Paddy Power Share Discussion Threads

[m.t.glass] 30/3/2005 22:57

Maybe. I took mine. But if it bounces off its 50day ma I might be tempted to buy again.

[midasmonkey] 30/3/2005 10:29

Any ideas why this one has started going down ? Year end profit taking ?

[m.t.glass] 18/3/2005 20:48

mi-mo,
The growth pattern predates their (modest) online poker involvement by several years.

Sharescope shows it not having closed below its 200day eMA since autumn 2002 - ie stayed above it through the whole of 2003, the whole of 2004, and more. (28 consecutive months). Indeed apart from a brief spell below that line in 2002, and briefly brushing the line 3 times before that, it hasn't been near it in over 4 years since it came to market here - during which time the share price has grown fivefold.

In recent weeks it has benefited from a positive analyst comment or two regarding its continuing growth prospects. And it has always shown itself capable of absorbing the occasional run of losing bets that afflict all bookies now and then.

Its poker venture is not yet big enough to have contributed a lot, but the very mention of that word will perhaps have steered a few more investors into looking at this stock for the first time and discovering its merits.

mtg ;o)

[midasmonkey] 18/3/2005 17:45

Can anyone explain the steady rise in this stock to me ? Is it due to their involvement with online poker/casinos ?

[cool hand kev] 18/3/2005 10:47

No favorite winners yesterday those tills are bursting at the seems.

[m.t.glass] 17/3/2005 16:11

Irish search engine:

(blame QLDer - that's who I pinched it off)

[m.t.glass] 15/3/2005 09:46

I guess some visitors might spend less per day (among the ones there every day) but more overall, but total visitor numbers presumably will be up (though not fully 4/3 pro rata).

I gather Paddy Power (like others) are expecting a very dramatic surge in their internet activity this time around, even had it still been 3 days. And this event, more than any other, presumably brings in a lot of internet newbies who will continue thereafter.

It'll be interesting to see what stats look like if they publish them soon after rather than waiting till next scheduled trading statement.

[cool hand kev] 15/3/2005 09:16

Hello:
Not neccesary but given that they made £10 million over 3 days last yr they should make pro rata that this yr

[m.t.glass] 15/3/2005 09:11

PAP is rising as the Cheltenham festival begins. Stretching it from 3 days to four means extra races. Extra races probably means some horses that otherwise wouldn't race will be entered - does this mean more non-favourites winning?

[cool hand kev] 13/3/2005 17:01

Should be a good wk next wk every time a favorite goes down PAP goes up
Bookies already up £1million with the anti-post non-runners and a race hasn't started yet easy money

[m.t.glass] 10/3/2005 16:24

and talking of popes..
Paddy Power - in their usual irreverent manner - have been offering odds on who the next pope will be, without waiting for the present one to die first.

[cat] 09/3/2005 23:28

wot a surprise.
A virtual Pope will be the dealer.

[m.t.glass] 09/3/2005 21:00

"...Irish discount airline RyanAir has indicated that it might be among the first airlines to pursuing casino-style gambling and sports betting on flights as well, which may include card games like Hold 'Em..." (Irish Echo, NY)


(from a wide-ranging article on the growth of internet poker in which they also give a passing mention to Paddy Power's recent introduction of Poker. They don't imply that Paddy Power will provide the Ryanair facility, but I wonder..)

[m.t.glass] 03/3/2005 19:36

Paddy Power races up on upgrades

March 03, 2005 16:31
Shares in bookmaker Paddy Power rose over 6% to a year high today after two analysts increased their earnings forecasts on the firm as it enters the lucrative online gambling market.

Davy Stockbrokers raised its 2005 earnings forecast by 19%, citing the performance and potential of the group's online site, where gamblers can play casino and poker.

Investment bank CSFB also said Paddy Power's entry into the online business was one of the reasons it was upgrading its 2005 earnings forecast by 9%.

Shares in the firm, whose profits rose by more than half last year, jumped more than 6 % to a year high of €14.02 earlier today, before retracing gains to trade at €13.70, up 50 cent by 4pm today.



Source:

[m.t.glass] 03/3/2005 14:26

Bookies still a safe bet as web threat falls flat

Jim Stanton
(The Scotsman, March 3)


IF their claims of a few years back were to be believed, Britain’s major bookmaking chains were facing the abyss from the emergence of online betting exchanges.

These facilities, such as Betfair and Betdaq, essentially removed the bookmaker’s role, swapping it with a system where one punter matched a bet offered by another hopeful.

A 16 per cent increase in William Hill’s 2004 pre-tax earnings and a 28 per cent jump in income at Hilton’s Ladbrokes chain to £232 million and £273.4m respectively seem to suggest that Britain’s two biggest bookies businesses called it wrong.

Throw in a £22m profit at Paddy Power - Ireland’s biggest bookmaking firm - coupled with its 16th consecutive year of turnover growth and you get a clear picture of how much money punters are handing over to the bookies.

However, all seem to claim that they suffered last year at the hands of apparently lucky punters, who had put their money on well-backed equine favourites or were betting on football teams like Celtic, Rangers, Chelsea and Manchester United, who were on decent winning runs.

Despite such rotten luck on their part, the bookmaking groups still see growth in the market, so much so that William Hill and Paddy Power are looking to open more high street outlets in Britain. David Harding, chief executive at William Hill, Britain’s second-biggest bookmaking firm, says: "I think we could buy another 600," adding that he was holding talks with "a number of smaller operators".

Meanwhile, Paddy Power chief executive John O’Reilly says he is looking to boost his group’s presence in Britain from 31 to 50 outlets by the end of the year.

