Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
P2P Global Investments LSE:P2P London Ordinary Share GB00BLP57Y95 ORD GBP0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -8.00p -0.92% 859.00p 861.00p 866.50p 870.50p 860.50p 868.00p 106,846 16:35:04
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 63.9 29.9 35.4 24.3 701.38

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Date Time Title Posts
26/5/201720:07P2P Global 458

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P2P Global Daily Update: P2P Global Investments is listed in the Equity Investment Instruments sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker P2P. The last closing price for P2P Global was 867p.
P2P Global Investments has a 4 week average price of 860.50p and a 12 week average price of 860.50p.
The 1 year high share price is 918p while the 1 year low share price is currently 721.50p.
There are currently 81,650,532 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 56,767 shares. The market capitalisation of P2P Global Investments is £701,378,069.88.
aroon001: Good news, I guess the share price has reflected this already. 15% performance is still on the high side for a fixed income fund but much better now it has a hurdle (though 5% hurdle when the target is 7.5% is a bit harsh). Our interests are aligned. Shame nothing more concrete on managing the discount to NAV. I'm not sure why a quarterly buyback at say 10% discount, of a minimum amount of shares wasn't announced. Would have immediately raised the share price with minimal cost. Though if dividends move up to 60p per year, I imagine the share price will rise anyway. I think it was Anley that sold up, I never exited, for me I'm holding these shares long term for income in the kids names. The discount to NAV, whilst annoying since I bought at IPO, is not so important for me currently, though it would be if it stayed like this permanently.
aroon001: Perhaps. If the investment manager just sits there whilst the share price falls 30% and it takes major shareholders to make them think twice about their strategy, it would be far more preferable to replace the investment manager. Focusing more on the UK at a time when UK economy is slowing doesn't seem aparticularly astute call. Other things like focusing on more secure debt - why haven't they been doing that before if it was such a good idea and it reads like complete nonsense that secured credit would have higher yields than unsecured. id prefer: 1) change of manager 2) adjustment of fees to include a hurdle rate 3) quarterly buy back of shares at 5% below NAV to anyone who wants to exit.
aroon001: I dont think the mkt makers are forcing anyone out. The returns just haven't been that good to justify a higher share price. If investors expect say a 6% yield then 800p seems fair. Why the returns have been low is another issue. Seems like it's default rates have been somewhat higher. Plus the costs (including the ridiculous performance fee) are eating away at the returns.
aroon001: Im wondering who is selling at a 20% discount and furthermore its in the face of a buyback program. Bizarre isn't it. Someone out there feels its better to sell at this price than hold onto them. I don't think you should knock technical analysis - I'm not a firm believer but we all use it subconsciously - eg looking at the recent highs and lows is technical analysis. If others follow such indicators then the can become self fulfilling. Re daily volume, the average daily vol for past 3 months has been 100k, the same as average volume for the last 12 months. So I don't think you can draw the conclusion that its just management buying shares at the moment. Nothing has actually changed in terms of daily volume. They probably announced the buy back program at -25% ish cos they thought there was risk discount would go to -50% in absence of doing anything! I'm not sure there is any value selling at 850. if you believe that they will start returning the 0.5-0.7% monthly returns needed to get share price back to 1000p then you should hold on. All the factors they mentioned for these low monthly returns shud have/be dissipating. And u get the extra kicker of the buy backs adding NAV.
aroon001: Thats like 0.2% of shares outstanding I think? Every little helps I suppose. Think though would be better to have a tender offer once a quarter for 5% of the shares at say 10% below nav. That way share price would stay in line with nav much better. And if the company shares outstanding fell to say less than 30% of original issue size the company would be wound down.
aroon001: Interesting that there are still sellers at 20% discount even with this announcement. Clearly it will take a few 0.5s 0.6s to really get the share price moving higher from here. Just re reading the announcement it cud be that nothing has changed in terms of volumes bought etc except that it is Liberium buying with their own discretion instead of the fund manager. In which case perhaps shudnt have much effect on share price.
rl34870: VPC have just produced an excellent investor presentation on their website which produces a lot of the info we need for P2P which is well worth a read even if you're not invested in it. Don't be too discouraged about their marketplace loan defaults as their loans are typically bands E and F whereas P2P,s are A to D. I suspect P2P will produce a further presentation ( they did a good one in February this year) when they are a little bit clearer about the future path of defaults rates. After all the rest is just tinkering, the main determinant of the share price is default rates.
