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[ngms27] 07/3/2022 15:26

dhb368, PANR is currently a spin of the dice on the lower BFF at Theta West. I think the dice are heavily loaded and await the result of my spin.

It really is that simple.

[dhb368] 07/3/2022 14:57

ngms - I personally attribute NO VALUE at present to:
1) Lower BFF @ Theta West though I'm expecting the best result yet
2) Upper BFF @ Theta West - Not expecting time to test this year
3) SMD likely won't be tested to next year and must carry a good risk of failure
4) Kuparuk

That simply CANNOT be true unless you have sold out?

Only a fool would hold onto PANR at these levels based upon potential at Alkaid, BFF lower @ Talitha & SFS @ Talitha only.

I think you are up to mischief again ngms.

[chris0805] 07/3/2022 14:36

Some folk know more than others... we are all aware of that are we not?

[michaelsadvfn] 07/3/2022 14:35

ngms has personally written off the SMD.

Management has not.

I’ll leave it at that.

[ngms27] 07/3/2022 14:28

So to me the valuation of PANR is totally on successfully flow tested zones so I have:
1) Alkaid anomaly
2) BFF lower @ Talitha
3) SFS @ Talitha

I personally attribute no value at present to:
1) Lower BFF @ Theta West though I'm expecting the best result yet
2) Upper BFF @ Theta West - Not expecting time to test this year
3) SMD likely won't be tested to next year and must carry a good risk of failure
4) Kuparuk

[senttothegallows] 07/3/2022 14:24

There is a pretty big argument that we haven't yet had credit for SFS amazing how this is being ignored in current discussions. We will no doubt get management estimates for this near term IMHO

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 14:22

………;“for now”. Thanks for that (very important) clarification of a previous omission.

So after posting the 4 reasons, you don’t actually think it’s anything other than an operational issue, with value being proven next year.

Shouldn’t really have been that hard for you to write that in the first place should it? Hopefully nobody was misled (Forwood, johnswan?). Anyway, thanks for clarifying.

[btgman] 07/3/2022 14:17

Filter button needed here some of the above comments are absolute insanity.

Shelf Margin Deltaic is currently blocked but they already know from the VAS it exends from Alkaid to Talitha

Write it off if you like but quite frankly that is idiotic. SMD will be worth several $b

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[rabito79] 07/3/2022 14:17

Well you have certainly thrown your net wide this time ngms. Is it not fair to say that if any of those reasons were true then the board would not be stating their enthusiasm for SMD is undiminished?
Note you have chucked in a won’t get Upper BFF tested for good measure. BINGO full house.

[ngms27] 07/3/2022 14:11

I've said I've written it off for now as I don't think it will have any value until proven which now will be 10 months plus away.

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 13:49

They are all questions ngms - what is your view against those 4 and what rationale have you used to come up with that view? Please don’t obfuscate by asking more questions!

Of course you’ll leave it at that, it’s your MO (as well as perhaps using your spare time between being asked a question and coming up with an answer to google stuff!)

Believe it or not, virtually everyone on this board wants to gain more insight, irrespective of author, if it’s meaningful. You had the opportunity to do that, with rationale, but have failed. “I’ll leave it at that”.

[cezuan] 07/3/2022 13:44

@ngms geodesrock thinks broadly that "the well sanded off during flow back" which he thinks is very common and "an easy fix by circulating out the sand with gelled water".

Is that one of your cases?

You seem to relate the sand issue with poor reservoir quality and GR does not. Is that necessary iyo?

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 13:37

What’s your avatar on Discord Forwood?

[ngms27] 07/3/2022 13:36

Fracking fluid is generally >= 98% water. The rest is made up by additives such as acid, detergents, salts, alcohols, disinfectants. Either sand or ceramic proppant is also used in the process.

In this case we know that sand proppant is being used.

So if you frac and the fluids don't come back and you suspect a blockage, what would cause a blockage given the proppants are their to keep the fractures open?

Could it be poor workmanship?
Could it be reservoir properties such as thin reservoir sands with interbedded clays that swell when mixed with water?
Could it be that the sands are very low permeability due to diagenesis and contain very little oil and will never flow?
A mixture of the above?

I'll leave it at that, I suspect if they have time they will try and acid job but lets see, for now I've personally written it off.

Note I expect the lower BFF to flow 150 bopd potentially more at Theta West and that's the important bit.

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 13:01

Hi Forwood. Oh yes he has. Is it pantomime season or something?!

He’s provided his valuable input as far as I’m concerned - he’s described it as technical issue. I’ll let people make their own decision by reading it themselves. The analysis from geodesrock has also been shared on Discord. Just trying to help people get as much insight as they can.

Do you have any insight? If so, please share.

[forwood] 07/3/2022 12:35

pos - no he hasn't

[sandcrab2] 07/3/2022 12:30

Someone on here wrote the following recently

“Most likely they will need to use a different frac fluid for the SMD. Blockages during fraccing is an issue that happens and can be resolved with a bit of work, nothing major”

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 12:16

He’s done it on discord Dan de lion.

[dan de lion] 07/3/2022 12:10

Pity that Telemachus feels unable to give us his valuable input on this board!!!

[chris0805] 07/3/2022 11:59

Conor Maguire note out.. https://valuesits.substack.com/

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 11:44

Thank johnswan.

[johnswan193] 07/3/2022 11:39

POS, no. My initial reaction to the recent RNS was to focus on the possibility that the SMD would not flow and I wanted to understand whether the blockage explanation was universally accepted or if it could be a sign of something worse. Yet to read any substantiated views about it not being a blockage and I think the share price reaction priced in not revisiting at Talitha this season rather than completely writing off the zone.

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/3/2022 11:22

Hi Forwood, johnswan. Has ngms provided anymore rationale to either of you (given you also asked)? Thanks.

[officerdigby] 07/3/2022 11:19

NGMS why are.they running out of time 88E.havent even spud...Plenty time to do everything including go back to SMD.and have a fiddle about IMO.

[madd_rip] 07/3/2022 11:05

Already won it.