Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[westx] 08/4/2022 08:02

We could offer them some dry hole money if they drill us an offset :)

[scot126] 08/4/2022 08:00

Dear All - please find below some content I posted on another forum. For the moderators and Twitterati - please don't allow any claims of outrageous fortune by the self-styled US OTC 88E Army go unchallenged this time around. They're now playing on PANR's data turf and we hold all the cards.


"The overlap is located in the eastern blocks of Project Icewine.

It's the ANN/RNS I expected, for now. A holding pattern until PANR's webinar on 26/4/22 at 5.30pm, UK time. There'll be no "new news" before that date from 88E IMHO. Why would they go out on a limb when the best data they have is 2D seismic plus logs (where all these horizons were either missed or discarded at Icewine 1 + Icewine 2) v's PANR's 3D seismic (an $80m investment) and the multiple logs, flow tests and VAS data which have been collected from multiple wells?

I totally accept 88E's whole "piggy-backing" off PANR's data - that's exactly what I would say and do too. The trouble is that the shared asset is what it is. You can't reach down 8000 ft below the surface and tip the axis of the geology so all the extractable oil and sand characteristics move southwards on to 88E leases. The horizons are where they are, at the depths where they are, in the phases of the hydrocarbon spectrum they are and contained within the sands they are. I suggest this forum does some reading around these subjects and don't get sand-bagged again by gold-plated words and "indications" v's cool, hard empirical data.

Regular readers will know my views on the proportion of Alkaid + Talitha + Icewine East + Theta West shared by 88E and PANR. In my model I use a ratio by value of 90:10, PANR:88E. I suspect it'll end up being closer to 95:5 in the final analysis but I'm happy enough to use 90:10 for now.

I ask again.....why buy a seat in the gods when a seat in the front row of the stalls is the same price?"

PS Thanks for the link, WesTx.

[westx] 08/4/2022 07:59

Accidentally ran across it. I was reading well reports on Alkaid 1 as I remembered they had lost returns toward bottom of hole and wondering if that would be an issue on upcoming horizontal.

[senttothegallows] 08/4/2022 07:32

Panr webinar for 88e shareholders will be like peering through the window watching neighbours telly imho

[chris0805] 08/4/2022 07:32

Great spot WesTx :-)

[westx] 08/4/2022 07:31

Alkaid 2&3 Unit Plan of Operations Application https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/8DAAA347BFFC487BAA08C87677611FF8/2022-04-07_Unit%20Plan%20of%20Operations%20Application.pdf

[officerdigby] 08/4/2022 07:26

Maybe they should tell their share holders to listen to the webinar.


Maybe after their bod listen to the webinar they could issue a PANR BUY note with a target price.. In their next RNS.

[mojad5] 08/4/2022 07:15

88e singing Pantheon praises in their RNS this morning. It could almost be a Pantheon RNS !

[btgman] 07/4/2022 23:27

Everyone is entitled to their view as to where we are and what the current season has resulted in. I am 100% sure the webinar will fully reveal those details.

I have over a long period of time had a valuation matrix for Pantheon which has been invaluable and broker notes have tended to track this 6 to 12 months later.

Based on what we have seen so far do I think the probability of success has increased this season yes certainly and we have definitely added SFS. So Pre updates I have reviewed said matrix and increased probability of success to 40% on all zones and left Kuparuk at 10%. This leads to a valuation of £3.43 per share. Part of the difference is all zones are considered and valued rather than just the odd zone here and there. For me all zones are very much in play.

I acknowledge that the above does not take account of any upgrades and likely we will see higher recovery rates in the fullness of time.

As a marker I am OK with this for now and it certainly highlights my view how undervalued we really are. Unfortunately industry experts will similarly know this which potentially leaves us vulnerable which several others are noting.

The size and scale of this on shore proximity to pipeline and all year round drilling relatively low drill costs quick pay back you cannot get this anywhere.

Exciting times any whiff of a bid and this well and truly rockets.

AIMHO
GLA
BTG

[pannikin] 07/4/2022 21:22

They might, probably will, be able to extrapolate numbers from Theta West but johnswan and HD cannot be the only ones disappointed that we do not actually have headline grabbing numbers from TW LBFF and Talitha SMD (for the second season)I am still happy to hold, and am very overweight, but can't help feeling that this year's problems will cost me some money if/when a jv is agreed.

[ringsing1] 07/4/2022 20:34

@hiddendepths “was disappointing because the company did not get the chance to DEMONSTRATE commerciality with hard cold numbers.” I am genuinely not sure if this is correct. They planned to do 3 very small fractures, they did, and they appeared very happy with what they found. As they by now know the profile of the entire geology at the well site (and same formation at the Talitha well site), I’d be super-surprised if they cannot (rather precisely) extrapolate what they have found, into a level of certainty re commerciality.

[chessman2] 07/4/2022 18:52

I think the really interesting point is that the share price has strengthened during the past few days.

Could a predator be buying?

