Pan African Resources Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 23/2/2017 14:11

"If you have a positive view on gold or GBPZAR then these figures would be improved upon but then if you really held that view with any conviction there are much cheaper and more liquid ways of taking that view than buying PAF."

I'm always keen for a tip, care to name the companies/investments you have in mind?

[coincall] 23/2/2017 13:46

dangersimpson2,

I have not invested in PAF for the exchange rate value but I do appreciate it as a substantial additional lever to the total dividend payout.

[dangersimpson2] 23/2/2017 12:41

I'm gold & FX agnostic. I put them into the 'too hard' category of investing and take current spot as the most likely future value. If you have a positive view on gold or GBPZAR then these figures would be improved upon but then if you really held that view with any conviction there are much cheaper and more liquid ways of taking that view than buying PAF.

The 181koz may be a conservative estimate but the last estimate of 195koz proved to be too optimistic not pessimistic. So again I take the company estimate as the best estimate of this going forward.

There are several long term positives about PAF not least Ekiluhku but I thing it's fair to highlight that without a vary large positive move in gold price, GBPZAR and production vs current company estimate then PAF will miss FY17 consensus EPS (that I have as at 2.22p) by a wide margin. My previous positive view on the company was based on high potential FY17 earnings which no longer look possible. Those who are invested here based on the current EPS estimates are likely to be disappointed IMO.

[gold panda] 23/2/2017 12:32

man those num sound like commies - no logic and no economic knowledge at all

hxxp://www.polity.org.za/article/num-num-is-deeply-worried-about-retrenchments-at-evander-gold-mine-2017-02-23

The National Union Mineworkers (NUM) is shocked, disgusted and saddened by Evander Gold Mine intention to retrench 2 000 mineworkers in Mpumalanga.

Evander Gold Mine is a subsidiary of the Pan African Resources

Evander Gold Mine served the NUM with Section 189(3) notice of the Labour Relations Act to retrench workers this week on Tuesday.

The company informed the NUM that the retrenchments are as a result of an ageing infrastructure, high operating costs and a low gold price.

The NUM is totally opposed to these retrenchments at Evander Gold Mine. The retrenchment of 2 000 permanent workers is bad given the fact that the majority of mineworkers support 10 people per family which mean that a lot of people will be negatively affected by this retrenchments.

The NUM declares war against job losses through retrenchments, Voluntary Severance Package and other untoward concocted means of destroying the lives of many families with dependants in labour-sending areas.

The NUM is concerned that when mining companies issue Section 189 of the Labour Relations Act they do not align it with Section 52 of the MPRDA 2002, which states the following: “The holder of a mining right must, after consultation with any registered trade union or affected employees or their nominated representatives where there is no such trade union, notify the Minister in the prescribed manner- (a) where prevailing economic conditions cause the profit to revenue ratio of the relevant mine to be less than six percent on average for a continuous period of 12 months; or (b) if any mining operation is to be scaled down or to cease with the possible effect that 10 percent or more of the labour force or more than 500 employees, whichever is the lesser, are likely to be retrenched in any 12-month period.”

There is a need for a real transformation in the mining industry that emphasises on human development, not only profits.

The NUM will fight tooth and nail to make sure that its members are not retrenched cheaply. We remain fearless, committed, dedicated and unshaken in fighting for our members and other mineworkers.

[coincall] 23/2/2017 11:50

dangersimpson2,

Exchange rates over the last year have been working in GBP's favour. The figures you show are a very conservative company estimation. With negotiations for Brexit in disarray, I think we can assume further times of weakness in GBP over the next few years. The link below shows the ZAR GBP chart over the last two years and I see no reason to think the exchange rate will work against us in any significant way. The company has always been cautious in future estimations.

[gold panda] 23/2/2017 10:20

so no comments on the reduced costs from evander repairs?

"Reducing costs – Required cost savings of ZAR10 million per month identified to date"

targeted reduction of aisc by USD 200/oz and you are all whining? ZAR 41.5mn repairs and ZAR 10mn savings per month identified so far

i'm not selling a single PAF share unless it hits 30

[dangersimpson2] 23/2/2017 09:33

I think the production issues mean PAF are going to miss for the year:


2015A 2016A 2017H1A 2017H2E 2017E 2018E Gold price ZAR/Kg 446274 542850 565,298 515,000 540,149 H2E Spot 515,000 SpotAll in costs ZAR/Kg 425084 410206 456,187 456,187 456,187 Flat on H1 410,000 Same as 2016Kg produced 5690 6374 2850 2300 5149 FY17 181k vs 200k FY16 6374 Return to 200k productionGold PBT (ZARm) 121 845 311 135 446 669 Platinum PBT(ZARm) 21.3 1.3 1.3 3 H2 same as H1 3 Same as 2017EBarberton Collar(ZARm) 38.9 -6.2 33 (507k-Spot) x 778kg 0 Assume hedge closedUitkomst PBT (ZARm) 15.4 21.3 21.3 43 H2 same as H1 43 Same as 2017ERoyalties (ZARm) 29.7 60.1 17.3 17.3 35 H2 same as H1 35 Finance Costs (ZARm) 38 21.6 19.3 19.3 39 H2 same as H1 39 Same as 2017EPBT (ZARm) 53 768 336 115 451 641 FX rate (ZAR/GBP) 18 21.45 17.88 16.17 16.17 Spot 16.17 SpotPBT (£m) 2.94 35.79 18.78 7.11 27.88 39.65 PAT (£m) 2.18 26.49 13.90 5.26 20.63 26% SA tax rate 29.34 26% SA tax rateshares in issue (m) 1831 1811 1506 1506 1506 1506 EPS (p) 0.12 1.46 0.93 0.35 1.37 1.95 SP (p) LON:PAF 17.25 17.25 17.25 P/E 10.4 12.6 8.9



