Pantheon Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 11/8/2015 10:47

I suppose the big difference is I'm now retired and my SIPP is in drawdown mode. As a result I can't/shouldn't afford to be caught out in a Market rout; as I can no longer assume that the rout will be limited in timescale and be followed by the boomerang a la 2009...

The long-term effects of QE are a very big unknown unknown. Can all global government debt just be written off? Are Central Bank balance sheets sustainable? Nowadays no-one knows any more. The certainties of the past are gone. All makes for a certain nervousness; at least it does in my book.

[rcturner2] 11/8/2015 10:42

mf, I don't think you can be a long term investor any more. In the 1950s when people held shares on average for 6 years, the world did not change very fast. Now things are changing so quickly that a big company could be gone tomorrow. A fast growing company could achieve 3 years of growth and then stall. PE takes advantage as that as they tend to buy and move on fairly quickly. Other value plays like defensives one can buy when they are objectively cheap and then sell when they rise. I have found that it is very rare that I hold any stock or fund for longer than 2 years.

[mad foetus] 11/8/2015 10:30

sky, RC,
I'm being an optimist, but think 10% a year is an achievable target. You clearly need a blend of investments and you can only measure things over the course on an entire economic cycle (which begs the question of where in the cycle we are now of course.

The real question I am struggling with is whether, as someone who is genuinely a long term investor, I would be better off putting everything into a blend of a few global funds/trusts (say 20% into Henderson Smaller Companies, and 40% into each of Fundsmith and Witan) or whether it is better to faff around myself. Obviously there are lots of other funds that one could equally choose. But HSL has managed 15% pa since its manager was appointed over a decade ago and is still at a 15% discount. Fundsmith doubled in its first 3 years. KWE is targeting 15% pa and is managing to hit that.

I must keep better records so I know what my ytd performance is!

[rcturner2] 11/8/2015 10:17

I target 7%. I usually beat this, but there do seem to be far fewer safe options these days.

[skyship] 11/8/2015 10:12

"...there don't seem to be a huge number of cautious investors on advfn who are looking for investments that grow in an unspectacular way by 10-15% pa."

10%-15% was in itself pretty impressive in the past; but NOW? Such a return would be extremely welcome for the cautious investor. I've certainly had to lower my expectations. I used to target 12% and achieve 14%. I now target 8%; but suspect I'll end the year at 4% if lucky...

Of course those discounts in 2009 were an exceptional opportunity; the type of value only available in recent history back in 1974/5. 2009 was a fantastic year for those who stayed invested; unfortunately it had to follow 2008!

[mad foetus] 11/8/2015 09:18

Thanks damako, there don't seem to be a huge number of cautious investors on advfn who are looking for investments that grow in an unspectacular way by 10-15% pa. For personal reasons I wasn't investing actively in 2008/9, but the discounts that opened up in the PE sector were clearly exceptional investment opportunities.

But as you say, c'est la vie. Hopefully I'll be able to look back in 20/30 years time when the share price is well north of £100 and remember an investment that did what it said on the tin.

All the best.

[damanko] 10/8/2015 18:53

Hello MF, as I mentioned previously - the best of luck with your investment, I do like to hear/read that term 'long time holds'.

Having bought Pantheon in the eighties at less than a pound, I'm approaching the time when selling seems a good idea, merely for personal reasons. It's been a decent and at times interesting ride, and I wouldn't change a thing.

Well, to clarify that, when the share price nosedived in 2009 and I bought some more, perhaps I should have been even more brave ...

C'est la vie though, and I shouldn't really complain. And won't.

Once I sell I hope that you, and other newer investors take on the mantle and continue this thread, it has an interesting history and younger people should take over.

Regards,

damanko

[mad foetus] 05/8/2015 12:07

thanks bamboo, much appreciated. I've bought in twice in the last month, average price of around £13, but I've reached a point in my life where I just want to buy long term holds at relatively cheap prices. Let's see how it pans out.

[bamboo2] 04/8/2015 19:10

Hi mf, since you mentioned it over the way, I did a chart for PIN too. Another modest target, but still positive in a near term, time setting. I almost decided to try and trade this, but having been away, feel that I'm not back up to speed on the markets yet, so left it for now.

This is a confirmed Falling Wedge with an upside b/o. T=1370

[damanko] 08/7/2015 10:05

Hello MF, and good luck with your investment, one to lock away, even if Greece exits Europe and negotiates with Blake's 7 to join the Terran Federation... Pantheon will be okay.

