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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pan African Resources Plc | PAF | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | 2.56% | 24.00 | 08:13:04 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24.00 | 24.00 | 24.00 | 23.40 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| MINING |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 17/4/2024 21:11 by stonedyou Gold Stocks: Good Times Are HereApril 17, 2024 Stewart Thomson Graceland Updates 1 Mainstream analysts are becoming more excited about gold… even as it becomes technically overbought on the daily and weekly price charts. 2 Please click here now. Most Wall Street analysts failed to project the current rally. Are they wrong again now, or is gold set to keep rallying in its overbought state? 3 Please click here now. Click to enlarge this spectacular weekly gold price chart. 4 Both RSI and Stochastics are clearly overbought… 5 But if the fundamentals are strong gold can continue to rally for weeks, months, or even years while staying technically overbought. 6 On that note, please click here now and also here. Two of the big drivers for gold right now are the citizens of China and the 2021-2025 global war cycle. 7 While total GDP is solid, Chinese retail sales are soft, the stock market and real estate are weak, so citizens there are focused on gold and silver for safety and growth. 8 While Israeli and Iranian warmongers are unlikely to get out of control, there’s enough animosity and action between them to keep Western gold market analysts in a bullish stance. 9 The US government’s failed war in Ukraine could become a bigger quagmire if Congress borrows more fiat and uses it to prolong its proxy fight against the Russian government. 10 Gold would likely then begin a charge towards $3000. Please click here now. Click to enlarge. The dollar is collapsing against ultimate money gold… and another leg down is at least as likely as a technical bounce. 11 On past meltdowns, the dollar hasn’t shown any technical rally after the initial collapse; it keeps falling into the abyss for months… and sometimes for years! 12 Short-term tactics? Please click here now. Click to enlarge. There are weak H&S tops appearing on the gold ETF hourly price charts, but unless the necklines break ($2320 for gold itself), gold, silver, and the miners likely continue their “upside rampage”. 13 While a pullback of size looks increasingly unlikely, if it does happen, investors can do some aggressive buying in the $2200-$2050 zone. 14 Western analysts tend to focus on silly price targets (that are mostly wrong) while 3 billion Eastern citizens are focused on getting more gold. The bottom line: 15 Western gold bugs should ignore the analysts, focus on the actions of their Eastern brethren, and compete with them to get as much gold on sale as they can! 16 A daily focus on the big picture is critical for investors as inflation, recession, the 2021-2025 war cycle, a wildly overvalued stock market, debt ceiling horror, and empire transition dominate the investing landscape. 17 Please click here now. Click to enlarge. There’s no question that this long-term silver chart is one of the most spectacular charts on the planet. 18 Note the “LOI” (line of importance). It’s drawn a bit differently than the classic inverse H&S neckline… 19 But it is even more important than the neckline as it ushered in the thunderous breakout and rally from what is one of the largest base patterns in the history of markets! 19 Rather projecting price targets for “big fiat profits”, this beautiful chart beckons silver bugs to focus on the “GMS” (Get More Silver!) theme that is embraced with gusto by citizens of China and India. 20 What about the miners? Well, please click here now. Click to enlarge this interesting GDX daily chart. Note the double-bottom action in February-March in 2023 and the same action in 2024. 21 The technical action is similar, but the fundamental drivers have changed; in 2023 analysts assumed that rate hikes from the Fed would slay the US inflation dragon. 22 Now, recent reports (including the “supercoreR 23 Rather than swooning into October like they did in 2023, gold and silver mining stocks are more likely to have little more than a pullback that forms a right shoulder of a big inverse H&S pattern, followed by a surge to $40-$45, basis GDX. 24 Western money managers are becoming frustrated with their stock market, the crypto ETF-themed rally has fizzed, and they are impressed with action of the miners. The bottom line: Good gold stock times are here, and a lot more may be near! Thanks! Cheers ST |
