Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[rideacockhorse] 20/5/2022 17:36

Funny old week. As the days draw nearer to the success or failure of Alkaid #2 the buzzards are circling. As Jay says, at that point we'll know who's right and who's wrong. Red faces are guaranteed on one side or the other. Place your bets! We all seem to go round in circles on here but personally I do not know of any other company out there that offers the sort of returns Pantheon could give us. My worry has never really been about success given the number of opportunities going forward. My biggest worry has always been a bigger player buying PANR out at a piffling £2-3. That remains my primary concern. Gonna be fun when those Alkaid #2 numbers are released. I just gotta be in it to win it. Would hate to be on the side lines for that RNS!

[mlf51] 20/5/2022 17:14

Make that a Tesla and a RR.

[probabilityofsuccess] 20/5/2022 17:00

I’d be happy with a £500Bn market cap.

[mlf51] 20/5/2022 16:46

Great that JC reacted ( in a very diplomatic way ) to the latest misinformation from PH. I think that the larger holders here should repay him when the sale happens and buy him a Tesla.

[dhb368] 20/5/2022 15:57

Proactive video with JC



JC mentioned that the SMD was flowing 400-500 BPD of fluid, mainly frac fluid, before the blockage. Have these numbers been shared before? Did the initial results webinar suggest a flow rate that high?

[rafthorney] 20/5/2022 12:29

I loved the post above via scot126,i,m beginning to think(hope) that 1200 barrels a day may be very conservative.

[chris0805] 20/5/2022 11:21

They did.. no sign as yet though

[adxwasere] 20/5/2022 11:17

Didn't WHI say they were going to review after the update on the 16th , Hopefully something soon , does anyone have an ideas on this?
Cheers
Adz

[arcadian] 20/5/2022 10:52

HFC

Well written and a good read.

It`s just possiblee that you meant "mediaeval" but I would have thought that mediaevil might have been more in keeping with the topic.

[chris0805] 20/5/2022 10:41

BUY rating. Missed off the end of my previous post.

[chris0805] 20/5/2022 10:40

Extract of Canaccord Genuity note 25 April:Valuation, target price and ratingAssessing a market value remains challenging ahead of three key components. 1) Demonstration of commerciality - we expect the planned horizontal drilling and long term testing at Alkaid this summer to provide key input data to this; 2) better understanding of the likely number of wells, infrastructure requirements and capital/operating costs associated with such a potentially very large development in Alaska; 3) independent assessment of the recoverable resources.That said, the drilling and testing results at Talitha and Theta West have been very encouraging, matching or bettering company hopes in these two vertical wells some 10 miles apart at each end of a very large resource base. The post-winter 2022 operational programme evaluation and analysis has confirmed a notably positive direction of travel for Pantheon's oil resources, and we believe that should strengthen the company's hand in any future wider industry or partner discussions. We raise our target price to 280p (from 250p) to reflect the positive outcome of the winter 2022 operational programme and the company's improving confidence in the resource, and we maintain our SPECULATIVE

[chris0805] 20/5/2022 10:36

Morning Forwood,Extract of WHI note of 25 April.. Pre-Drill Valuation: Our pre-drill valuation of 184p will be due a significant uplift to reflect the i) derisking provided by the winter 21/22 testing/drilling program and ii) the resource upgrade announced today iii) strengthened oil prices. We believe that the news related the Lower Basin Floor Fan will have the most incidence on our valuation. For reference, we have provided the basis of our pre-drill valuation in Table 1.

[hiddendepths] 20/5/2022 10:22

Today is Day 3 of the sell note and if history is any guide the residual selling will be over by close of play. So next week should be much smoother. That's not to say that the price will return to its pre-note level in a rush.

But it's history. Forget it - it happened and it's gone.

[forwood] 20/5/2022 10:05

Hfc, thanks for that erudite response. It's good to have so many knowledgeable subscribers here. Overlooking a lovely lake in Sardinia with a clear blue sky, and just my phone for research, can anyone recall the status of the WHI and Cannacord valuations? And I certainly agree with the suggestion that our brokers get on the case here!

[responsible investor] 20/5/2022 09:42

(i) PANR should speak to Peel Hunt and put them straight.(ii) good opportunity for WHI to produce an update based upon the disclosures in the presentation last week and (iii) as for Canaccord.........!

[brian boru] 20/5/2022 09:05

copied from LSE;

The Pantheon Resources (LON:PANR) share price is tanking! I’m buying more
With a large amount of oil in place, does the recent sharp fall in the PANR share price present an attractive buying opportunity?


Andrew Woods❯
Published 19 May, 12:18 pm BST
PANR

Pantheon Resources (LSE:PANR) is an oil exploration firm. Listed on the AIM 100 index, the company operates in Alaska’s North Slope area. Its primary assets are Alkaid, measuring nearly 23,000 acres, and Talitha, which is about 44,000 acres. Since yesterday, the PANR share price is down 20% and currently trades at 105p. What’s the reason for this fall? And should I add to my current holding on this dip?

May 19, 2022

Why did the PANR share price fall?