rl34870: Yes I was also optimistic at 830 so it is disappointing but on balance I feel that this company is a quality operation. Market sentiment tonwards tis sector is very poor at the moment which is why the share price is where it is. A steady share buy back is all they can really do and you only have to look at the share price swings of oil majors, banks etc to see how short term the market is. Definicely not a good time to sell.
aroon001: 1) I don't think anyone of any importance follows this blog (however great that would be! 2) I don't think investors are exiting with great haste - to me the fair value of this stock given it shud be about 6-7% yield is probably in the 600-700 pence area. If anything buyers are being overly optimistic at these levels if one continues to expect 35-40 pence dividends a year. 3) The discount to NAV is a bit of a distraction. Even if the assets were bought at 100 yielding 10% ish, (and could be sold for that price approx), if you are only returning 3% to your investors, the share price should halve regardless of nav. 30% discount may sound ridiculous, but I cant see why it wudnt go to 40% or 50% if the fund manager is doing such a poor job. 4) reasons to be optimistic due to a tweak in strategy? not really, stating that they will increase proportion of gbp assets not sure why that would change anything. USD assets infact yield more so I cant see what this would achieve. 5) Rising bonds yields - seems like the duration of the portfolio is 2 years according to the factsheet. Since inception I don't think bond yields have moved so much in 2 year maturities, if anything they have gone lower so this should have been an overall plus. 6) open ended may make more sense for this given how relatively new P2P securities are, but with such poor performance, rather than a large discount, there would be queues of investors trying to exit. Ultimately for me the bottom line is that the fact sheet states the underlying loans have an 11% coupon. Leveraged up this is about a 20% return. If the final investor only gets 3% there is a serious issue and the resultant discount is just a manifestation of this, rather than something to be that surprised about in terms of magnitude. Worryingly none of us really know why the returns are so low. Reasons given have been fx hedging and the securitisation of the Zopa portfolio but the given the low cash balances now, and the one off nature of the latter, I'm not sure why returns are still low.
davebowler: Liberum on 8th June; P2P Global Investments (BUY) Lending Club indicates stable credit performance and interest rate uplift Event Lending Club yesterday released an update regarding its standard programme loans including an uplift in average interest rates and a tightening in credit criteria. Lending Club also indicated recent credit performance continues to be stable. The company expects a slight improvement in gross losses although this may be offset by slightly lower recoveries with a resultant unchanged expectation for net losses. As a reminder, 60.5% of P2PGI's portfolio is invested in US consumer loans. The exact breakdown by platform is not disclosed but we estimate over half of P2PGI's US consumer loans were originated from Lending Club. P2PGI's investments are concentrated in the higher quality A-C rated loans which we believe account for 80-90% of the fund's US consumer exposure. Lending Club is increasing the average interest rates across its portfolio to boost the attractiveness of the asset to investors. Interest rates will increase by an average of 55 bps and the changes are concentrated in grades D, E and F (Figure 1). Furthermore, the maximum debt to income criteria is being reduced to 35% (from 40%) across the standard loan programme. Loan volume is likely to be reduced by 5% as a result and will mainly impact grades E-G. There is still a lot of uncertainty over the developments at Lending Club and the decision to delay yesterday's annual shareholder meeting at short notice will do little to assuage concerns (the share price fell 7.4% yesterday). We also note press reports that former CEO Renaud Leplanche is in discussions with private equity groups to fund a potential buyout for Lending Club. Liberum view Over the medium term, the change to interest rates will be beneficial for P2PGI given the increased return available although the NAV is likely to be impacted in the short term by mark-to-model changes in the value of P2PGI's US assets held within the Eaglewood Income Fund. This valuation takes into account a number of factors including Lending Club interest rates. These assets are revalued as it is an open-ended fund with other LP investors and the fair value is used to price the units in the fund. All of the other loans held within P2PGI's portfolio are held at cost. The markdown should unwind over the term of each loan as they are held to maturity. Lending Club's statements regarding the credit performance of the loans is encouraging and is backed up by statistics from the loan book data. There has been a divergence in the credit performance of the higher and lower quality loans. Gross charge-off rates for higher quality loans (graded A-C) are in line with expectations (Figure 2) and this is where the majority of P2PGI's capital is deployed. Lower quality loans (graded D-G) have experienced a steady increase in gross charge-off rates which explains the larger rate rise for these grades.
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