Paragon Entertainment Share Discussion Threads

[1savvyinvestor] 22/1/2018 10:46

Like PJ I am a long term holder in PEL. I like the work they do but their understanding of creating shareholder value and excitement is lamentable. Things can change quickly though and from here I'm hoping that we have a base for something really tangible to support and drive the value of the business. Nobody is going to buy right now though until we get a clearer idea of where we are headed. £20 million turnover by 2020 was often touted as a bare minimum. Is that still an aspiration? Is it going to come with proper profits for the business. We need to know these things.

[pj 1] 19/1/2018 10:13

The main issue for me is that I have no idea if they are going for £5m, £10m or £15m turnover THIS year and relevant profit margins. Its hard to see anyone buying in without at least that guidance.

This premises move is a major project. Its bound to incur one off's and a disruption risk. I'm pretty sure some Grants may be available but funding totally unknown.

[phowdo] 19/1/2018 09:53

Best hope he doesn't negotiate PEL contracts in the same manner that he "negotiated" that 8 grand fee with his broker for buying him some shares in the company.

[pj 1] 19/1/2018 09:49

phowdo, A difficult one but I'm not so sure. It must still be a good % of his annual remuneration i.e. not a token buy from a CEO earning £500k or so?

Plus, it could have been worse if it was a ''sell''?

[phowdo] 19/1/2018 09:33

The fall from 6p to 2p before news suggests there was an amount of insider knowledge. If things were going so well that would again be reflected in the shareprice rising ahead of good news. Currently it is not.
The CEO paying £36K for shares that was trading for £27K wasn't reassuring either.

[1savvyinvestor] 18/1/2018 23:14

completely agree. This is painful to watch. Still holding but it feels like we could be in for a long wait!!

[1renard] 15/1/2018 15:55

Simply not enough having directors buying . Nice signal but we need substantive news otherwise we will dip back below 2p again. Come on board . Give us something to enthuse us

[pj 1] 10/1/2018 19:50

edit- I assume it is Selby DC LOL

[pj 1] 10/1/2018 19:50

WB janeanne

Selby District Council would not confirm if they had received any application or not, however they did confirm that no Planning reference number has yet been issued so I assume they have yet to hit SDC.

[dirtyn] 05/1/2018 16:27

The public consultations took place in November and December which means an application was submitted some time ago. To submit planning you would need a detailed design.
The designs will be in the public domain somewhere...

[playful] 05/1/2018 10:56

Seems a fair risk /reward at the moment.

[janeann] 05/1/2018 10:20

Morning PJ.
Been watching this for a while and finally decied to buy a few back this morning following the recent director buy. Hope this has finally bottomed now.

[pj 1] 04/1/2018 22:27

''We are in the process of carrying out survey and assessment work, which will feed into the plans for the site along with the input we get from this consultation.

We will then submit a planning application to Selby District Council. We hope that this will happen before the end of the year.(2017)

If planning permission is granted, it is intended that Paragon would make a start on constructing their building next year (2018), with a view to occupying in 2019.''

''Our first new occupier at the creative hub at Church Fenton would be Paragon Creative - the largest specialist design and build company in Europe – who would bring 160 jobs and potentially 100 more new, skilled jobs as they grow.''

2017 forecasts were issued in Nov 2016.

It looks to me that they are roughly going for a 60,000 sq ft footprint, Id guess some mezzanine as well and a total guess at a max 100, 000 sq ft (including mezzanine)

Then lots of questions, rent, purchase, and savings (cheaper rent and rates), any Grants, any free rent periods, and off course the Risk that once they have it they have to fill it, or its dead money. I believe they have easy in/out currently.

I'm pretty sure the bank loan is secured on a unit they actually own in Elvington.

Did that answer your questions?

[stiffybristol] 04/1/2018 21:55

The premises move will be some time ahead. No application has been lodged yet for the new business park. You can expect 16-50 weeks for a decision, no one will start on building reg drawings until PP is granted, after that you would have the costing and bidding before works start. You can count 2018 out.

I can't see how you can expect 2018 forecasts so early, some of the order book will be known but surely 75% is still unknown. When do they normally make a forward year comment?

They will probably know what they made for 2017 year end within 50K.

[pj 1] 04/1/2018 12:28

Maybe the CEO buy yesterday is an indicator the 2 delayed orders (at high margin) have now 'landed'? If so I'd be hopeful of 2018 forecasts being promptly released.


At some point I'd like more information on the premises move, funding, logistics etc

[1savvyinvestor] 04/1/2018 12:22

We still need some real and meaningful news if this is going to be more than a two day rally though

[playful] 03/1/2018 23:15

MP was happy to buy at twice the price last year so I don’t think 2.5p seems irrational.

[1savvyinvestor] 03/1/2018 23:10

Still slightly odd that he accepted a buy at 2.5. He could have bought gradually and that would have gradually massaged price higher. But it's clear that any substantial purchase will be at a significant premium to existing price.

[stiffybristol] 03/1/2018 16:37

Hard to buy big blocks at the buy price. It has given me the confidence to add more. Wish I had bought some more yesterday! You might see this past 3p pretty quickly now. I still think the company is in the best position it has ever been.

[travellingtrader] 03/1/2018 16:06

I hope the CEO doesn't treat financial contracts in the same way he has treated his share purchase.
PEL will be back to loss making in no time.

[pj 1] 03/1/2018 16:03

fat finger surely?

[phowdo] 03/1/2018 16:01

Blimey the MMs mugged the CEO if he paid 2.5p for those.
The transactions all went through at less than 2p...

[pj 1] 08/12/2017 09:14

EBITDA of £700k gives an EV/EBITDA of roughly x7, which the Market awarded for quite some time historically.(and with reasonably level depreciation/amort etc etc ). There must be some risk of 'one off costs' if the Business is being (or has been) 'streamlined'?

[pj 1] 08/12/2017 08:35

Thanks for the feed back playful.

stiffybristol-I wouldn't calculate P/E 's against EBITDA,