Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[jungmana] 16/10/2015 11:28

8p conversion price and you can by now for 4.3p. Very bullish news there :-)

[jaf1948] 16/10/2015 11:27

Sorry, but I don't buy the euphoria. The RNS can be interpreted in so many ways (as many people have already posted) that IMO the situation hasn't changed.

[holdingtight] 16/10/2015 11:26

Pennyfalls has a point.It might not be the case in fact, but in principle, they might think better to convert and sell some or all at our around 4p, than hold and risk getting nothing if no award. Why the hurry to convert. Although the terms might have forced conversion if I read it correctly.

[dusseldorf] 16/10/2015 11:25

So - are we in agreement that we are looking at a static 703m shares with no more to be issued outside of agreements with Darwin?

If so, potential payouts in UK GBP (AFTER calunius) are (give or take darwin):

Award value (£GBPm).....Value per share (p)
0...................................0.00p
50..................................7.10p
100................................14.21p
150................................21.31p
200................................28.42p
250................................35.52p
300................................42.63p
350................................49.73p
400................................56.83p
450................................63.94p
500................................71.04p
550................................78.15p
600................................85.25p

[thejaba] 16/10/2015 11:25

Pennyfalls

you really are missing quite a lot

[dorset64] 16/10/2015 11:23

The CLN's could had taken OXS down and owned the company by them defaulting, instead they have decided to take shares at 100% increase to todays price. Go figure!

[giant steps] 16/10/2015 11:22

CLN holders can no longer break the company, dilution fears removed

[abrahe00] 16/10/2015 11:21

If RS truly believes (knows?)the award is going to happen in "the very near future", why is he so worried about the future interest the CLNs would be earning?

It's good that the CLN issue is resolved but I don't believe RS knows any more about the end of the tribunal now than he did over a year ago when he predicted an outcome in 2014.

AIMHO...

[dorset64] 16/10/2015 11:21

Excellent news as, without any firm indications to the outcome of the award, why would these co's take a flip of the coin gamble with their money. I am now thinking that OXS know something of a 'pending' award outcome but, as its not official yet they cannot announce, or something along those lines etc.

[marmar80] 16/10/2015 11:20

No debt, financing secured + news around the corner

[edgein] 16/10/2015 11:18

PF,

You think they'd been better taking them at 4p then? A 100% premium to the current share price is a massive positive. Perhaps they're expecting a material return on these 8p shares in the very near future. OXS is now debt free, no more need for anyone to bang on about OXS going bust or how to deal with the CLNs. CLNs now removed at a significant 100% premium to the share price (bid was a little above 4p). OXS now debt free, clear road ahead, no CLN roadblock, its been blasted. Significantly +ve announcement.

Regards,
Ed.

[wilfy75] 16/10/2015 11:16

courboy1 - you're right, OXS couldn't have paid them in December (not without a rights issue which could well have been at an appalling discount). We know, of course, that RAB are a seller so we'll see that downward pressure but in my view it will pass as it has before.

[thehitman1] 16/10/2015 11:15

£1.65 soon.

[giant steps] 16/10/2015 11:13

Conversion @ 8p, buy in the market @ 4.5p

Should be on all radars very soon imo

[pennyfalls] 16/10/2015 11:13

Hmmm..am I missing something here - after a quick look they can trade these on the open market after Oct 22...
I don't see this as a massive positive...I'm not sure yet, will have to let it digest.

Surely if Oxus were to lose they'd rather have the share snow anyway? Aren't they just hedging their position a little in case Oxus lose outright and they never get the conversion?.

[edgein] 16/10/2015 11:13

Amazing! Bye bye CLN's hello 8p! Excellent that all note holders have agreed to take shares at a substantial premium to the current share price. Road now clear to the very near future.

Regards,
Ed.

[wilfy75] 16/10/2015 11:12

PaulE3 - would you mind sharing your thinking?

Mine is that up until this moment the CLN-holders had the ability to close down OXS. This is because they were actually entitled to be repaid real cash on 14 December - and we didn't have any to pay them. We would then have been insolvent and liable to being wound up etc. This didn't make any sense to the CLN-holders since they wouldn't actually get paid much of their debt but it was a technical possibility.

As RS intimated at the AGM, because of this the CLN-holders were likely to do a deal but the question was what? Either push out the conversion date (a great option for them since they continued to receive PIK interest) or convert early, lose the advantage they have of deciding when / whether to convert etc (e.g. if the award turned out to be very small and the share price only reached 10p then they could hold on to their CLNs and be paid the equivalent of 12p). The fact that they have converted early is therefore in my view a very strong and supportive signal.

It's also a good job by RS for not much of an added dilution. I like it.

[maytrees] 16/10/2015 11:12

Greetings PaulE3
OXS itself has signified recently that the outcome was expected very soon. They were of course wrong about that last year but why would the various creditors decide today to convert loans into shares (at 8p each if my interpretation is correct) rather than bide their time - no my view though of course dyor - is that we will hear v. soon.

[courboy1] 16/10/2015 11:10

Ok so I just added on this, but how about a contrarian opinion:

CLN holders won't get any payment in December as the company doesn't have enough cash to pay. The holders decide to take a conversion at 8p and sell straight back into the market at (for arguments sake), 4p. They recoup 50% of their money this way, Vs. potentially nothing.

I do see this as positive but I also expect RAB to be selling their stock asap.

[the stigologist] 16/10/2015 11:10

Excellent news. Once again the chart told the story.

Price declines on low volume are often a good technical indicator.

Now we need to break the overhead resistance at 4.625p - 4.90p and then we can trade where fundamentals suggest we should i.e. 10-15p IMO

[garbut] 16/10/2015 11:09

Got some more at 4.48....Only a small top up but....YEEESSSSSS!

[pug151] 16/10/2015 11:08

Convertable at 8 p !!! Not 4

[dave444] 16/10/2015 11:06

Claim range excluding Khandiza restitution is $552.4m to $1250.5m!

Payout at 705 million shares (we must owe are broker a few):

$552.4m = $0.78
$634.5m = $0.90
$705m = $1
$775.5m = $1.10
$846m = $1.20
$916.5m = $1.30
$987m = $1.40
$1057.5m = $1.50
$1128m = $1.60
$1198.5m = $1.70
$1250.5m = $1.77

Have to take Calunius take off this and add any interest payment awarded.

[giant steps] 16/10/2015 11:04

That is huge news, they didn't have to take the risk