Petards Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 24/5/2017 15:49

I'll be buying a few more on this pullback, I'm not so much interested in this year, what the contracts do is underpin the future, that will boost the stock medium term!

[noujay] 24/5/2017 15:47

Acquisitions would seem to be the best route forward here, unless they get acquired of course which is at possibility and surely at these levels not such an unlikely one.

[rivaldo] 24/5/2017 15:43

Indeed they were, left unchanged presumably to be conservative prior to this year's H1 results and leaving room for upgrades.

They currently go for 2.59p EPS this year and 2.95p EPS next year (1.86p and 2.09p fully diluted).

They also see a £2.8m cash pile at the end of this year - though of course PEG have flagged up there may be further acquisitions.

[noujay] 24/5/2017 15:30

Presumably revised forecasts were on there Rivaldo?

[crazycoops] 24/5/2017 15:28

A good note but why haven't they upgraded their forecasts?

[noujay] 24/5/2017 14:58

That's pretty good reading, nothing much not to like here at the moment although the price is, IMO, lagging behind considering yesterday's news.

[rivaldo] 24/5/2017 14:50

Hybridan have issued a new note after the £3m contract win - worth noting some highlights:

"The AVENTRA is the successor to the popular commuter train the ELECTROSTAR, manufactured in Derby, a model for which Petards has had considerable previous success. This is the second order that Petards has announced to date to kit out AVENTRA trains following a £1.3m order last year. We are encouraged that this recent order, surpasses the total announced in 2016 with respect to Bombardier, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of rolling stock. The AVENTRA is enjoying considerable success in the UK having won mandates for the Elizabeth Line (Crossrail) and a 665 vehicle contract for the East Anglia rail franchise."

"Petards’ customer list reads like a who’s who of the train building world, extended recently by a £4.3m order with Swiss train manufacturer Stadler, a new customer in addition to the likes of Siemens, Bombardier and Hitachi."

"At less than half way through the year our revenue forecast is more than 80% covered by business already won, subject to timely delivery. With £8m already contracted for future periods, Petards is building a solid platform for growth beyond 2017."

"Petards has a solid order book and balance sheet, strong levels of recurring maintenance and spares revenues and repeat business, plus, a large pipeline of opportunities in rail. The Emergency Services division with an enhanced product range following the integration of QRO, is also well placed to begin delivering a meaningful contribution. The share price has performed well of late, but we continue to see scope for an acceleration of growth and therefore re-rating beyond the current 17.8x multiple of FY2017E diluted EPS."

[chunkster] 24/5/2017 09:42

Surely these guy's will get snapped up by someone if the company value stays so undervalued. It is a good solid year now with consistent large contracts, new global companies on board and cash in bank!!!!

[noujay] 24/5/2017 08:35

Slightly surprised this hasn't firmed up a bit more yet on such a good contract although the last one took a few days to sink into the market as I recall

[noujay] 23/5/2017 17:32

All good stuff this, they do seem on a roll, supports the recent re-rating very nicely.

[rivaldo] 23/5/2017 14:08

Another £3m contract win announced to Bombardier for this £13m m/cap company, bolstering expectations for the next few years. They just keep on delivering the goods....

[crazycoops] 18/5/2017 18:09

Not really, he can't announce until the transaction is complete. Seems like a reasonable "bonus" considering the progress the company is making under his stewardship.

[mobtheplod] 18/5/2017 17:34

Mr Abdullah just off loaded 50000 shares, very small amount compared to his total holding but a bit odd the news appeared so late in the day.

[melton john] 16/5/2017 19:16

I once worked for a company which awarded across the board share options in lieu of a salary review. When the shares were sold after vesting, the (small) proceeds were taxed as income not a capital gain. Not that it matters, just saying.

[rivaldo] 16/5/2017 16:12

RNS out...he's now sold just enough to cover the cost of exercise, so presumably he's keeping the rest, which means the points above remain valid.

[bones] 16/5/2017 15:54

Rivaldo, yes I agree on the likely tax reason for the sale. Hopefully he will retain the new ones for a good while.

[rivaldo] 16/5/2017 15:50

Noted Bones, but I think the date of that (relatively small) sale is most important here - 4th April. So he was presumably simply using up his annual CGT/tax allowance.

The spending of £50,000 to exercise options 6 years early and retain the resulting shares seems to me much more relevant.

[bones] 16/5/2017 15:43

To be fair Rivaldo, the same chairman sold 141k of shares at nearly 30p each just a month ago (after converting 94k of them at 8p from loans) so he is still quids in even after taking shares from his options at 8p just now. I don't have a problem with it, but just setting out the balance :)

[noujay] 16/5/2017 15:33

Certainly a bit of action here at the moment and so far in the right direction. It feels strong.

[rivaldo] 16/5/2017 15:19

Interesting to see the Chairman paying £50,000 to exercise share options at 8p each in the last 5 days and retaining all the shares. Particularly as these options aren't due to expire until 2023.

Which could lead one to surmise that he's exercising now to minimise any immediate tax charge on exercise, as he's expecting the share price to rise by a reasonable amount in the near future.

Any other explanations happily noted!

[bones] 11/5/2017 22:02

Railtex Expo concluded today:



Hopefully new enquiries will have been generated.

[chunkster] 10/5/2017 17:14

This is ticking up nicely now and not moving down with no news anymore. Looking very strong about time.

[rivaldo] 09/5/2017 12:19

New highs again....

[ileeman] 03/5/2017 13:10

Added some more, looks ready to pop


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[bones] 02/5/2017 13:30

Agreed Noujay. I think the AGM update was as bullish as I have heard Petards management, and was the reason I re-invested. Examples:

"Stadler is a quality Swiss based global train builder and a new customer. This represents an excellent opportunity for Petards to develop internationally."
(New large customer opening doors internationally - no pun intended)

"Investment in UK rolling stock is at record levels giving rise to significant opportunities for Petards."
(growing space in Petards' chief market)

"I am pleased to report we are presently in active negotiations with existing customers over new contracts."
(Likely new contract news in near future?)

"Whilst our defence business has been slow on order intake during the first quarter, indications are that there is further MOD, NATO and third party business in the pipeline. The renewal last December of the three year MOD Systems Adaptive Counter Measures Dispensing Systems Contract is anticipated to bring additional business throughout its duration."
(Potential additional business ongoing in quasi-legacy businesses)

"Petards Provida range of products in the Emergency Services division and QRO are both seeing increased enquiries from many police forces throughout the UK at the start of their financial year."
(Open ended statement so unclear what will be converted but hope is QRO has given Petards more selling power in this sector. The good thing is that QRO did not cost much to buy in net cash terms)

"We entered 2017 with an order book of GBP20 million. At the 31 March this year, it stood at GBP21 million of which GBP13 million is scheduled for delivery by the end of the year."
(Likely to reach at least £17m turnover for 2017 and prospects are that it will increase as orders come in)

The big question is can the management EXECUTE!

We have to hope they do.