followed a tender for due diligence.

RTS Solutions (UK) and its parent company RTS Solutions (Holdings) (together RTS), a specialist transportation software engineering company, joined Petards following Smith & Williamson's review of the financial aspects of the target business.

Lane, who works at Smith & Williamson's South Coast office, said: "Following a competitive tender, our remit was to look at RTS' financial performance and its assets and any liabilities, providing proactive support to Petards through to completion.

"RTS figures showed it was profitable and debt-free, with a history of excellent cash generation. More than half of revenues related to recurring software licences, maintenance and support contracts, which provided further trading confidence.

"Speaking generally, it is essential in any due diligence work that nothing falls through the cracks, so the potential acquirer is confident of the target’s future prospects and past performance."

Leeds-based RTS provides web-based safety-critical applications in real time to customers involved in operational, engineering and maintenance programmes. Its principal customers are currently Network Rail, which owns and operates the railway infrastructure in England, Wales and Scotland, and Network Rail’s major contractors.

Petards' eyeTrain provides digital on-train surveillance and helps maximise safety and performance for train-operating companies and train builders."

[bookbroker] 21/8/2018 12:23

Be interesting to see first half after the positive AGM statement, I chastise the stock because it is frustrating to see it not trade on a higher rating. The consistency of earnings important but because of the size of the company it’s difficult to envisage any meaningful acquisitions, rather it more likely to be swallowed itself. Transport technology a good market to be in, but yet to be reflected here!

[rivaldo] 21/8/2018 11:50

Good to see four small buys having an upwards effect now.

A little volume goes a long way with this stock!

[bones] 21/8/2018 10:25

Most of AIM small stocks are being sold off on extremely low volume. August is never a good guide to potential!

[rivaldo] 20/8/2018 12:00

Chartwell's holding has remained exactly the same (as per March's Annual Report) - they merely went below a percentage level as the number of shares in issue has increased slightly.

I believe that:

(1) PEG may well beat 2.15p EPS forecasts this year given the very strong start to the year and the new contract wins. Even if they "only" meet forecasts then .....
(2) PEG are extremely good value given 2.56p EPS forecast next year, with decent visibility for that number already
(3) the excellent potential for retrofit now makes PEG even more attractive
(4) and the sound Balance Sheet may well enable further acquisitions as already hinted at

I posted only last month explaining that Thomas Charlton was on the Board at Mercury Asset Management and was a managing director at Merrill Lynch, as well as being a serial investor in his own right. A very nice addition to the shareholder base.

[dave4545] 20/8/2018 10:02

rivaldo

2.15p and 2.56p eps forcast is ok, just means they are ok value around 25p

I have MRS and they have met their 2p forcast for last 12 months and they are just 8.8p, value is elsewhere providing their update is good too.

[bookbroker] 20/8/2018 09:58

Like to know who is behind Chartwell Investment Ltd, see they are re-balancing their holding, what I wish to see is a broader spread of small investment funds here besides the connections of the Abdullahs. The involvement of Thomas Charlton a start, whoever he is!!

[rivaldo] 20/8/2018 09:50

Hybridan have issued an update note following the latest large contract win from Bombardier.

They've retained for the moment their 40p target (almost 70% upside), and 2.15p and 2.56p EPS forecasts, with £1.23m net cash rising to £2.37m.

Interestingly, they highlight that this contract "highlights opportunities beyond the
awards of infrastructure expansion projects and rail franchise awards."

This is because this contract is for rail retrofit rather than the usual new train builds, "bringing carriages up to date with best in class technology". They say:

"We believe that the drive for efficiency and increased levels of automation across the rail network presents Petards with an opportunity for further retrofit opportunities where no ASDO system is fitted."

[dave4545] 16/8/2018 14:21

bookbroker

It's a very quiet stock so the best chance to offload some size and get a little bit more money for your shares is when they announce a contract. Happens every time

[chunkster] 16/8/2018 14:13

I agree great little company growing at a steady pace, some nice additions to the company of late and to bring down the board doesn't make sense to me before 2013 this company was in a state I think they have done and will keep doing a good job in growing the company.

[rimau1] 16/8/2018 13:06

Patience! Value always comes out eventually, and I seriously doubt we are sacrificing revenue for margin erosion, gross margins are running at 38% and have been trending higher. Renew is also priced on 10 times earnings so the sector is still lowly rated despite strong balance sheets and growing order books. I think this is a great structural niche play on Rail gaining significant investment and service upgrades over the next few years and remember this was priced in the teens last year. Thanks as always for the insightful updates Rivaldo!

[rivaldo] 16/8/2018 12:31

It's a £13m microcap, is illiquid, under-researched by analysts and unknown to most PIs. Total volumes today are just £8k! It would be ridiculous to draw conclusions from such tiny activity.

Patience needs to be shown, and backing of your own judgement.

The likes of Miton own nearly 5%. Thomas Charlton has just declared he owns over 3%. Chelverton Growth hold 3.5%. Downing Active own 6.3%.

[bookbroker] 16/8/2018 11:46

Beginning to question the rational for holding these, contract wins has no bearing on the share price clearly, is that because the market believes they are achieving these by slicing the potential margin or the inability of the Abdullahs to inspire confidence in this company!

[rivaldo] 16/8/2018 07:27

A large contract win just announced - another £2.7m for Bombardier, securing further revenues into 2019 and 2020.

And it's not just for CCTV, but for PEG's door opening and passenger counting systems too.

Hopefully this will lead to upgrades to the existing 2.15p and 2.56p EPS forecasts:

[bones] 08/8/2018 13:20

I was only a growing lad at the time but I recall a similar uproar about cost and loss of backyards when the M25 was being planned in the late 70s. Guess we should have stuck to single carriage A roads around London? Principle is very much the same I think with HS2. Our railways are jammed solid at the moment and no amount of "improvements" on various 5 mile stretches here and there will solve that.Is HS2 value for money at any cost? That I do not know. While billions are spent abroad, I do not accept that our government is skint.

[bookbroker] 08/8/2018 09:35

The HS2 is a bloody outrage, reading about the already growing costs there is no way the budget will remain within £55bln, that money could build a new Heathrow and increase the existing railway structure with increased rolling stock significantly,all to save 30 minutes travelling time between London and Birmingham, that is without delays at the start of the journey. Crackers!!