Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[edgein] 03/11/2015 15:53

Dave,

$489m is the low end of both valuations given at the time for the DCF, 480.3m for AGF and $9m for Khandiza. I know $9m seems ludicrous for Khandiza but some holders here even think that should we win we may get less. It takes all sorts though.

Regards,
Ed.

[the skipper] 03/11/2015 15:53

Further to my earlier post Newmont settled out of court with the Uzbeks when their assets were seized, so we have precedent:hxxp://www.mining-technology.com/projects/zarafshan/

[dave444] 03/11/2015 15:50

For anybody to quote $489m would have to add plus Khandiza asset

[riskier] 03/11/2015 15:49

#27434, and what would you suppose the Uzbek accountants have quantified? My holding in Oxus is currently one million shares, so I am (obviously!) hoping for a positive outcome, but people should not suggest that's its a done deal. Its not.

[riskier] 03/11/2015 15:44

#27427, should not confuse valuation with award. I presume the Uzbeks valuation $0, or maybe they think they are owed money.

[dave444] 03/11/2015 15:39

The Company's losses in respect of its AGF investment have been quantified by Ernst & Young together
with Wardell Armstrong International on the basis of a DCF quantification as ranging as high as USD 661.8m
and not lower than USD 480.3m.

* On the basis of a discounted cash flow ("DCF") quantification, the loss in respect of the Khandiza
investment ranges from a high of USD 588.7 million to a low of US$ 72.1m, and as a very last alternative, on a
restitution basis (i.e. upon the restoration of the Company's Khandiza investment), US$ 9m.
USD 480.3m + US$ 72.1m = $552.4m

[riskier] 03/11/2015 15:39

So many ways to value this, that's why its called arbitration and why it takes so long. RS has said he expects at least $400m, but what he expects and what we get are potentially very different. Let's run with his $400m gross, deduct $40m for the lawyers, so $360m net, so £240 net, 750m shares (allowing for further dilution), so about 30p a share. If we sell the debt on, say 20p a share. Debt recovery from the Uzbeks will not be easy, so the process will cost, but I think RS will want to move on quickly. All in my very humble opinion.

For the record I hold 1m @ 1.6p (from a very long time ago!).

[ronconomics] 03/11/2015 15:38

Can I have the money now please ?

[dave444] 03/11/2015 15:35

$552.4m excluding Khandiza restitution - minimum

[the stigologist] 03/11/2015 15:35

DCF is discounted cashflow. Since then there has been real cashflow and the discount reduces by x years. That by itself could mean the award is worth 50-100% more now.

[wulber] 03/11/2015 15:35

Thanks EdNot sure where $552m came from!?

[edgein] 03/11/2015 15:33

Wulber,

The amount in the original arbi document as the extract posted earlier was a minimum amount sought of $400m before proceedings determine merits and quantum. since then DCF values etc suggested a claim range of $489-1.25bn as released by the company 2011-2012.

Regards,
Ed.

[wulber] 03/11/2015 15:30

You know exactly what i mean riskier.The professional minimum valuation.

[riskier] 03/11/2015 15:29

The minimum award is $0 IMO

[wulber] 03/11/2015 15:26

I thought the minimum award was $552 mn?

[pennyfalls] 03/11/2015 15:24

A lot of people counting their chickens here , falsely( IMO) believing because it has gone on for a long time (Just over the average actually) that means Quantum discussions only.

Our Arbitration is split into 4 parts - when all parts are concluded and summarised, the result will be published...Win, Draw, or Lose.
This could be a full victory, partial victory or outright loss - with the Uzbeks counterclaims then taken into account.

It's alike Ramp-fest on here recently..or maybe trying to re-assure yourself that it must be a win.

[pennyfalls] 03/11/2015 15:20

Skipper.
What utter bolllocks

[the skipper] 03/11/2015 15:13

I think the reason for the delay in knowing the outcome could be to do with this event which is taking place this week. It's been all over Bloomberg TV ads and the Uzbeks are obviously hoping that it attracts loads of new investment: hxxps://www.un.int/uzbekistan/uzbekistan/international-investment-forum

"The main objective of the event is to present the leading enterprises of the Republic of Uzbekistan, included in the state program of privatization, and to sell them to strategic foreign investors capable of ensuring modernization and technological renewal of production, manufacturing of goods competitive in both domestic and external markets, as well as introduction of modern corporate governance practices."

"The agenda of the event includes plenary sessions, presentations by major foreign investors on their experience in doing business in Uzbekistan..."

Clearly Oxus will not have been invited, but they could well have come to an out of court settlement on the basis that they keep their gobs shut about what a lousy place this is to do business, and ensure that there is minimal publicity about the deal when it is announced post the event.

Monday RNS then?

[edgein] 03/11/2015 14:40

OB,

That would be for AGF only.

"The feasibility study of Amantaytau projected that AGF would accrue an aggregate of US$13.9 million in tax liability to the Uzbek Government. However, as a result of the Uzbek Government's arbitrary revocation of its tax privileges, AGF has been forced to pay taxes and duties of US$53.1 million to date. Consequently, Claimant has endured a tax burden that exceeds earlier estimates by as much as US$31.6 million."

Forced to pay $53m due to changes in its tax, sunk costs of at least $100m over these two projects. value at the time would be linked to that discounted chinese offer but then that was under duress and what could be seen as a discounted offer. Lost profits from both assets I would guess would run into the billions over a 10 year duration, both have a mine life of at least 10 years. Loss of shareholder value, these were at one point 85p per share, so 81p per share loss of value (share price would have likely been many times that had they been allowed to develop AGF through to 300,000Oz pa and Khandiza to XX or XXX million tonnes per year).

Moral damages, interest, any other element that the panel see fit. I guess the above list is why so many hold with determination to the end and why its taken over 4 years to get close to a final result.

Regards,
Ed.

[orgasmicbeef] 03/11/2015 14:23

Anyone know how to value here?
Take Chinese proposed investment, 185m US$, run at their required return and see what NPV value they reckoned their mine would be. Gross up for 72% ownership. Take 50% and attribute to Oxs. Comes out very reasonable at my other three ways to value. Pre expropriation. Simples.
So that's another way to value our interest, Savvy = I see not many....
All going to happen soon. GLA

[kcowe] 03/11/2015 14:02

Thats a good point wilfy ,I should think if the oxs case was lost then Caunius investors would not have the appetite to incur further losses on the scale racked up so far ,by continuing in the same sector?.interesting.

[wilfy75] 03/11/2015 13:48

Thanks kcowe! Indeed maytrees - our huge comfort on that front is the fact that Calunius (our hard-nosed litigation fund) have considered our case, warts and all, and concluded that they wish to invest over $6 million in it (plus their own time and, doubtless, separate counsel) which is a massive vote of confidence.

In fact, not only that but they've also seen fit to back other BIT claims such as Rusoro's - they clearly like the sector and are putting their own money (and that of their investors) at risk.

[maytrees] 03/11/2015 13:41

Hopefully wilfy75 'hammering on the table' will prove not to be apt for OXS

[kcowe] 03/11/2015 13:39

Nicely put wilfy75 ... I like that .