Parkmead Share Discussion Threads

[mallorca 9] 31/7/2019 07:51

Oh dear, all this excitement and meanwhile Tom couldn't care less.
His focus is clearly elsewhere.
It may rise on speculation, but then , as always, will fall back due to lack of news.

Dear oh dear.

[chutes01] 31/7/2019 04:39

let's see if the buying spree continues ltr today, I expect a surge in sp

[robs12] 30/7/2019 20:45

Fardels - Dana have 59% of Platypus - could that be for sale? Deal between CalEnergy and PMG? Looks like CalEnergy are keen to spend.

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 20:25

But he needs cash to buy stuff. We don't want fundraising at these levels.

[robs12] 30/7/2019 18:14

PMG Summary (and apologies in advance if it is too much info…!):

Tom Cross (TC) took on PMG after Dana was acquired. With the oil price crash the master plan faltered somewhat, but still remains in place – the big elephant being the Greater Perth Area (GPA) hub – a collection of previously discovered but undeveloped fields in the vicinity of the Nexen (CNOOC) operated Scott Platform (Perth is ~10km away).

TC has invested approx. £13.3m in PMG, at an average price of 70p/share, and holds ~19% of the company, and also some 9m in the money options with exercise prices of 35p and 41p. The finance director, Ryan Stroulger has invested some £250K at an average price of £1.56/share, and has approx. 420K options. Other directors also have stakes and options.

PMG raised £40m at 255p/share in 2014, and another £13.5m at 120p/share in 2015. As at 31st Dec 2018 they had cash of £23.6m and are cashflow positive on an operating basis due to the Dutch gas assets. They received £6.2m after 31st Dec as a result of the FPM acquisition, so perhaps £30m cash in the bank now, and no debt.

As at 31st Dec they had 46MMBoe 2P reserves and 100.9MMBoe 2C resources, almost all in the GPA.

They get some income (enough to make a profit last year) from Dutch gas fields – but these are a drop in the ocean compared with the potential of the oil licences and other gas licences they have acquired over a number of years.

Greater Perth Area (GPA) – they now have 100% of Perth, Dolphin, Lowlander, Polecat and Marten, as well as 30% of Athena which was producing but shut in in 2016 when the oil price crashed.

If the GPA is developed (and it is still an ‘if’ but it has been and is central to PMG’s strategy for many years) it will open access to:

1) Perth and Dolphin (PMG 100%) – discoveries, appraised by 17 wells, recoverable and contingent resources of approx. 104 MMBoe. Estimated 498MMBbls total oil in place for all of Perth field.
2) Lowlander (PMG 100%) - (a discovery, appraised by 5 wells, with 21.4 MMBoe 2C)
3) Polecat and Marten (PMG 100%) – Polecat discovered 2005, appraised 2010, appraisal well flowed at 4,373 bbls/day. Marten discovered 1984, three oil bearing sandstones. Together estimated 90MMBoe in place, and 33MMBoe 2C, close to Verbier (15% Jersey O&G) as an aside.

So approx. 160MMBoe 2P & 2C in discovered oil fields, 100% owned by PMG (currently!).

With a high probability that these figures will increase dependent on improved recovery rate - PMG undertook a study through AGR to model potential fracture stimulation of the above reservoirs, which concluded (at least to the extent that has been announced publicly to date) - “New GPA reservoir study concluded that stimulating the Claymore formation would result in a considerable increase in well productivity and is likely to increase the project's oil recovery factor”.

A few years back, Senergy estimated 24% recovery rate for Perth, when 2P was given as 41.3MMBbls. Charles Stanley had to say about it: “For Phase 1, our economic valuation assumes a recovery rate of 24% (based on the Senergy 2P estimates). We expect the actual recovery rate to vary from this current best estimate, perhaps materially because there is quite a bit of uncertainty, in our opinion, relating to the distribution of higher quality sands within the heterogeneous Claymore reservoir. Recovery estimates for the Claymore and Scapa fields, which also produce from Claymore sands, increased over time to 40% and 56% respectively (according to the operator Talisman Energy’s most recent publicly available estimates).”