The triple whammy of lower production, higher costs and less favourable FX means that I don't think H2 will be great and they will miss market expectations for the full year. Earnings will be lower than 2016 if the current gold price, FX and production costs are maintained with production guidance still 181koz.

If they can get back to 200koz at 410k costs in FY18 then they are not that expensive but historically they have traded at a P/E of around 7 so they would still be higher than they have traded in the past and there's got to be a lot of uncertainty of them delivering those sort of figures given the issues faced this year.

Consequently I'm out until we get greater clarity on the FY18 outlook. Initiatives like Ekiluku will be positive in the long term but this won't be in production for a couple of years.

[haywards26] 22/2/2017 23:03

Positive coverage

hxxp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/173521/pan-african-resources-plc-to-pay-out-a-record-17mln-to-investors-as-first-half-profits-improve-173521.html

[aishah] 22/2/2017 19:49

I also existed on the 20th on a doubler

[thecynical1] 22/2/2017 17:15

DT 1010 - while I filtered the poster in question some time ago, nothing any poster on here says is in reality likely to affect the share price. I guess that none of us have holdings that are big enough to affect the share price.....

I have been in this for a few years. I don't like the developments here at the moment and don't like the talk of a funfraising especially in the light of the projected drop in production as a result of the scheduled work.

[dt1010] 22/2/2017 16:09

Active

Having pumped this while holding you did well.

But I detect now you're out you'd love to see this lower

Why continue to post otherwise???

Hmm......

[thecynical1] 22/2/2017 15:03

Don't like the sound of that possible fundraising nor the C3 figure from last six months of the year. Hmmmn

[srpactive] 22/2/2017 14:41

This paragraph in today's rns:

The Board approved the construction of Elikhulu, which is a further significant
step towards realising shareholder value from our organic growth projects. The
decision to commence construction of the project remains subject to finalising
the most appropriate financing package, with funding tailored to maximise
returns for our shareholders on a risk adjusted basis. On commissioning,
currently planned for the last quarter of the 2018 calendar year, the group
will be on track to achieve 250,000 ounces of annual gold production from our
current portfolio of assets and infrastructure. Elikhulu demonstrates the
group's commitment to remaining focused on our core business of low cost gold
mining.

--------------------------------------

Yes RI could be on the way.

dyor

regards

active

[gold panda] 22/2/2017 14:19

interview with cobus
hxxp://www.cnbcafrica.com/video/?bctid=5332197295001
i don't like however this capital increase talk

[gold panda] 22/2/2017 10:43

I noticed some nice thing in the presentation. expected results from investments in evander
• Targeting AISC of USD1,100/oz
• Increasing productivity
• Reducing costs – Required cost savings of ZAR10 million per month identified to date

aisc was USD 1310/oz in the period, so USD 200/oz reduction and since the entire investment is ZAR 41 million, should be paid back from savings in just over 4 months. improved safety should also help avoid accidents

[srpactive] 22/2/2017 09:39

GC

Yes agree, I put a very large amount in at 7p, so it
would have been foolish to sit and watch whilst news
of a death and a closure of a pit occurs.

Quite right regarding buying back in, if I have called it
wrong and the price increases on good news I have no problem
accepting that and buying back in.

Nice talking.

dyor

regards

active

[garycook] 22/2/2017 09:33

It seems that way.Surprised you sold out so early.But a profit is a profit,and you can always buy back in.

[srpactive] 22/2/2017 09:07

GC

I should have topped up at my oneview with my paf funds.

dyor

[srpactive] 21/2/2017 15:42

No, bought in at 7p and a few higher than that, so
was happy with the return, if it goes higher
so be it. I have no problem with buying higher or
lower here as and when, but the last rns I did
not like.

dyor

[garycook] 21/2/2017 14:58

srp,Did you buy back in ?

[dt1010] 20/2/2017 13:13

Indeed do da

This is cheap IMO

[charlieeee] 20/2/2017 12:34

Sleveen

Per RNS

"
The cost of the shaft refurbishment programmes is expected to be approximately
R40 million, which will be funded from the Company's existing banking
facilities".

So, £2.5m. approx.

Small beer compared with a man's life, to stop a repeat.

[dt1010] 20/2/2017 10:23

Don't know but I believe we will see $1350 in 2017 for gold.
Loading up now on a pullback his not imprudent IMO.