Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 06/3/2023 07:52

Now its the SMD that's the real prize. As usual always the next thing, not the current thing. In my opinion we still need to see production figures for March and April to observe behaviour over time. A steep decline more or less ends the current target, a shallow curve would perhaps preserve viability at $130 oil prices.

gregpeck - PANR will go on for years. Investors show no sign of pulling back on the amount of equity they are prepared to fund. Not to the extent of the $100-200mn required to properly evaluate the area where Alkaid 2 is, but they'll always find funds for the next single well.

I hope this sees an end to the tick tock nonsense. Truly the most childish and pathetic thing I have ever encountered from what is supposed to be a serious and thoughtful discipline.

[johnswan193] 06/3/2023 07:44

What price today. 30p? Lower?

[truant2tb1] 06/3/2023 07:42

Be nice to see 30p today

[marto1000] 06/3/2023 07:41

It's a tale of 2 stories....the well performance is very strong......but on pure raw oil flow numbers (that retail investors want to see) maybe not the spectacular hit we had hoped. The oil flow rate at Alkaid #2 remained pretty much the same as before the cleanout, and was smaller than the company expectation for valid reasons, but the reservoir deliverability was "good" and this was the key deliverable of the production test which has potentially upgraded the entire PANR portfolio.  The single biggest risk with Alkaid and in fact all of Pantheon's portfolio is reservoir deliverability...Is the reservoir energised and can it reservoir deliver liquids in good volumes without artificial means!! Alkaid #2 has done that in spades with flow rates of I think up to ~1,400bbls of liquids per day.....but the well has not improved its Barrel of Oil per day rates from before the clean out, due to the gas gap it intersected during drilling causing too much gas to come into this well. Most people acknowledge the large amounts of discovered oil with Pantheon (Schlumberger SLB resource 17.8 billion barrels), but there are lots of concerns (reasonable concerns) about can they produce at commercial production rates – this good deliverability result at Alkaid #2 is a major de-risking event which applies to the entire Pantheon portfolio, and will be important in any major oil company farm-in.  Large Oil companies will not overly concern themselves about exact oil flows on any individual well...they will look at liquids deliverability for the reservoir. The IP30 production rate is calculated at c.505 barrels per day ("BPD") of liquid hydrocarbons consisting of c.180 BOPD oil, c.325 BPD of condensate and natural gas liquids ("NGLs"), along with c.2,300 mcfpd natural gas.  This delivers close to 1,000 boepd ie (hydrocarbons) not including frack fluids and/or formation water. Alkaid is flowing naturally without artificial lift demonstrating the good deliverability of the oil reservoir....this is a very positive! It is not the actual oil and NGL flow rate that matters in this test – it's the total fluid rate which includes the frack fluid and any formation water – hence the actual reservoir flow rate would be higher (~1,400bbls per day) than those reported. This is excellent and probably in line with expectations. Condensate and NGLs are estimated to achieve 80% - 90%, or potentially higher, of Alaska crude oil price which typically trades at a premium to WTI oil. This lighter high-quality oil is a perfect addition to the heavier crudes currently being produced on the slope. The company was hoping for a greater percentage of oil in those total fluids production but as they mentioned in the RNS – the first well is always difficult to get right, but still a good result, and it's an easy fix to position the next well lower in the hydrocarbon column to optimise oil flow. Picking an 8 inch section out of several hundred feet of oil bearing rock to test the zone can be challenging and will take a few iterations. The oil in place across PANR leases is massive on a global scale. Selecting the best locations and correct testing plan will take time and they have the world's best (SLB) advising them. PANR have stated the standalone economics deliver a 20% IRR on the Alkaid results to date. This underwrites any development but the economics are skinny – so the real upside is the Shelf Margin Deltaic (SMD) zone which is the oil zone immediately above the current zone being tested. The SMD has better reservoir qualities than the current Alkaid zone, with better porosity and more importantly permeabilities 10-20 times better.  Alkaid #1 & #2 both penetrated the SMD, hence an operation to test these zones in the original vertical well sections provides significant   upside. The SMD oil accumulation is much larger than the Alkaid Zone as it extends through to the Pipeline State and Talitha well locations and can be easily tested from the highway location.  The company has stated that the SMD is over 5 times larger (400mbbls) than the Alkaid testing Zone (77mbbls) and with the better reservoir qualities than the current testing zone – will see the economic upside of Alkaid  "turbo charged" with the SMD oil as part of the development.  The good performance of the current test has significantly upgraded the SMD which would utilise the same infrastructure.   In hindsight it may have been better to test the SMD, but this current zone had already tested some 108 barrels from a vertical 6 ft test at Alkaid 1 and hence was considered lower risk. With two wells, Alkaid 1&2 already penetrating the SMD zone – re-entering and testing the SMD is a low cost and high impact event with near term commerciality because of the highway location.  Although Alkaid is only 4% of PANR portfolio - it is important in that it needed to demonstrate reservoir deliverability – which it did !  It's now a case of optimising well locations and well completions techniques to boost the percentage of oil in the total production stream which will happen, but I admit it has been a pain in the butt well running overtime and obviously needing a clean-up. Netherland Sewell & Associates (NSA) are a top 3 firm in the world servicing all the leading Oil companies, and their CPR over Theta West and Alkaid will be of significant importance to the markets and global oil companies.  Pantheon do have the biggest Onshore USA conventional discovery in the last 15 years.  They will need to demonstrate to the market with the help of NSA the next steps to achieve the results needed to effect a sale of the company like Oilsearch paid for Pikka paid for $3.10 per barrel, noting Pantheon have just over 2billion barrels recoverable.  The results are good but as always there are more hurdles to jump which is normal with big projects but we are still very much alive across the whole portfolio.