Posted at 09/4/2024 10:17 by stonedyou GoldSeek Radio Nugget - Peter Kendall: Gold Has Room to Run.Chris Waltzek GoldSeek Radio Peter Kendall returns with gold blasting through $2,325 this week, yet another record high! we review the charts of key markets in real-time. He co-edits Elliott Wave International’ - Elliott Wave analysis on the gold sector suggests gold price just started the most significant 3rd wave. December 1st [2023]...We walked through the pace is about gold was in [Steven Hochberg's] forecast. And as I look at your [live gold] chart, I can see the waves as they've played out and as he suggested they would. We talked a lot about October and exactly what Steve had said in the short-term update in October...and then by December, you know that we were fairly certain that that low was in place and that we would continue to new highs which happened pretty soon. After you know that this the first set of new all-time highs that took place in. I guess it was still December, it might have been January but there we were... we got it and then we pulled back; that's wave two that pulled back into earlier this year and now we're in a third wave up, which is exactly what Steve was calling for and it's playing out very nicely, as you mentioned. - We review the US equities chart - our guest expects a consolidation. - With the epic GPU maker, NVIDIA higher by 10x in about one year, is the price nearing a key zenith and if so what steps can investors take to shield their portfolios? - Are nascent money managers blissfully unaware of the risks associated with price excesses? - How closely does the global financial asset bubble resemble the key financial manias of the past? - Further Elliott Wave analysis suggests $3,000+ in the coming years. - The COT data suggests the herd may once again be wrong, hinting at further gold gains for contrarian-minded investors. Check out EWI Promotion for Goldseek Listeners. |
Posted at 04/4/2024 10:35 by stonedyou Einhorn Bets Big on Gold Amid Inflation, Eyes Value Stocks.Einhorn bets big on gold amid inflation concerns, predicts fewer than three Fed rate cuts this year. Key Takeaway David Einhorn warns inflation may be reaccelerating, doubting the Federal Reserve will cut rates more than twice this year, if at all. Einhorn's Greenlight Capital significantly increases its gold holdings, including $74 million in SPDR Gold Trust and physical bars, as a hedge against fiscal policies. Despite market concerns, Einhorn sees value in stocks like Solvay after its spinoff into Syensqo, highlighting opportunities in undervalued companies. Inflation Concerns Persist David Einhorn, the hedge fund manager of Greenlight Capital, expressed concerns over persistent U.S. inflation, suggesting that bringing inflation down might be more challenging than investors anticipate. Despite expectations, Einhorn predicts "fewer than three" interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with a possibility of none occurring. This perspective comes in light of recent U.S. data indicating a core personal consumption expenditures price index rise of 2.8% in February, surpassing the Fed's 2% inflation target. Einhorn's stance on inflation reaccelerating is supported by various indicators, highlighting the complexities facing the U.S. monetary policy. Gold as a Defensive Play Amidst inflation concerns and potential market downturns, Einhorn is increasing his investments in gold, viewing it as a hedge against loose monetary and fiscal policies. Greenlight Capital's significant position in gold, including physical bars and $74 million in the SPDR Gold Trust fund, underscores Einhorn's strategy to mitigate risks associated with fiscal deficits and policy challenges. This move reflects a broader trend among investors seeking safe-haven assets in uncertain economic times. Value Investing Opportunities Despite the overarching concerns, Einhorn identifies emerging opportunities in value stocks, particularly in companies undergoing spinoffs. He cites Solvay, a Belgium-based chemicals and plastics company, as a prime example, having picked up shares following its spinoff into Syensqo. Einhorn's investment in Solvay, despite its significant share price decline, illustrates his belief in the market's mispricing of value stocks. This approach is part of Einhorn's broader critique of the current market dynamics, where he sees a lack of investment in identifying undervalued companies. Einhorn's Strategic Insight Einhorn's investment philosophy focuses on identifying undervalued companies with strong growth potential, a strategy that has historically yielded significant returns for Greenlight Capital. His interest in Solvay aligns with this philosophy, emphasizing the company's market leadership and stable, high-margin businesses. Despite Greenlight Capital's slight underperformance compared to the S&P 500 last year, Einhorn's strategic moves, including his investment in Solvay and his defensive play in gold, highlight his adeptness at navigating market complexities and identifying potential growth opportunities. Street Views David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital (Neutral on the market and inflation): "I think inflation is reaccelerating. I think there’s a lot of indication of that... fewer than three interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will take place this year — and that there’s a chance that no cuts actually take place." [1] Key Fed inflation gauge rose 2.8% annually in February, as expected [2] Greenlight’s David Einhorn unveils chemicals company Solvay as top investment idea [4] David Einhorn thinks inflation is reaccelerating and has made gold a very large position Supernews Access to live, personalized market intelligence and Wall Street insight for free. Sign up now. |