There is method in the apparent madness. While traditional retail betting in high street shops may have plateaued, it’s the rise of other forms of betting, namely online poker and casino sites and Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (FOBTs) in shops, that are fuelling profitability.

But others in the industry think that is not enough and Britain’s bookmakers need to start thinking on a global level.

Mr O’Reilly says Dublin-based Paddy Power, with 143 shops in Ireland, enjoyed an "outstanding" performance from its online division in 2004. "While all strands of the business performed well, I am particularly pleased the online business has come of age," he adds.

HILTON’s chairman, Sir Ian Robinson, was similarly pleased with his group’s haul from internet gambling, where profits were up 50 per cent to £21.3m, fuelled by the success of Ladbrokes’ poker website.

"The increasing profitability of Ladbrokes is just reward for its innovative and professional approach to the betting and gaming business," he says.

Mr Harding says William Hill, which has 1606 shops across Britain, finished the year with 5573 FOBTs in its shops, adding that the company will continue to "optimise numbers, siting and product".

Over the year, he says the company made a net profit of £370 per week per machine. "We hope to improve profitability in 2005 through a combination of product innovation and improved contractual terms with our suppliers," he states.

William Hill ended 2004 with 292,000 interactive customers, compared with 247,000 in 2003. The number picked up strongly on the back of good growth in "internet poker, the online casino, and arcade products".

The group ended the year with gross win - or punter loss - from the division climbing 25 per cent to £106.1m and profit up 39 per cent to £51.7m.

A year-end launch of a new range of java-based casino and slot products suitable for GPRS and third-generation mobile phones is also seen as fuelling future profits.

The new Gambling Bill going through Parliament at the moment was not an area that William Hill sees too much scope in.

Chairman Charles Scott says: "The Gambling Bill now appears less likely to offer opportunities for expansion of the UK casino industry, and synergies between casino and betting operators, than were originally anticipated.

"Consequently, the board is not inclined to commit significant capital to potential acquisitions outside of its core bookmaking and gaming businesses at the current time."

[m.t.glass] 03/3/2005 12:05

Meanwhile... Paddy Power has re-released odds on the identity of the next Pope:

Tettamanzi, at 5-2, is ahead of 74-year-old Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze, 3-1, and 68-year-old Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino of Cuba, 11-2.

(watch out for big bets being placed by shady-looking Italians carrying violin cases)

Oh heck - does investing in PAP make me a PAPist ??

[m.t.glass] 03/3/2005 11:57

Analysts switching from WMH?

[m.t.glass] 01/3/2005 02:38

27 February 2005 By Ed Micheau

Bookmaker Paddy Power is expecting the 2005 Cheltenham horseracing festival to generate turnover of more than €30 million, an increase of 30 per cent on last year.

The Irish bookmaker will benefit from an additional day of racing at this year's festival, which runs over four days from March 15 to 18. The annual Cheltenham festival is the National Hunt calendar showpiece.

The turnover generated for Paddy Power by the Cheltenham festival has trebled over the last five years. Over a quarter of the €30 million betting turnover is expected to emanate from Britain, where Paddy Power is opening new offices in London.

The increased importance of the British market to the company is also reflected in buoyant improvements in online and telephone betting. Turnover from these two channels is expected to account for up to 40 per cent of the business conducted by Paddy Power during the festival.

The bookmaker will be hoping for a repeat of last year, when fewer favourites won races. This was in stark contrast to 2003, when ten out of the 20 winners at the festival were favourites, which contributed to the issue of a profit warning.

Paddy Power's share price closed at €13 on Friday, up 20 per cent since the start of the year.

(Sunday Business Post)

[m.t.glass] 24/2/2005 22:39

Is that your considered view on all stocks kkioto? That if they reach a new high they cannot go higher still?

[kkioto] 24/2/2005 22:21

they are already at their highest anyway, they will not go up much

[cat] 24/2/2005 16:44

added again today - these are quality

[cat] 23/2/2005 10:51

Investec note just out

Paddy Power - BUY
Powers on
! In-line finals after recent pre-close round-up. Paddy Power has
announced finals for the year ending December 2004, with €32.3m PBT (fully
diluted EPS 54.7c, up 56%). The final dividend is increased 46% to 8.59c per
share to total 18.72c for the year.
! Retained estimates. Despite a strong performance from the online
business division, we think it is too early in the financial year to alter our
estimates. We therefore retain our €36.3m PBT (EPS 61.8c) for the year
ending December 2005.
! Highlights. Flat profits in the retail division are explained by unfavourable
sporting results in Q4 (especially in December), which reduced gross margin
and the start up costs of the UK LBO roll-out. However, this was offset by
strong volume and gross win % in online (volumes +23%, gross margin 10.7%
versus 7.3% in 2003) and telephone (volumes +8%, gross margin 8.3% versus
7.4% in 2003).
Paddy Power has 31 units open in the London area and expects an overall
profit from the London estate in 2006. The existing 31 units are expected to
trade profitably in the current year but central costs and the opening of at
least 15 new units will offset the core performance.
! Valuation. We estimate that Paddy Power will grow EPS c.14% compound
over the next three years and stands on a 20.8x P/E, 11.8x EV/EBITDA (end
2005). However the company has c.€50m net cash on the balance sheet
which, if used to buy shares in, would reduce the P/E to less than 20x.
! Our view. Paddy Power has delivered strong growth in the past year. In
the future the roll-out of the LBOs in the UK (with reduced start-up drag
cost) for the overall retail division and the continued expansion in the online
division (poker, casino and cross-sell to sports) will fuel further growth. We
retain our BUY recommendation.