In the meantime I've also top sliced a few more although PANR remains a large holding for me.

[bobbiedazzler] 07/4/2022 18:37

The real difference with Texas is that Pantheon are now the operator, whereas in Texas they were passive partners to Vision as operator. Unfortunately Vision were misnamed...

[hiddendepths] 07/4/2022 17:52

My position is different to johnswan's but unlike many posters, it seems, I respect his judgment and his right to hold and express his view.

I still maintain that the winter's drilling was disappointing because the company did not get the chance to DEMONSTRATE commerciality with hard cold numbers. So it's all a question of the extent to which one trusts the company's analysis of the undoubtedly positive results they did get.

I don't think it's surprising that some are a bit sceptical, especially in view of the unfortunate similarity with the Texan situation after several wells had been drilled. There, the sceptics were completely right and the company's analysis, for all their use of highly rated experts, was totally wrong.

Once bitten.... But maybe, for once, it really is different this time! If it is, there's a great deal of upside which dwarfs the potential downside, which is limited to 100%! The risk/reward balance strongly favours holding a position IMHO but if people are looking at the stock making up a massive proportion of their portfolio after its multibagging from the lows, I can understand very well why the more risk averse would take some money off the table at this point.

[johnswan193] 07/4/2022 17:51

Rabito, maybe my decision to derisk is partly based off my inexperience in not fully understanding why we should not compare BFF Talitha reported rate to TW, but I simply couldn't get comfortable with what I was rightly or wrongly expecting to be a much improved result than reported at TW, even allowing for what they said about not yet achieving optimum rates due to the weather event.

That coupled with SMD issue and pushed out timeframes to obtain the information I was hoping we'd get in this drill season.

Webinar may fill the gaps but doubtful I'll be increasing my exposure back to previous level. Might convince me not to sell more though.

I'm fully ok with people who have not been at all thrown by progress/results to date, many of those will be a lot more capable than me of being able to evaluate what has been made public thus far, hence why I will not be trying to tell anybody else what they should do.

[rabito79] 07/4/2022 17:38

Johnswan for clarity we don't know what the comparative flow rates for Talitha and Theta West are, we only know the oil rates.

[probabilityofsuccess] 07/4/2022 16:47

You were talking about confirmation bias hiddendepths? Next post prime example.

….and I think you may be conflating optimism bias with confirmation bias.

[johnswan193] 07/4/2022 16:05

Have to say, I agree with what Jonny has said. I have also offloaded a significant amount of my position, however Jonny says it is still his largest position - it is no longer my largest position. I will probably derisk further after the webinar as I am hoping it will give the share price another boost.

I have said before - I have been disappointed with the drill season. Yes it could have been a lot worse but the flow rates at TW failed to improve on Talitha and with SMD the blockage adds further risk for me.

All things considered, my average cost was in the 30s so I cashed in some gains at 120p-130p. I have slept much better since doing that. Not upset that the share price is now higher than that because I'm still happy to see my remaining position value increasing.

I am not at all saying that this is a bad investment or that I don't think management will deliver what everybody here is hoping for. I have done very well here, but my position has got really big relative to other individual positions I hold, so made total sense to derisk at this stage, and with other interesting investment opportunities available.

If either TW or SMD had come back definitively commercial, or something a lot more convincing than what we've seen then perhaps I'd hold on longer (despite the share price and relative position size becoming even larger if that happened) because at least there would be something real to build on and to fall back on if other areas fail, but at the moment I just don't see that, the entire portfolio of assets remains all very much about potential and one big definitive failure - if it happens - will cast doubt on everything else and the share price would suffer severely.

Hoping those who hold until the end are rewarded well for that. I certainly won't have any regrets and will be happy with whatever gains I can get on my reduced position from here.

[hiddendepths] 07/4/2022 16:00

Just watch your step as you come across posts from people who show consistent negativity.

I agree! Also -

Just watch your step as you come across posts from people who show consistent positivity.

They're equally misleading, not that that's a popular view among the many who just want confirmation bias because it makes them feel good! Yet occasionally the gainsayers add more value than any number of the utterly convinced as they come up with genuine reasons to adopt a more cautious approach.

It's interesting how the majority get really angry with those who have negative or more balanced views. As a former analyst I always favoured an objective approach - and still do because it leads to better investment decisions and I'm making a living from my investments.

[sirmark] 07/4/2022 15:17

Same lol but who cares when it's £3.50 :) Here's one for you I have some stock in negative territory even at £1.43 lol

[rafthorney] 07/4/2022 13:52

Whenever i buy, the price drops after .Ok only about 1p but every little helps!

[forwood] 07/4/2022 13:50

that's 'manna' HG!

The hourly chart is a thing of beauty here. See how it continues up, retraces a bit, then continues up. It could continue like this for a while. Not sure it will, but the daily chart is very unstressed. At some stage, I expect there'll be a blow off to the upside and then a larger fall (this is not a chart prediction, just an observation about what may happen!).