Posted at 04/4/2024 08:23 by stonedyou Western Investors Bank Record Profits on GoldTuesday, 4/02/2024 09:30 New record prices as China buys gold, Western investors sell... "China's relentless central-bank demand, drove the price of gold up to new record highs in all major currencies" WESTERN INVESTORS just banked record profits from gold, selling more than twice the quantity that they bought as a group in March using world-leading marketplace BullionVault, as speculative betting by hedge funds, plus China's relentless central-bank demand, drove the price of gold up to new record highs in all major currencies. But record-heavy selling by a record number of customers still left client holdings at BullionVault worth fresh record high above $3.2 billion (£2.5bn, €3.0bn). "Previous peaks in the number of people selling gold also came as bullion prices jumped," says BullionVault director of research Adrian Ash. "But they all coincided with moments of acute political or financial stress, spurring stronger investor demand. "In contrast, gold's new all-time highs have come without any external trigger. That speaks to the underlying strength of this uptrend, with relentless demand for physical bullion from emerging-market nations led by China more than offsetting the record-heavy profit taking by Western investors." The price of gold jumped by 8.1% last month – its fastest gain in a year – to finish at a new record of $2214 per Troy ounce (+8.5% to £1752, +8.7% to €2050) after setting a fresh all-time high on 9 of the global wholesale market's 20 trading days across March. In response, the number of private investors buying gold on BullionVault – almost 9-in-10 of whose users live in Western Europe or North America – slipped 3.4% to the fewest since December. The number of sellers in contrast rose 95.1% to beat the number of sellers in March 2023 (the 'mini crisis' in US regional banking), August 2011 (US debt downgrade, Euro debt crisis, English riots), March 2022 (Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine) and June 2016 (the UK's Brexit referendum shock). Together, that took the Gold Investor Index – a unique measure of trading decisions among the world's largest single pool of private investors in physical bullion – down to a new series low of 47.5, down 4.0 points from February with its steepest drop since July 2016. Tracking gold investor actions since October 2009, the index would read 50.0 if the number of buyers exactly equalled the number of sellers across the month. It reached 65.9 as the Covid Crisis took hold in March 2020, and it set a series high of 71.7 when gold prices hit their global-financial-cri The Gold Investor Index has recorded more gold sellers than buyers only twice before (48.8 in Feb 2010, 49.1 in June 2019). |
Posted at 02/4/2024 10:42 by stonedyou Western Investors Bank Record Profits on GoldTuesday, 4/02/2024 09:30 "With the People's Bank of China seemingly happy to buy gold at any price." WESTERN INVESTORS just banked record profits from gold, selling more than twice the quantity that they bought as a group in March using world-leading marketplace BullionVault, as speculative betting by hedge funds, plus China's relentless central-bank demand, drove the price of gold up to new record highs in all major currencies. But record-heavy selling by a record number of customers still left client holdings at BullionVault worth fresh record high above $3.2 billion (£2.5bn, €3.0bn). "Previous peaks in the number of people selling gold also came as bullion prices jumped," says BullionVault director of research Adrian Ash. "But they all coincided with moments of acute political or financial stress, spurring stronger investor demand. "In contrast, gold's new all-time highs have come without any external trigger. That speaks to the underlying strength of this uptrend, with relentless demand for physical bullion from emerging-market nations led by China more than offsetting the record-heavy profit taking by Western investors." The price of gold jumped by 8.1% last month – its fastest gain in a year – to finish at a new record of $2214 per Troy ounce (+8.5% to £1752, +8.7% to €2050) after setting a fresh all-time high on 9 of the global wholesale market's 20 trading days across March. In response, the number of private investors buying gold on BullionVault – almost 9-in-10 of whose users live in Western Europe or North America – slipped 3.4% to the fewest since December. The number of sellers in contrast rose 95.1% to beat the number of sellers in March 2023 (the 'mini crisis' in US regional banking), August 2011 (US debt downgrade, Euro debt crisis, English riots), March 2022 (Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine) and June 2016 (the UK's Brexit referendum shock). Together, that took the Gold Investor Index – a unique measure of trading decisions among the world's largest single pool of private investors in physical bullion – down to a new series low of 47.5, down 4.0 points from February with its steepest drop since July 2016. Tracking gold investor actions since October 2009, the index would read 50.0 if the