Investment firm Peel Hunt initiated coverage of the business yesterday and immediately placed a ‘sell’ rating on the stock.


What’s more, it issued a price target of 50p. This is far below the current PANR share price and may be a reason for the large fall today and yesterday.

In the coverage, it cited recent flow rates and other, more historical factors. This includes the decision by a large oil firm to farm-in, that is to enter an agreement, with competitor 88 Energy in 2017, as opposed to Pantheon.

It’s worth noting that 88 Energy has acreage and operations right next to Pantheon, in Alaska.

In terms of financial results, Pantheon did report widening losses of $4.4m for the six months to 31 December. However, its cash position has improved massively to $92.7m, up from $29.8m one year earlier.

I don’t think these financial results as a reason for the recent price fall.

Large oil discoveries and near-term production

When investing in oil exploration companies, however, I like to look beyond financial results and analyse the extent of their discoveries. Recently, investment bank Canaccord Genuity raised its target price to 280p.

This followed the announcement by Pantheon that it may have 23.5bn barrels of oil in place. Even with a conservative estimate of 10% recoverability rates, this potentially amounts to well over 2bn barrels of oil for production.

With this production set to commence in October, revenue from these discoveries may come sooner rather than later.

In addition, the firm had a successful winter drilling programme at its Talitha and Theta West wells, although bad weather halted operations on a few occasions.

Summer drilling programme

The company announced this week that it had concluded a rig contract to drill at the Alkaid #2 well. Spudding, the initial drilling, will commence in July.

Through complex analysis, the business believes that the oil zone in this well is “substantially thicker” than previously thought.

It’s possible that this well could have 2.6bn barrels of oil in place. It’s estimated that about 400m barrels could be recoverable. If recovered, this may be very good news for the PANR share price, as more oil enters into production.

It should be noted, however, that the nature of exploration can mean that recovery rates may be lower than estimated.

Overall, this correction to the PANR share price may seem like a big move down in the short term. However, given the substantial amounts of oil that may be in place, I think the company could soon flourish as oil production begins later in the year. I see this recent price movement as a good opportunity to add to my portfolio and I will be purchasing more shares soon.

[westx] 20/5/2022 08:52

Reading up on North Slope fields re: Kuparuk oil wet issue I ran across this little gem discussing low salinity waterflood EOR applications in Alaskan reservoirs. A concept I had never researched. Probably a bit nerdy for most but has interesting discussion of reservoir clay content which I believe will become significant as development proceeds. https://esalinity.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/SPE_180370_Thyne_final2.pdf

[hfc123] 20/5/2022 07:53

@ forwood - I agree with your first part, and I place much weight on your use of the word "should". I agree that full-fat research should indeed be held to a high standard of factual accuracy and opinion backed by strong evidence (for those interested, the regulatory test around the definition of research includes the use of the word "substantive" in amongst a cluster of other items, eg, including a recommendation, valuation set etc etc.) However, the Marketing Communication tag is the clue here - this is "research light" or - as you hint - what might have been called a 'desk note' in the old days. The post MiFID II regs don't require such comm to be in any way substantive or indeed to have any hard work behind their valuation pegs. You or I could write Marketing Communication twice before tackling our kedgeree for breakfast if we so chose. These notes specifically do not require the full rigour and depth of work that is required for output defined as "Research". In this case, we can see this to be true - bloke spots a consensus long, decides to take the other side of the trade to get his market makers into the name, sketches out a couple of ill-thought through paras and bosh - out it goes. See below re there being no regs to stop someone who is utterly determined to make an absolute idiot of themselves in public. I don't see any conspiracy here. I see someone trying to get a bit of flow in the name into their trading desk. But no sensible investor is going to make their decision on such provably rubbish output, fear not. Yet, as you point out, on a retail-held name, and with thin insto coverage, even these notes "have tangible, sometimes dramatic impact on company valuations". Indeed, but they wash out all the quicker for being so poorly thought through. Keep calm and carry on, y'all.

[forwood] 20/5/2022 07:31

Broker notes are not mere points of view. They have tangible, sometimes dramatic impact on company valuations and as such should be held to a high standard of factual accuracy and opinion backed by strong evidence.

[references] 19/5/2022 22:03

Peel Hunt are a respectable house. You, and I, may disagree with their analysis but let’s not get all JFK and grassy knoll about this. It’s another point of view, get over it. Personally speaking, I’m long.

[scot126] 19/5/2022 20:41

Dear Peel Hunt - your error-ridden Sell note has pretty much been dismantled within 48 hours.



Perhaps not "checkmate", but certainly "check".

[zeusfurla] 19/5/2022 20:37

scot126 and Spangle93 Well-reminded. I'd forgotten about fee-paying members - you are right. Keep on filter then seems the best option.

[spangle93] 19/5/2022 20:28

zeusfeula - I don't believe moderators have the ability to "ban" a premium or "blue" poster from a thread on ADVFN?

[scot126] 19/5/2022 20:27

Hi zeusfurla - trouble is, Prolapse is a fee-paying member of ADVFN so Darcon is unable to ban him. Pity.