Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[chris0805] 12/2/2022 19:41

We have all been there ;-))

[fordtin] 12/2/2022 18:00

Thanks Chris,

post 22619 edited, I should know better than to post on a beer day!

[chris0805] 12/2/2022 17:56

Good post but does opening need editing to say Talitha A test rather than Alkaid test?? GLAC

[fordtin] 12/2/2022 17:11

As a follow-up to post 22618; please carefully read the following (published before Talitha test was carried out), then read the latest RNS reporting the actual results from Talitha test;



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"Wide ranging and high impact newsflow in 2022" [TP raised from 170p to 200p]

Canaccord Genuity view

Pantheon has raised $96m (upscaled from $70m) to provide the funding necessary for an extended, varied, and very high impact operational programme in 2022. We expect operations to begin very soon, and to include the drilling and testing of two/three new wells and the testing of a previously drilled well, at its 100% held licences onshore Alaska. We see a number of key attractions to the programme including:

Large Scale: Targeting c.2 bnbbls net resources. Excellent location: Onshore Alaska, close to oil services, road access (Dalton Highway), and crude oil export via Trans Alaska Pipeline. Catalysts: Numerous, starting early Q1, lower risk exploration to appraisal. Drilling and testing two new wells (Theta West-1, Alkaid-2H), testing four zones in Talitha#A well, with a longer-term Alkaid test to include oil sales. A fourth well, at Alkaid, is likely to be added following the upscaled raise.

In our view, this comprehensive and very exciting programme could result in a significant uplift in market valuation and a considerably raised industry profile, which in turn could lead to a potential farm-out or sale.

2022 Operational plan:

Talitha#A (Q1 22, $11m): Test, using a coiled tubing unit, four hydrocarbon zones found in Q1 2021 well. Should provide valuable information about several reservoirs that will not be tested elsewhere in 2022.

Theta West (Q1 22, $17m): 10.5 miles NW of Talitha, targeting thicker, higher quality Basin Floor Fan reservoir. Success, especially in the lower BFF, could prove up >1bnbbls recoverable resources, and
dramatically shift market view of value.

Alkaid-2H (H2 22, $23m): A horizontal well and longer-term test of the deeper reservoir (previously successfully tested in Alkaid-1) to include trucked oil sales. Success could substantially underpin current market value.

Funding - total $96m:

Convertible bond: $55m five a fiveyear period amortising at 5% of initial principal/quarter, coupon 4%, both of which may be paid in cash or equity at Pantheon's option, with a 20% conversion premium. There is a downward conversion price reset mechanism with a hard floor of 65p.

Equity: $41m equity raised at 65p/share through a placing, subscription, and retail offer. Total undiluted share count post the raise of 744.4m shares.

We calculate full conversion of the convertible principal and coupon at 20% premium to the equity issue price to result in 8% dilution to the post raise share count.

Upscaled funding looks likely to add a third new well

The original minimum funding requirement for the above programme was $70m. The upscaled raise is likely to lead to an additional well on the Alkaid field that would be placed on long term test. At present that looks likely to target the upper (SMD) reservoir though the location has not yet been confirmed.

Valuation, rating, and target price

A more comprehensive discussion of value is overleaf. For now though, we make adjustments to our target price, based on total estimated targeted 2022 resources of 2.1 bnbbls, a highly risked $1/bbl unit valuation, and anticipated post raise full dilution. As a result, we increase our target price to 200p (from 170p) and given the risk profile we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.

We note the scope for the much higher market and industry valuations (discussed overleaf), and we would foresee our risked valuation shifting in that direction as successful drilling/testing milestones are met in the 2022 operational programme.

Valuation discussion

Based on our understanding of the potential resources to be evaluated in 2022, 2.1bbbls, a mixture of independently verified and company assessments, we estimate the market values those resources at $0.33/bbl.

We think that valuation reflects the market’s uncertainty about the size of the resource base and risks to commerciality. We believe that the three/four well drilling /testing programme in 2022 should help to resolve better both of those parameters.

At long term WTI $60/bbl assumption our unrisked NPV10 unit value for Alkaid Deep resources is $7.5/bbl, and all other resources is $5.3/bbl. Our overall weighted average unrisked valuation for Pantheon’s resources is $5.4/bbl.

We note the OilSearch cash acquisition of Alaskan resources in November 2017, when oil prices were a little below current levels, assigned a valuation of $3.1/bbl for contingent resources.

In short, the 2022 operational programme is designed to confirm the resource potential and derisk commerciality, and so shift market perception from the current $0.33/bbl towards the $5-7/bbl range. Success could also be expected to generate considerable industry interest in such a large scale and well-located resource base.