[rcturner2] 08/7/2015 09:05

Welcome onboard mf. Always been a good one for me, a steady earner.

[mad foetus] 08/7/2015 08:38

I've bought in here. PIN is a very solid performer and this looks like a good entry point. As ever, looking to hold for a very long time, aiming for 10% pa, which historically is achievable.

[rcturner2] 23/6/2015 09:13

Good find skyship, thanks.

[skyship] 23/6/2015 09:00

Very positive comment on PIN:

[skyship] 19/6/2015 10:44

Yes, today's RNS shows a good recovery in the NAV; but only back up to where they were 3months ago. A bit of a currency play this one.

Having sold out last year I couldn't resist buying a few CDI at 268p yesterday. Perhaps a bit of a risk ahead of EXPRO's finals on 26th June (Expro, an oil/gas services company, represents 26% of the PV); but the JPMorgan "Holdings" RNS might suggest the bottom is now in over there.

At a 50% discount to the historic NAV; and 50p below the 312p Director Michael Fallen paid for a small top-up c3weeks ago, now might be the time to take a look again..

Elsewhere in the PE space I sold OCL for a small turn and bought into BPM, which on a 30% discount still represent very good value. Also bought into LMS recently ahead of the next Tender.

So now hold:

# BPM
# CDI
# JPEL
# LMS
# MTH

[rcturner2] 19/6/2015 08:57

Bought back in again today.

[skyship] 18/11/2014 17:06

RCT - from my P.No.99 above:
============================

I continue to hold:

# CDI - though much reduced due to concerns over EXPRO
# JPEL
# MTH - another Tender coming up
# NRI - good stats last week
# OCL - a recent purchase
============================

FORGOT - also hold PEY as well - bought very recently @ 6.79 after the publication of encouraging stats...At 7.10 they still yield 7.61% and offer an 18.2% NAV discount.

[rcturner2] 18/11/2014 11:47

PEY anyone?

[damanko] 18/11/2014 11:21

SKY,

Bonjour and I trust all is ca va down there ...

3i is the only one on my radar, though I fear the best days (in terms of rapid growth in NAV & SP) are perhaps gone.

A large dip in the market in general may prove a buying opportunity.

Over the past few years I've sold long term holdings in RIT, HG Capital, Dunedin Enterprise and Strategic Equity Capital, all of which proved absolute stars - eventually.

The gradual narrowing of the NAV discount in PIN rather forced my hand, though I note the market continues to chase the shares ever upwards.

The money and thus (as you know) profit is in the bank, similar with the shares I sold last week in PIN. Happen I should look for a wheelchair with a turbo and put it in the cupboard. Just in case ...

[rambutan2] 17/11/2014 15:54

Sky, I switched most of mine to PINR, saving nearly a 100p per share. I'm not worried about the lack of liquidity and spread (although currently a tight 20p) as they are a core long term position for me. One day they will gain parity with PIN as it's in everyone's interest.

The port, which is pretty mature, still has plenty of growth of give imho and should continue to outperform.

[skyship] 17/11/2014 12:51

D - they've certainly proved a PE star; but now at just a 15.7% discount they perhaps look over-valued versus some peers.

I continue to hold:

# CDI - though much reduced due to concerns over EXPRO
# JPEL
# MTH - another Tender coming up
# NRI - good stats last week
# OCL - a recent purchase

Flirted with DNE, but decided no, so quickly cut ----I know, I know!

Do you have a favourite in the sector now - beyond PIN that is...

[damanko] 17/11/2014 11:54

Well, at the current twelve pounds plus some of my holding may have to go, in the absence of any special dividend (in fact, of any dividend at all ...).

Holders who bought in some five years ago, when the share price drooped to something around the £2 mark will feel quite good regarding their investment nous. Or very, very lucky. I'm in the latter camp, rather than sell my original holding I chose to top up at that level.

Though the original holding dating back to 1989 will remain a core holding, as apparently Zimmer frames and decent wheelchairs are becoming better value as each year passes.

As mentioned in previous years, this is quite a quiet thread, thankfully. Though I wonder how many long term holders are left who read it?

Not many, if at all is my guess ...

[rcturner2] 23/6/2014 09:25

Discount of 17% at current share price.

[rcturner2] 23/6/2014 07:19

3.2% gain in the last month. Superb performance here.

[rcturner2] 28/5/2014 13:26

You can draw a ruler under that uptrend.