Park Group Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2004 12:12

I think it's buyer buying as the price has ticked up - if there's some major news leaked then I'd expect some larger buys than this to show - greed prevails imo.


Welcome all the same tho.

CR

[nurdin] 25/1/2004 12:11

Yes but as we know nothing is gauranteed here.However if they do manage to find a buyer,they would treat the disposal as a one off gain/loss and report the full year results on continuing activities alone.That could show eps jumping to 2.16p from the earlier 1.63p Hardmanns forecasts.That translates to PE of about 15 with earnings leap of 73% over last year.Shorn of the loss making divion PKG will be a prime position to make further acquisitions in the money lending market..which I expect to follow soon after.

[oscardodd] 25/1/2004 11:53

Nurdin - Answers agreed.

I would guess if the disposal is announced before end March, you would expect impact to be positive, which may explain the recent buying as the market may be expecting the sale.

[nurdin] 24/1/2004 17:51

Have noticed some good buying in PKG recently...perhaps some news soon?

[nurdin] 24/1/2004 14:52

Answers to:

1.Disposal is on the cards.Dont know how long this may take
2.Second half is always stronger then the first,but how strong this time I know not
3.Big impact, as Hardmann have pointed out

[oscardodd] 24/1/2004 14:47

So, surely we have three questions to address.
1. Will they make an announcement on the call centre and if so when?
2. What will the figures be like - was the second half as strong as expected?
3. What impact, if any, will point one have on point two?

If the questions are right, any views?

[nurdin] 24/1/2004 14:37

Interesting what Hardmann are saying about how the call centre disposal would impact PKGs bottom line.Full year profits could lift to £5.3m with eps jumping a massive 32% from their predisposal estimate of 1.64p to 2.17p! That implies a jump of 70% on last years earnings of 1.25p(Hardmanns numbers for 03 are incorrect by the way.)Just goes to show the strength of their core businesses.
Also interestingly their margins improve with any rate rise..simply because all the cash from savers is deposited on a high interest earning accounts.They pay little or no interest to savers.Last year this cash amounted to £70m (from memory)An interest rate hike from 3% to 3.25% adds 8% to their coffers..not a piffling amount when you have £70m in your account!

[diogenesj] 24/1/2004 13:43

Oscar: I have benefited from Robbie Burns' interventions. I was concerned for the less experienced. Anyway, enough of him. :-)

[renegade master] 24/1/2004 13:12

agree Oscar- robbie is just a private investor - we should all make up our own minds about buying and selling - I certainly do. I find him handy as some of his ideas are good.

But let's forget about him and discuss our own ideas!

[cockneyrebel] 24/1/2004 12:24

Sorry, wasn't aware Robbie Burns was still holding - I thought he sold but maybe I'm mixing it up with Clarkson which he bought and sold a bit swift and took a loss - panicked I think where as if he'd followed the stock more he'd be used to its little bout of profit taking. Fortunately I took my profit in HYD before he sold.

I'm just waiting for him to sell Telecom Plus. It's on a ludicrous PE of 30+ despite being basically a utility company - director selling shares this week and the top man flogging over a million a little while back. Going to make a fabulous short if they ever miss or talk down expectations.

CR

[oscardodd] 24/1/2004 11:52

RM/DJ - In my view when investing you have ro remember three things. You need to do your own research (obvious) and from that decide for yourself whether the stock in question is a good investment (again obvious). The last thing is that you need to decide for yourself before you invest what 'your' investment strategy is and this is where too many people get it wrong with Robbie. Robbie is investing for himself and not you, so once he has offloaded he is a happy man. You then need to watch out for yourself.

You never know Robbie might even give us mention on Monday just to prove the point. Go on Robbie you can do it!

So putting RB to one side and getting back onto real business, the big question is where do we see PKG going and in what time frame?

[diogenesj] 23/1/2004 17:52

Costain is a lot more liquid, RM. HYD is an exceptionally tiny and illiquid stock (average daily volume 8,000 shares, according to Investorease).