number of buyers exactly equalled the number of sellers across the month. It reached 65.9 as the Covid Crisis took hold in March 2020, and it set a series high of 71.7 when gold prices hit their global-financial-cri The Gold Investor Index has recorded more gold sellers than buyers only twice before (48.8 in Feb 2010, 49.1 in June 2019). By weight, total demand to buy gold on BullionVault – now open 24/7 since April 2005 – rose 4.5% in March from the previous 12-month average to reach 0.7 tonnes. But selling more than doubled, rising 100.3% to total more than 1.6 tonnes. Net-net, that saw private investors liquidate 992 kilograms of gold – 28.0% more than the previous record outflow of June 2019 – worth a record $68.8 million (£54.1m, €63.3m). That took investor gold holdings at BullionVault down to 45.5 tonnes, the smallest since 2020 and down by 5.5% from the record high holdings of last August. By value, however, those investor holdings have risen 7.7% in Dollar terms over the past 7 months to finish March at a record $3.2 billion (+8.1% in GBP to £2.5bn, +8.3% in Euros to €3.0bn). "With central banks led by China paying record-high prices for gold, Western investors are increasingly happy to sell, taking profit at the highest prices in history. But this is rebalancing, not a rush for the exits, because their remaining holdings have also risen in value to new record highs, and gold's appeal as a form of investment insurance is undimmed, ready for whatever political or financial crises 2024's highly uncertain outlook could bring." Like gold, silver jumped in price last month, rising 9.8% to its highest monthly close in four at $24.54 per Troy ounce (+10.2% to £19.46, +10.3% to 22.76). That saw the number of silver sellers on BullionVault double in March from the month before, up 108.7% to the most since February 2021, when the #silversqueeze ramp on social media sent silver prices towards an 8-year high 1 cent shy of $30. Back then, the number of silver buyers across the month was 4.7 times larger than March 2024, putting the Silver Investor Index at 61.0, its 8th highest reading since the series began at New Year 2012. But last month the index sank to a new all-time low, down 5.1 points to 45.0 and signalling more sellers than buyers for the 4th time in the past 12 months. By weight, silver selling outran buying by a record 29.8 tonnes, taking the total stock of silver bullion still held down 2.4% to 1,199.8 tonnes, the lowest since April 2021 and 5.3% smaller from the record high of October 2022. By value, in contrast, BullionVault users' silver holdings have grown by 11.8% to $878 million (+11.0% in GBP to £750m, +11.8% in Euros to €878m). "Gold's sudden jump to new all-time highs leaves the price looking stretched short term," says Ash, "and the market may struggle to absorb the huge quantity of bullion coming back from Western investors, especially as Asia's big consumer nations head towards the seasonal summer lull in household demand. "While Asia's big gold buying markets can be very price-sensitive short term, consumers have repeatedly grown accustomed to higher gold prices over time. Short of peace and trust breaking out between the West and 'the rest', demand from emerging-market central banks looks set to continue, with the People's Bank of China seemingly happy to buy gold at any price." |
Posted at 25/3/2024 17:04 by stonedyou Crypto 'supervillain' who hoped to be reincarnated as a goddess and become a queen goes on the run after '£3billion bitcoin swindle'.Zhimin Qian, 45, allegedly scammed more than 128,000 people in China. A crypto 'supervillain' who hoped to be reincarnated as a goddess and become a queen has gone on the run after an alleged bitcoin swindle. Zhimin Qian, 45, allegedly scammed more than 128,000 people in China out of a total £5billion in bitcoin - £3billion of which were seized by UK police. She wanted to use the money to build Europe's biggest Buddhist temple in Liberland, an unrecognised micro-state on the Danube. Qian hoped the unofficial country would then make her Queen and dreamt that the Dalai Lama would declare her to be a reincarnated goddess, the Financial Times reports. But her dreams came crashing down when authorities discovered her alleged bitcoin swindle. Qian has been on the run since and is subject to an Interpol red notice. Her 'carer and assistant', Jian Wen, was convicted in a money-laundering trial that concluded in London last week, during which Wen's lawyer Mark Harries KC called Qian an 'expert criminal supervillain' and 'master of deception'. Mr Harries told Southwark Crown Court that Qian's 'spectre has haunted this trial from start to finish'. Fugitive Qian, who was referred to in court under her stolen alias Yadi Zhang, fronted a Chinese company selling investment products that promised huge returns of up to 300 per cent and claimed to be bitcoin mining, according to court documents. Qian - who fled Britain in 2020 and whose whereabouts are still unknown - allegedly used crypto exchange site Huobi to convert investor money into billions of pounds worth of bitcoin. Wen allegedly helped hide the source of the money allegedly stolen from Chinese investors between 2014 and 2017, but she was not alleged to have been involved in the underlying fraud, which prosecutors said was masterminded by Qian, who was known to Wen as Yadi Zhang. Prosecutor Gillian Jones said at the start of the trial that Qian had arrived in Britain on a false St. Kitts and Nevis passport in 2017, shortly after Chinese authorities began to investigate the fraud. |