But if the GPA area is opened up and the facilities allow sour oil production, then the entire area (the “sour crescent”, some 30km radius of Perth/Scott) is estimated to hold some 950MMBoe of stranded oil in discovered but undeveloped fields. Maybe more undiscovered. That is some prize…

Add to this the possibility of bringing Athena back on line (PMG 30%, and Jersey O&G 15%, with Ithaca as operator, and is just outside the 30km radius) with estimated 26MMBBL proven and probable – according to Sproule 2012).
TC has previously stated that this is a possibility - In the Press and Journal, dated Nov 19 2016: “Mr Cross said: “If you’ve got the choice, it makes sense not to produce oil when the price is on the slide. Some companies have to produce oil even at a loss if they are sitting on debt, because banks want to see cash flow, but we are debt-free.” He added the Athena shut-in would continue while Parkmead looks at ways of incorporating the field into its Perth area cluster, one of the largest un-developed oil projects in the North Sea. And he said Parkmead was “right in the middle of engineering talks” to bring together the various fields that make up the area.”

PMG announced (RNS) in November 2018:

“-Engineering study confirmed the technical feasibility of a tie-back of the GPA project to the Scott facilities”

“-Parkmead has entered into commercial discussions with the Scott field partnership in order to explore terms for a tie-back of GPA to Scott”

Also - "The Scott facilities lie just some 10km southeast of the GPA project and a tie-back could yield a number of mutually beneficial advantages for both the Scott partnership and Parkmead. Utilisation of this export route has the potential to transform the GPA project commercially and economically, by dramatically reducing the capital expenditure required to bring the GPA project onstream and by lowering the operating costs thereafter."

And “A number of the proposals have also offered finance to the Group for major parts of the development, further reducing the capital expenditure required to bring the project onstream."

PMG’s latest news regarding Perth on the OGA site states “The Perth development is located in block 15/21C in the Outer Moray Firth. The initial Core Perth development will comprise up to five production and two water injection wells (phased) tied back via a dedicated manifold. The chosen development concept is now a subsea tie-back to the nearby Scott platform, which is circa 10.45km away. The project is scheduled to get OGA approval to go in to FEED in April 2019. FID is planned for Q4 2019 with 1st hydrocarbons currently planned for 1H 2022. We are currently executing a number of scopes with our chosen engineering contractors. We are not looking for any additional support from the supply chain at this time.”

So to summarize on GPA:

- it is very much a live project and negotiations ongoing.
- 160MMBoe 2P+2C of 100% owned, already discovered and appraised resources + potentially 8MMBoe more (net to PMG) at Athena.
- potential to very significantly increase the recovery rate on those.
- FID expected Q4 2019.
- 1st oil expected H1, 2022.

.....

Then we have Platypus where PMG have 15% (Dana are operator), which was discovered in 2010, and appraised in 2012, when it flowed 27MMscfd. Estimated 18.6bcf net to PMG. They target first gas in 2021, and estimate flow rates at greater than 50MMscfd, which is slightly more than Diever West in the Netherlands (where PMG have 7.5%). So if it comes to fruition, they’ll be getting more than twice as much gas from Platypus as they are now from Diever. Possum (PMG 15%, estimated 7.1bcf net to PMG if drilled) and Blackadder (PMG 75%) prospects are also very close by.

From the OGA site “The Platypus field is located in the Southern North Sea gas basin in Blocks 47/5b and 48/1a, 18 km (11.2 mi) north-northwest of the West Sole gas field and 15 km (9.3 mi) west-southwest of the Babbage field. As a result of the successful appraisal well in August 2012 the field is being progressed towards development subject to an economically acceptable transportation offtake route being secured. Further detailed studies and market enquiries are planned for a subsea tie-back in Q2 2019 with sanction expected in Q1 2020 and First Gas in Q4 2021.”

