Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[scot126] 26/1/2023 15:56

hpcg - I don't know what you're up to but olderwiser2 is factually correct. Don't believe him? Go look at the SoA DNR website and read the letter issued by the regulator following the tribunal hearing about flaring.

You owe olderwiser2 an apology. Whether you opt to correct the record is your call, but an honourable person would wish to do so.

While you're at it, research what constitutes a LTPT. Then drum it into your (deliberately?) contrary brain that a post-LTPT reserves report will be worth hundreds of millions (billions?) dollars more to PANR shareholders than any "lost" revenue from NGLs over a 3-9 month duration.

[forwood] 26/1/2023 15:03

40% frac fluid recovery is best guesstimate. If it's actually less, then so much the better.

[bad gateway] 26/1/2023 14:59

"Already deemed commercial, despite the sand blockage, only 40% frac fluids recovered and choke on to restrict flow prior to full clean up."

Is that statement factually correct? I thought they stated in the webinar they've recovered 40 percent of the volume of fluids they've put down the well but that 40 percent includes an unspecified amount of formation water so the amount of "frack fluids" they're managed to recover is yet to be seen,
Thankfully not long to wait for an answer now. (unless they delay results til after the placing)

[shanig] 26/1/2023 14:58

Great summary, thanks.

[forwood] 26/1/2023 14:39

Whatever the bears think they know and what they don't know, they certainly don't understand this and haven't taken anything on board from the recent webinar, typical of their totally negative attitude here. Those of us who do understand it, especially the oil industry veterans within the shareholder group, are very confident.

Key positives from the webinar:

Already deemed commercial, despite the sand blockage, only 40% frac fluids recovered and choke on to restrict flow prior to full clean up.

Nordic Calista Workover rig arriving on site today to commence 10 day sand removal operation.

Clean up operation (frac fluid return, etc) to continue from c 6 Feb.

Flow test to resume with initial results towards end Feb

Decision on whether to install condensate / ngl capture equipment (last year cost c $750k) post clean up when mix can be re-evaluated.

Value of current (ie pre clean up) mix c $40k a day.

Commitment to an independent competent person's report of potential recoverable volumes, in order to firm up and continue to de-risk the commercial potential of Pantheon's discoveries. This can be used to support exchange listing application as well as fund raising.

No plans for immediate cash raise - fully funded for current well operations and enough working capital to take them through to 2024. Preferred route to fund future well development(in SMD) from farm out but could be capital raise.

Exploring dual listing and transition to main exchanges likely as projects advance.

Will always consider strengthening board and operational control.

Schlumberger (the pre-eminent oil services company in the world) offered and will manage the dataroom + confirmed they've haven't come across anything negative in their exhaustive review of the data and estimated 17.8 bn barrels oil in place. Now moving on to estimate recoverable volumes.

Even allowing for uprated well costs, and based on current flow rates (ie before any improvement to flow), modelled assumptions on Alkaid development with oil at $80 as barrel generates a net pre tax NPV10 value of $423m.

Alkaid is less than 4% of Pantheon's total current estimated recoverable oil and by itself supports the companies current market cap, without allowing for the inherent value of finds in Talitha, SMD and Theta West fields.

[rabito79] 26/1/2023 14:03

'Sell all their millions of shares' that's just not true is it Helpfull?

[padamster] 26/1/2023 12:54

Unhelpful being unhelpful as usual 😂

Be very careful

[helpfull] 26/1/2023 12:46

Cor blimey, guv!

"They must know more than the board of directors"

The BOD knew enough to sell all their millions of shares at 123p. That was quite canny. Don't underestimate what the BODs know. It might cost you money.

Be careful.

[padamster] 26/1/2023 12:30

Jaknife. It is very interesting they hold their shorts. They must know more than the board of directors 😂

[thebull8] 26/1/2023 12:19

Why would they when they can cover in the upcoming placement ;-)

[bigdazzlerreturns2] 26/1/2023 10:14

"We do not believe our Alkaid#2 result has been fully understood by the market…..




Well is it not fully understood or does the market just not believe……;


It would appear the market is siding with the bears and more misery or jam tomorrow story.

[olderwiser2] 26/1/2023 09:29

hpcg

Are you consciously getting this so wrong.
They will stop producing after 9 months because they only have permission to test for 9 months. After that they will have the data to design a permanent facility.
Yes it would be lovely to get more cash by capturing the additional Hydrocarbon liquids, but not if it does not payback in what remains of the short 9 month test interval. Edit The 9 months is a maximum, in practice it is reviewed every three months with no guarantees beyond that, so prudence would apply to capital spending
A 20 year production life would of course be different.
Current high gas production is holding oil production back, I suggest you invest the time in watching the webinar, it is all in there

[hpcg] 26/1/2023 09:16

olderwiser2 - how can it not be worth the cost? Why would they stop producing after 9 months? Perhaps it is a function of the time it takes to get a bog standard bit of equipment to the site and installed? In any case it means that the company will obtain very little revenue this year from A#2 and necessarily substantially less operating profit. You have to go through some pretty impressive mental acrobatics to think it is fine for a company to go out of its way to not maximise returns, especially given the time they have had to implement.

If the NGLs produce out rapidly then empirically their economic model is trashed. The flow rate is not constrained, liquids have been coming at half the rate of a garden tap. Longer chain molecules are unlikely to replace NGLs at the same rate and for them to produce quicker is basically physically impossible.

[forwood] 26/1/2023 08:46

Mmm - I think that's the right term. Reducing (the impact of) the choke to produce optimum flow.

[fordtin] 26/1/2023 08:32

forwood re "the choke is reduced "

I hope the choke will be opened up. A smaller choke will reduce flow?

[forwood] 26/1/2023 08:14

And that decision, I expect, depends on the mix once the lateral is cleaned up, we've recovered 60% or more frac fluids and the choke is reduced to produce optimum flow.

[olderwiser2] 26/1/2023 06:20

hpcg Post no 31648

You have failed to read or comprehend the entire paragraph, so have unfortunately argued your misunderstanding. Reading the out of context section you have quoted, I can see how you have gone down the wrong rabbit hole.

Your quote
"in this 9 month test, is down to pure economics, is the additional cash flow going to justify the costs. Bear in mind Alkaid 2 is about proving the deliverability of the reservoir, not cash flow"

Now read it in context
The rich gas volume is producing an unusually high proportion of NGLs and condensate, that are not being captured, as the plant design did not anticipate it. Whether it is worth spending the capital to capture and sell the condensate and NGLs that are being produced, in this 9 month test, is down to pure economics, is the additional cash flow going to justify the costs. Bear in mind Alkaid 2 is about proving the deliverability of the reservoir, not cash flow

Just in case there is still some confusion in your mind, it is about whether it is worth spending additional capital to recover the NGLs and condensate at this stage of a 9 month test. PANR will make this decision based on the economics as more data is acquired