Posted at 25/3/2024 16:08 by stonedyou Is it a golden era for gold?Executive summary The price of gold is often driven by a complex interplay of factors, including the U.S. dollar exchange rate, real yields, supply/demand dynamics and sentiment. In recent years gold has exhibited a tendency to react to real yields in an asymmetric manner, supported by strong central bank purchases. We are constructive on gold given peaking real yields, elevated geopolitical uncertainties, robust central bank demand, and strong retail jewelry demand. For long term investors, gold merits a position in a diversified portfolio, potentially serving as short-term protection against risk events, a reliable longer-term store of value, and most importantly as a portfolio risk diversifier. Gold has been a sought-after commodity for centuries, and a popular component in investment portfolios in modern times. The metal has historically delivered attractive long-term returns, appreciating ~8% on an annual basis over the past 20 years. That said, its price has exhibited significant volatility – with prices tumbling around 40% from 2011 to 2015, before it fully recovered in 2020. At the time of writing, the metal is making new all-time highs, breaking $2,180/oz on Mar 11, 2024. The price of gold is influenced by a complex interplay of macro factors as well as supply/demand dynamics. Understanding its unique characteristics and benefits is crucial for investors who look to establish portfolios that endure through cycles. This article aims to identify and analyze the key drivers of gold prices, how they evolved in recent years, and how an appropriately sized gold investment can add value to a portfolio from an asset allocation perspective. What drives gold prices? 1. The level of the U.S. dollar Historically, it would be fair to say that the value of the U.S. dollar is often negatively correlated with gold prices, as the metal is priced in dollars. When the USD weakens, gold becomes relatively cheaper for holders of other currencies, leading to increased demand. And the opposite is often true, with gold weakening as the dollar strengthens. However, there can be extended periods when this relationship breaks down. In 2012-13, for example, gold lost -18% of its value when the USD was fairly stable – rising less than 1%. Looking ahead, we think the dollar environment should be relatively supportive for gold prices. After a significant rally in 2022 and a flattish 2023, the dollar is currently trading 10-15% higher than its fair value, implied by interest rate differentials and its own long-term average. Over the medium term, we think the dollar will likely revert to mean, and its overvaluation should be ultimately unwound. This process could take some time, as the dollar could be supported over the near term by cyclical growth outperformance in the U.S. relative to other major economies. That said, further strength from current levels should be limited. We expect U.S. economic growth and interest rates to gradually “catch down” to the rest of the world as the labor market wage increases cool down and the Federal reserve begins cutting rates, likely starting in the 2H. U.S. DOLLAR STILL SCREENS ~10% OVERVALUED AGAINST INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS |
Posted at 15/12/2023 12:20 by stonedyou Bullish on Bullion: China Will Drive The Gold Price in 2024COMMENT: 'Given ongoing geopolitical fragmentation, we now expect institutional purchases to remain elevated'Geopolitical tensions spurred a major gold rebound in October, widening the gap between real yields and gold even further. In our view, the weakening of the decade-long correlation between real yield levels and gold is not only a reflection of the current higher inflation regime, but also reveals stronger structural demand. Meanwhile, emerging market central banks have ramped up their gold holdings in an effort to gain more independence from the US dollar, and the shift in China’s growth model has increased economic uncertainty, boosting physical demand for gold from local investors. Taken together, the confluence of these factors should support gold at a structurally higher price level than prior to the pandemic, softening the historical influence of real yields. Gold: Who's Buying it, and Why? As the ramifications of events in the middle east hit home in early October, the price of gold rebounded, pushing the metal close to $2000 (£1566) per ounce. Notably, the surge followed a period of consolidation that gold had experienced on the back of rising real yields. As such, the precious metal's recent pickup has amplified its recent decoupling from the 10-year yield on US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPs. This prompted us to take a closer look at the underlying factors. Some time ago, we