It is worth noting that success on Alkaid Deep, particularly with the benefit of a longer-term test in a horizontal wellbore, could confirm our valuation of $575m for the deep Alkaid reservoir alone (Fig.1), largely supporting Pantheon’s current market value.

While the upside is compelling, we recognise the risks associated with such an exploration/appraisal oriented programme. However, we believe that the range of activities and risk profile of the planned operations is sufficiently diverse that individual news items should have lower impact than they would in a much narrower and higher risk operational campaign.

We set our target price, ahead of the 2022 programme, at 200p/sh based on application of unit valuation of $1/bbl, substantially above the current market value but also considerably below the OilSearch transaction valuation metric.

We note that our risked valuation (Fig.1), which includes a good deal of subjectivity regarding resource risk profile and also the Talitha Kuparuk (not targeted in the 2022 operations), results in a risked valuation of 417p/sh and an unrisked valuation of over 1,300p/sh. That is the ultimate prize for the company.

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p.s. watching ALL webinars is highly recommended.


p.p.s.
(Repeat the above until you have completely digested as much of the information presented as you can)


Any caveats you think should apply, apply!


p.p.p.s. Aisha Tyler might award quite a few points if you noticed;

"results in a risked valuation of 417p/sh and an unrisked valuation of over 1,300p/sh"
..... and also realised this was published before the Talitha test results were published....



Any caveats you think should apply, still apply!

[sirmark] 12/2/2022 16:55

Guys as we're in such a pivotal point for the company can we keep to PANR only (honestly no offence)We have maintained a good quality informational bb at the benefit to all newbies who are just finding out about PANR and don't want to read about other stock miss-haps.Looking like Monday to get out next flow result although not so important as there's no guidance for this next formation and then it's the main events SMD and the big ThetaWest.Good luck all. May we have great success !!!

[references] 12/2/2022 11:38

Yeh, just read the story. And just a few weeks ago too! Thanks for telling me. Well. I can’t say I weep for the guy. I popped into court when the trial was on in London. Not sure why I was too stupid not to have sold GKP then. It was the rumour of a takeover that kept me too greedy. Hoping for better things here! And the management at Pantheon are a world apart in terms of people I would trust, having met these guys a couple of times in face to face presentations pre-Covid.

[ride daice] 12/2/2022 11:27

Tax. > $20M

[references] 12/2/2022 11:25

No!! I remember the annoying photos of him and wife number two on mega yachts. I’ll look it up. What did they get him for?

[rabito79] 12/2/2022 11:21

Pro, I don't think it's Contrarian888 that wrote that. How do you think it's him?

[ride daice] 12/2/2022 11:14

Did you see that Kozel got a 5 stretch ?

[references] 12/2/2022 11:06

Those of us who made and then lost a fortune on Gulf Keystone back in the day know only too well how the millstone of too much debt at the wrong time can crucify shareholders, regardless of the proven oil in the ground. Gulf went on to produce 40,000 barrels a day, but due to the enforced debt to equity swap the original shareholders enjoyed less than 95% of their original investment. The beauty of Pantheon is that it is fully funded with its own CASH, not debt, and it is in a safe and reliable jurisdiction. Exciting times.

[madd_rip] 12/2/2022 10:44

Couple of porkies I wager there

[chris0805] 12/2/2022 10:03

Wrong & wrong... time waster or shorter..

[tmmalik] 12/2/2022 09:56

Slowly building when share price below 0.50p in past years ,there was time it went even to 0.18p

[mlf51] 12/2/2022 09:30

Best you get out now if you have ANY concerns and spend your million

[pro_s2009] 12/2/2022 09:21

I think its 'best case" for next week...and for sure good news and 207p is possible.

If Theta West has 1300 feet of potential pay, then even 250p is possible next week.

[cezuan] 12/2/2022 09:14

how did you get those numbers @tmmalik?

[tmmalik] 12/2/2022 09:11

I am in panr from last 5 years ,still have above 1 million shares .no confidence issue ,only I ask for expectation .I did my best case scenario and it goes to 207p if every thing goes as expected otherwise go back to 55p.

[tmmalik] 12/2/2022 09:02

Thanks ,very helpful

[dv01] 12/2/2022 00:23

Dude- short it if you dare. You might get lucky for a nano second with a war...but just watch out, the bears are about to be found.

[pro_s2009] 11/2/2022 23:58

tmmalik read this :

.

[tmmalik] 11/2/2022 23:43

Seems all set for Monday ,what are realistic expectation in term of flow and share price .As it's already 60 percent up since 79p .

[holism] 11/2/2022 22:31

Could we be so lucky?