Note that CalEnergy (a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway who just bought into IOG’s SNS hub/pipeline project) also have a 15% stake in Platypus, and a 20% stake in Skerryvore and Ruvaal in the CNS (where PMG have 30% & are operator), so they are likely close, if not good chums.

So another very much live project.

.....


Then there’s Skerryvore and Ruvaal in the CNS – (PMG 30%, CalEnergy 20%).
Skerryvore has potential for 157MMboe recoverable, so 47MMboe net to PMG.

.....

And then two blocks West of Shetland (PMG 100%) - Davaar and Sanda, with together a potential 484MMBoe recoverable. “The Sanda prospects have been de-risked through the drilling of a previous well up-dip of the amplitude anomaly. Parkmead’s experienced team of geoscientists has already undertaken extensive seismic reprocessing work on the licence and has recently acquired detailed geochemical data from the previously drilled well. This new data will be analysed to further de-risk the target ahead of a drilling decision at Sanda.”

.....

PMG are, to put it nicely, not overly forthcoming with information or regular updates. They are not shouting anything from the rooftops - that is the way it is. All the info above is from formal published releases though.

At 57p (today’s close) the market cap is £56m, of which some £30m in cash and maybe an estimated £4m for Aupec (a subsidiary O&G consulting company which turned over £1.2m last year, for a net profit of £425K).

Leaving approx. £22m in the price for the Dutch producing gas (basically most of the revenue of £5.3m and net profit of £2.2m last year) and all the above oil and gas assets.

Do your own sums as to what it might be valued at if GPA & Platypus are announced to be developed in the near future, with a new CPR taking into account an increased recovery rate for GPA, at say $5/bbl in the ground…

Then maybe a farmout for WoS…

Some complain about the lack of information flow. Personally, I think the potential here is so huge (much more than most realize) and it is clear that there is forward progress being made – I’m happy to hold even with minimal RNS’s…

GLA!

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 17:34

Strikes me that it's normal people in the know doing this buying. Not individuals or organisations with deep pockets. Clearly they are also not wanting to advertise that they know something.

[chutes01] 30/7/2019 17:29

Looks as if announcement will come before end of week
1st August ? Thursday

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 17:15

Nope. You've been here all the time.

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 16:40

Off you pop then, mally. But of course you won't, will you?Do we wonder why?No, of course not.

[mallorca 9] 30/7/2019 16:22

I know that one or two have made a little money following some tips of mine ….

Therefore … spend an hour or two researching Inland Homes … INL.

May well be worth your while.

Re PMG … why bother with a business which has a millionaire major shareholder who can't even be bothered to provide a quarterly operations update and seems to have little or no interest in the share price. His focus is clearly elsewhere and in protecting his capital.

The next set of results here … November , will show a huge decline in revenue over the 2nd half of the reporting period.

[mallorca 9] 30/7/2019 15:56

Nat gas prices at a 3 year low.
Nothing else happening until 2021.
Tom taking cash out of the business to invest in another business.
Tell's me that he doesn't have any Capital projects in mind here in the next 18 months.

Better investments elsewhere.

[robs12] 30/7/2019 15:38

Fardels - you may well have a point! Looks like another nice break upwards.

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 15:19

Be careful what you wish for.

[kfr20] 30/7/2019 15:04

Nice flurry of buys

[kfr20] 30/7/2019 12:18

Volume's always key. PMG is simply range bound until there is a game changing announcement.

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 10:57

Softly softly catchee monkey.

[fhmktg] 30/7/2019 10:54

And gently sustained this morning.

[fardels bear] 30/7/2019 08:25

It's a very different pattern though from that of late. Anything markedly different is significant.

[robs12] 30/7/2019 07:08

205,000 shares traded yesterday - just over £100K's worth. It's nothing, a drop in the ocean..

[chutes01] 30/7/2019 01:17

I think this is something other than industry punters and gossip, shorts need to cover.

[fardels bear] 29/7/2019 23:34

Doesn't smell like the usual suspects pumping it back up for another trading cycle. Bit different this time round.