established inflation as an important long-term driver of gold. The precious metal's post-pandemic price dynamics largely confirm this hypothesis. Clearly, the elevated inflation rates seen over the past two years imply a markedly lower gold price in real terms (which we obtain by deflating the dollar gold price with US headline inflation). This essentially reduces the gap between real yields and gold. Yet a substantial part of the gap remains unexplained. In our view, the decoupling of the decade-long correlation between long-term US real yield levels and the gold price largely points towards structural shifts in demand. In an effort to gain more independence from the US dollar, EM central banks have stepped up their gold holdings substantially over the past two decades – in particular China and Russia. The pace of institutional gold buying saw another acceleration after the US and their allies froze Russian dollar reserves in response to the invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. With official gold purchases exceeding 100 tonnes in H1 2023 alone, China continues to be the most significant institutional buyer year to date. Difficult China Backdrop Makes Gold Shine Gold has also become increasingly attractive for individual buyers. Again, China is a case in point. Once considered a safe asset, real estate has lost much of its appeal among local investors. The government's decision to deflate the housing market means the sector is in a structural decline. New sales and housing starts have fallen to levels not seen in a decade, and house prices have moved markedly lower over the past quarters. Chinese equities have similarly underperformed over the past two years and the renminbi has revisited its 2022 lows, erasing the gains it made after China's reopening. With the government enforcing strict limits on capital outflows, it is hard for investors to turn to the outside world. Along with its lack of viable and attractive domestic investment alternatives, China's macro backdrop makes gold shine ever more. Beyond this, local investors see gold as a hedge against the weakness of the Chinese renminbi. The unusually high demand for gold is particularly visible in a recent spike of the China gold premium – the spread at which gold is traded in Shanghai compared to London. The spread typically hovered around $10 per ounce over the past ten years, yet it temporarily rose above $50 per ounce during Q3 2023. Given that domestic financial asset returns are set to remain highly volatile, we expect physical gold demand to stay strong in China, a level high enough to matter for the world market. Taken together, we expect the confluence of these factors to support the gold price at a structurally higher level than prior to the pandemic, weakening the historic influence of real yields on gold to a considerable extent. Claudio Wewel is an FX strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management |
Posted at 27/11/2023 15:53 by stonedyou Will gold prices increase in 2024? Here's what the experts think.Gold investing has garnered a lot of attention in the last year or so. Gold prices soared, hitting their highest point in over a year, and discount retailer Costco even started selling gold bars online. It's no wonder either: Gold has long been known as a smart hedge against inflation — and with inflation well above the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, many consumers have sought out its protection. Gold is also a portfolio diversifier and, generally speaking, a good store of value in the long run. Despite all this, though, gold prices do fluctuate in the short term. In September, for example, the average price dipped below $1,850 per ounce. By the end of November, prices jumped over $2,000. Will prices top that in 2024? Here's what experts have to say. So, where are gold prices headed next year? Here's where the experts think gold prices will land in 2024. The economy will call for some safe bets One of the big reasons gold has become popular lately — and pricier — is stubborn inflation. And while the Fed has hiked interest rates many times to help quell it, the central bank is still far from its 2% goal. And according to a forecast from WisdomTree Investments, it will stay that way for a while. WisdomTree's forecast currently projects a 3.1% inflation rate at the start of 2024 and a 2.60% rate by the third quarter. This persistently high inflation could push up demand for gold and, subsequently, gold prices. "When inflation rates rise, gold prices often increase as well," says Liam Hunt, a financial writer and analyst for Gold IRA Guide. "If current trends of economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures continue, there could be upward pressure on gold prices. In 1980, gold prices reached a then-record $800 per ounce following years of generationally-high inflation over the preceding decade." Forecasts aren't always right, though. And while WisdomTree currently predicts gold prices to hit a new all-time high next year, if economic conditions worsen, demand for gold could rise considerably, sending prices up even more. As Nitesh Shah, head of commodities and macroeconomic research