Pathfinder Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[melodrama] 26/10/2017 13:42

yep, that was a weird one, two sells of a mill, bid moved up after, now offer. MMs tricks again.

[marbles1234] 26/10/2017 13:29

movement again !

[the stigologist] 26/10/2017 13:23

When the licence issues first emerged they made a £37m write down so that is the starting point for a 'write-back' of value

so you're looking at 15-20p? minimum

[euclid5] 25/10/2017 22:02

Forecast Highlights

Zircon—Raise to price peak of $1350/t in 2H18

With Iluka's stocks apparently the only inventory left in the market, we raise prices to a peak in 2H18 when we expect Iluka's stocks will be exhausted, and it will have restarted mining. We believe customers will accept that higher prices are needed for the critical Jacinth Ambrosia mine to be economic. But we believe Iluka's claims that it is being careful with its price increases, as it would not want to repeat the two-year-boom—fiveyear-bust that occurred after the frenzied price increases of 2011-12.

Rutile—forecasting slow but sustainable price rises across the forecast period

We think Iluka may beat its guidance of a 4% contract rise for 1H-17 (implying ~$750/t). Ruidow reports Tronox rutile sold for ~$870/t CIF in China in April—probably for tetrachloride, not pigments—but still indicating pockets of real price strength. We forecast a price increase of $120/t YoY by 4Q-16. Thereafter, we expect gentle price increases of $50/t per annum, as we expect pigment price increases to be restrained, and Rio Tinto's latent TiO2 slag capacity to respond to any overly strong demand for high-grade feedstock

lmenite—we increase forecasts due to China surge but risk that still too low

Ilmenite prices have surged in China this year in response to solid demand, domestic
supply outages following environmental inspections, and global tightness on Tamil Nadu's export ban ( loss of 40kt per month). China prices are now being experienced by suppliers 26 May 2017 Mineral Sand Forecasts 3 to China—Base Resources reporting a 200% price increase YoY for an April cargo. However, we have assumed these prices increases are not sustainable—they will provoke a supply response from existing mines that will maximise output and perhaps divert supply from slag furnaces to China. We forecast a slower price increase of roughly 100% YoY by 3Q, and further increases in future years. But there is risk that our prices may be too restrained.

Why are prices increasing now?

Mineral sands are not counter-cyclicalR12;price response slowed by inventory
It may seem odd that mineral sands are turning upwards in mid-2017, when the upswing in bulk commodity markets is mature and investors are now focused firmly on detecting the downturn. Markets are predicting the end of the China housing boom, the end of the FAI injections, and potential policy tightening, but meanwhile mineral sand prices lift.

hxxps://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1075659661&serialid=eqDIZ%2B5IxXzJAx20aksEGSjB8%2FwUC19UfWWTQko09ss%3D

[euclid5] 25/10/2017 21:49

Table 1-9: Mineral Prices Mineral per tonne

US$/t (FOB site)

Ilmenite $125 CS2019 CS Forecast $150
Rutile $677 CS 2019 CS Forecast $900
Zircon $1,148 CS 2019 Forecast $1,313

The pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at a 10% discount rate is US$ 529 million Based on old Scoping Study report prices

Updated Credit Suisse 2018 prices = 87% increase

$529m x 87% = $457,975,000 = $987m

$987m /1.30 = £760m NPV / 208m shares = 365p

Technical - theory upside:

Taking just 5% of this NPV at such a early stage plus licence risk issue = 18p or 1,539% upside from the current 0.0115p share price.

Please DYOR


hxxp://www.pathfinderminerals.com/~/media/Files/P/Pathfinders-ECW/Attachments/pdf/pathfinder-Minerals-Scoping-Study-Report.pdf

hxxps://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=csplusresearchcp&document_id=1075659661&serialid=eqDIZ%2B5IxXzJAx20aksEGSjB8%2FwUC19UfWWTQko09ss%3D

[recordz] 25/10/2017 16:43

I think this has gone on for so long, no-one believes in it.
Plus A few other shares recently had court cases that didn't work out in the companies favour too.
The Market will show signs when something might change here, or an RNS.

[the stigologist] 25/10/2017 16:43

An inside day on lower volume. Positive technical confirmation

[danieldanrichardson] 25/10/2017 13:52

No he didn't/No he's not

[the stigologist] 25/10/2017 12:44

Bought/buying more PFP today.

It is testament to the job the 'market' has done to investors that there is not more interest here.

Investors have become cucks.

[danieldanrichardson] 25/10/2017 10:59

And the dump

[marbles1234] 25/10/2017 08:50

big buyers are still in and still buying, retail traders hmmm well need I say more !

Bigs boys waiting for the day traders to get out (bored after 24hrs, you have to laugh) to start buying again imo GLA

[the stigologist] 25/10/2017 08:29

First hour is retail...

let's see what the rest of the day brings

Very positive that yesterday's rise did not prompt a

"We know no reason for share price movement' RNS

[the stigologist] 24/10/2017 19:39

don't take too long...

[euclid5] 24/10/2017 19:20

Lady G, I am aware of the report being old, I just took the initial numbers as a reference point of calculating the NPV that was all

The capital costs are very high I noticed also on this !

I see what I can re calculate on the current commodity values NPV, later this week

[the stigologist] 24/10/2017 17:31

great chart thanks mel

[melodrama] 24/10/2017 17:29

Great bust of Moving averages for the bulls, even above 400 day now

[melodrama] 24/10/2017 17:28

Highest close for a while. Looks like 20th Sept was JP Morgan distribution day, now rising on less volume, which may indicate substance to the negotiations

[the stigologist] 24/10/2017 17:25

Panadin

yes the General was against PFP Board
if he comes on board then it changes the facts
when the facts change i change my opinion, what do you do?

[lady_g] 24/10/2017 16:28

euclid5, that report is over 6 years old. The prices for HMS are substantially higher so you need to rework the numbers.

[euclid5] 24/10/2017 16:20

make the $529m NPV / 1.30 £406m / 208m shs = 195p Npv per share

[euclid5] 24/10/2017 16:18

The pre-tax Net Present Value (NPV) at a 10% discount rate is US$ 529 million

page 17

hxxp://www.pathfinderminerals.com/~/media/Files/P/Pathfinders-ECW/Attachments/pdf/pathfinder-Minerals-Scoping-Study-Report.pdf

[induna123] 24/10/2017 16:12

Don't get hung up on placings. The end goal is the restoration of mining licences. The potential is huge. PFP have been fighting for this for 6 years now. If it means raising £200k every six months then so be it.

This is what they're fighting for.

Interesting post on LSE

Fri 13:36 messyaffair Titanium Needed urgently..... 0.90 No Opinion
Dear General Jacinto

Toshiba has claimed to produce a battery which can be recharged in minutes - Needing Titanium
This shows how important this license area is - PLEASE General get signing and this area will be worth hundreds of millions........

[induna123] 24/10/2017 16:08

We know that, it was only last month.

[euclid5] 24/10/2017 15:46

Yes just seen that in Sept 2017