Robbie and his followers forced it up to a level at which it was clearly absurdly overvalued. When it wavered (there was no downtrend) and he sold his 8,000 shares (equal to the total average daily volume in the stock), it collapsed, and some of the followers must have been burnt.

As a long term holder of HYD, I was grateful to him, because I sold 25% of my remaining holding (bought two years ago for 28p and 24p) near the high for a huge and unexpected profit. Despite this windfall, I think his influence has been undesirable in that case, and could be so in Park Gp, which is another illiquid stock.

To say nothing of Broadcastle (BCS), which I see is another he holds. When a tipster of his undoubted ability and influence starts to go in for these tiny stocks, there is the possibility of manipulation and the creation of a false market.

[renegade master] 23/1/2004 17:32

cant agree with you dj re rb

he picks good stocks and I'm grateful to have made a few quid - hyd was starting an obvious downtrend and profit-taking was fair enough - we all change our minds about targets! Also that was quite an unuaual one most of his are reasonably liquid stocks so youre being a tad unfair - I've noticed many other sells have not created big movements - like costain for example. He also holds shares for quite a while - he held hyd for months so I don't think the corrupting power thing is fair. It's the guys that tip the tiny shares on aim you shoud be having a go at. Anyhow think he's one of the good guys and I've picked up a lot of info from his site, esp regarding market makers and tree shaking

[oscardodd] 23/1/2004 17:31

I agree, Robbie is a clever man. He seems to have a big following. As a User of ADVFN, I wonder what name he posts under?

[diogenesj] 23/1/2004 17:25

Oscar: thanks for the info. With Hydro (HYD) he said his target was 150p. Then he raised it to 200p, but sneakily sold them this week at about 170p. Within minutes of the news appearing on the website, the followers were trampling over each other in the rush for the emergency exit and the shares fell 20%.

This man is good at what he does, but he has acquired an undesirable and potentially corrupting power to move the market to his own advantage imo.

[nurdin] 23/1/2004 17:16

well if PKG dispose of their call centre and robbie and his band dump shares,I will be ready with my cheque book :o)

[oscardodd] 23/1/2004 17:14

He posted on his site on Wednesday stating he was looking for a price of 35p. Obviously the thing to watch out for is when the stock gets to 'his' price both Robbie and his band will all dump the stock.

[diogenesj] 23/1/2004 17:08

Don't tell me Robbie Burns is in these as well! If so, we'll to have to watch out when he does sell (the followers rushing out of this little company all on the same day will really hit the price).

(Just checked the site: looks as though he is holding.)

[oscardodd] 23/1/2004 16:36

CR - I don't understand? - Robbie Burns still holds and expects a price of 35p or did I miss something....

[cockneyrebel] 23/1/2004 15:13

interesting - cheers nurdin - another one Robbie Burns will regret dumping imo.

CR

[nurdin] 23/1/2004 08:19

cambium..the link above gives a good overview of the companys business and the brokers expectations...as D says,disposal of the call center would give a serious boost to the share price,but there are no guarantees here.

[nurdin] 23/1/2004 06:32

Hardmann note dated 12Dec03 on PKG website...

[diogenesj] 22/1/2004 22:49

Just an obscure but interesting little potential recovery story, Cambium: we are hoping that if the company can sort out its loss-making division (a call centre), or close it down or sell it, it will be able to concentrate on its better parts (hampers, shopping vouchers, deposit-taking, and loan sharking), whereupon the market will recognise it for the profitable and undervalued little gem it really is.

Very illiquid, and the chairman controls about 75%, so the free float is even smaller than you would expect. It's not one to bet the house on, but worth a small punt with your gambling money, I'd say.

Don't expect much action before the next results (about 8 June), unless there is a satisfactory announcement about the call centre. The chairman has been quoted as saying that he intends to sort that out by end March.

[cambium] 22/1/2004 22:26

Is this one that you pro's are keeping quite?

Can i ask what is the good stary for PKG?

Inquizatively yours,

cambium