at WisdomTree, explains, "In other scenarios of the world where economic conditions deteriorate faster and there is greater demand for defensive assets, we could see gold prices rising even further." Explore how gold investing could benefit you here. Gold IRAs help you protect your financial assets with stability If you’re searching for a hedge against inflation, start buying gold coins, bars, and/or bullions. It’s as simple as clicking on your state now. Geopolitical tensions and the election could drive up demand for gold Inflation is an important factor to watch next year if you're tracking gold prices. Geopolitics are another. "Periodically, geopolitical risks, and a flight to safety drive up the demand for gold," Shah says. "Recently, the Israel-Hamas conflict has driven up the geopolitical premium in gold." He's right: After the conflict between Israel and Gaza began in early October, gold prices soared, reaching points not seen since mid-2022. "Fears that an uncontained, regional war could disrupt global markets and supply chains triggered capital flight into gold and away from speculative assets such as high-risk stocks," Hunt says. "Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset. In times of economic uncertainty or market volatility, investors tend to turn to gold, putting upward price pressure on the yellow metal." Another time investors might flock to a safe-haven investment like gold? That'd be during a presidential election, when some might view a change in leadership as a risk to their finances. "Given the U.S. presidential election in 2024, we expect retail demand for gold to remain high as investors turn to the metal to hedge against what they feel is a risk of an adverse outcome," Shah says. Gold prices will increase Given economic conditions and political tensions, most experts agree that gold prices are going to rise in 2024, as more and more consumers seek out a safe spot to store their wealth. "Gold is the best hedge there is and every portfolio," says Collin Plume, founder of Noble Gold Investments. "We have an average of an economic downturn every 5.5 years. Each time a downturn happens, you need that one asset that will keep you buoyant while you wait for the rest of your portfolio to recover." According to WisdomTree's forecast, gold prices will climb throughout 2024, eventually reaching $2,090 per ounce by the third quarter. In its "bull" forecast, the firm projects prices could get as high as $2,300 per ounce. |
Posted at 20/7/2023 21:03 by stonedyou BullionVault survey sees gold increasing by 10% by year-end.BullionVault Ltd has said half of the private investors (49.5%) it surveyed have forecast that the price of gold will increase by 10% by the end of the year, to around $2,125 per troy ounce. Some are even more bullish, according to the firm's half-yearly research report, with 15% believing that the gold price will increase by 20%, while one in five (21%) predict no change. That gives a consensus outlook for gold to end 2023 at $2,110. BullionVault currently cares for £3.1 billion of precious metals for more than 100,000 users worldwide, almost 90% of them living in the UK, Europe or North America. Its latest customer survey – run twice a year since 2014 – polled over 1,440 responses from private investors saying, on average, that they currently hold four-fifths of their investable wealth in other assets besides precious metals. That is reflected in the survey results, as diversification remains the most important reason named for adding precious metals to a portfolio (39%), followed closely by inflation (32%). Looking ahead, investors responding to BullionVault's survey believe monetary policy - such as interest rates and quantitative easing or tightening - will have the greatest impact of gold prices and other precious metals between now and the end of this year (33%), followed by geopolitical issues (17%) and the size of government spending and deficits (16%). Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, commented: "Gold tends do well when other assets perform poorly. With the precious metal continuing to outpace the FTSE and global stock markets since the eve of the terrible shocks from Covid and then inflation, private investors remain confident in gold's role as portfolio insurance. "Because gold pays no income, rising interest rates could present a headwind to the bullion market. But gold shrugged off rising interest rates in the first half of 2023 to reach new all-time highs in terms of all major currencies, including the Pound.” He added: "Private investors using BullionVault to spread their risk with physical precious metals now expect gold to set a fresh all-time high by New Year 2024, and after a dip in June, gold has already rebounded so far this month as interest-rate forecasts switch from higher-for-longer to peaking-sooner-than- "The gentler outlook for inflation and interest rates, plus the floor beneath gold prices coming from strong central-bank and Asian consumer demand, make another ten per cent increase by year-end very possible, especially if the broader economic picture turns markedly gloomier." |
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