[michaelsadvfn] 06/3/2023 07:38

We IP'd at over 500 barrel of oil and condensate and almost 500 barrels of gas to oil equivalent, equalling 1,000 BOE/d which actually indicates excellent reservoir deliverability...

That from an oil man, not a spiteful muppet wanting everything to fail.

[pro_s2009] 06/3/2023 07:36

But but but it's small and it's the gas cap and in future future future future we will do it better.

Texas.... Alaska....

Failure after failure.... Shame really.

Better luck next time for anyone ramped unto this by scotty sven and the others.

[truant2tb1] 06/3/2023 07:34

A disgraceful update from a sham of a company

[scot126] 06/3/2023 07:30

Your shorts have been profitable, but for the wrong reason. The reservoir deliverability has proven to be good, maybe very good, but the gas cap has had a material effect.

If any of us were to look back on all your vapid posts, not one of you was beating the drum for the lateral to be positioned 50ft lower.

[scot126] 06/3/2023 07:29

On a result from a distinct reservoir making up <4% of the total asset base? No chance. That's lunacy.

[kirk 6] 06/3/2023 07:28

Game over completely

[scot126] 06/3/2023 07:26

Your shorts have been profitable, but for the wrong reason. The reservoir deliverability has proven to be good, maybe very good, but the gas cap has had a material effect.

If any of us were to look back on all your vapid posts, not one of you was beating the drum for the lateral to be positioned 50ft lower.

[johnswan193] 06/3/2023 07:18

Failure after failure. Expect there will be some gas rich and oil wet undies around here this morning. Shorts have been proved right.

[gregpeck7] 06/3/2023 07:13

Hopefully this is it now and PANR goes to the wall where it belongs.

[bad gateway] 06/3/2023 07:12

Nice to have been right all along but sorry for the holders.

[thebull8] 06/3/2023 07:07

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha What happened to the 1000s of barrels of oil?

[gregpeck7] 06/3/2023 07:04

Love them Texan excuses. The well ain't commercial after all the partying around. Shock.

[olderwiser2] 05/3/2023 22:20

Sharing some thoughts on the flowback post well clean out.

The estimated target to achieve good representative reservoir contact has moved up from the original 40% to 60%. This target has moved as more well data has been collected during the flow back/clean out phase to date.
We also know that ~40% of the total injected has been recovered from the unblocked 75% of the horizontal section. Run that through the calculator and it shows the front 75% is at ~53% frack fluid recovery after some 30 days of sustained production post the coil tubing clean out.
(Leaving the complication of the initial 10% frack fluid recovery, pre clean out aside, as its origins are unknown, but fair to say more from the heel than the toe)
Recovery of frack fluid also follows a decline curve, so recovery will taper off over the last 7% in the front 75% of fractures. As this tapers off the oil flow will be tapering up, I would expect this to be substantially complete in 14 to 28 days, after which the oil rate will begin to trend down as is normal.
Where it gets complicated is the back 25% of newly unblocked horizontal, starts from almost zero and will required a similar time frame (44 to 58 days) to reach the 60% frack fluid recovery. In this same timeframe its oil flow will also be trending up as the frack fluid is recovered.
In time, and given the different production curve timings of the front and back sections of horizontal well. These two production curves will meet as the front curves down and the back curves up. That is the first key marker on decline curve analysis, and as fortune would have it is likely by the AGM and subsequent webinar on the 20th of March

[mlf51] 05/3/2023 15:17

I think you'll find,very soon,that it's the gang and their masters that are in denial.tick tock.