Oxus Gold Share Discussion Threads

[valkyrie1] 08/10/2015 14:08

Looking pretty damn good

[the stigologist] 08/10/2015 14:07

Still blue sky on the short term technicals to 4.625p at least

[giant steps] 08/10/2015 14:06

+/- 1p will soon look tiny if/when we price in double digits

[the stigologist] 08/10/2015 14:05

Awaiting Merits and Quantum



* Oxus Gold vs Republic of Uzbekistan for alleged expropriation of assets

* Legal funding Calunius on No Win No Fee basis

* Arbitration started 31 August 2011

* May 2014 arbitration hearing completed (see RNS 19 May 2014)
* Claim Range $489m to $1250m (Nov 2012)

[the stigologist] 08/10/2015 14:02

That could be anything from 50-125p per share

[the stigologist] 08/10/2015 14:02

I prefer the expert view of c.$600-1300m with interest escalator and costs in our favour + moral damages

[wilfy75] 08/10/2015 13:58

Many thanks WJ. Yes, agree it's not a "straight line" 20% as, to a certain extent, the enforcement costs will have a certain minimum amount.

My valuation model assumes a $500M award, 650 million shares in issue at the relevant time, £1=$1.7, 30% going to Calunius and a reduction of 20% for enforcement.

It's just a model though so others are free to adopt their own!

DYOR. GLA.

[edgein] 08/10/2015 13:56

Tis now curry 4.3 v 4.3

Regards,
Ed.

[currypasty] 08/10/2015 13:51

my level 2 says its in auction.. is that right ?

[the stigologist] 08/10/2015 13:50

Lunchtime so you'd think the MM's would try to keep a lid on it. Maybe RAB have stopped picking up the phone.

You'll have to gap it over 5.25p so Darwin can convert some warrants :-p

[wallyjumblat] 08/10/2015 13:43

Wilfy,
good post and I suppose it depends on the amount awarded as to which path we should take, your 20% would be spot on if it were 1B but not 100M if you get my drift.

[wilfy75] 08/10/2015 13:34

DRH is clearly trying to depress the share price. One point (and only one) which bears some thought is enforcement. Some more recent joiners to the board will have missed the previous discussions on this subject.

Assuming that we receive an award then either (1) Uzbekistan pays, (2) we enforce the award or (3) we sell the right to enforce the award to a company specialising in this. Taking these in turn.

(1) Uzbekistan may decide simply to pay for a number of reasons such as (a) the fact that if they don't then the World Bank will get involved, make their borrowings more expensive etc; (b) not doing so underscores their unfriendliness to inward investors; (c) they may negotiate a discounted amount for a prompt settlement without forcing us through enforcement proceedings;

(2) the appropriate legal provision here is the 1958 NY Convention which provides for arbitral awards to be enforced in most countries around the world (including Uzbekistan), in addition, since the award would be made in France, EU law allows for easy enforcement proceedings to be commenced anywhere in the EU - I've been involved in quite a few of these and they can be very effective. The Yukos arbitration award is an interesting one to follow - here is a recent article detailing what is happening there: - note, of course, that Russia is far less susceptible that lesser countries to enforcement proceedings. Here is a good recent article by a leading law firm:

(3) sell the award - clearly this would mean a discount to the award, but would also likely mean instant payment. This potential was expressly referenced at the recent AGM.

Others may take a different approach but I factor in a 20% discount in my valuation model for the costs / uncertainty around enforcement.

[dorset64] 08/10/2015 13:08

Play time will be over soon & he'll be back in class.

[skez13] 08/10/2015 13:06

GS time to spray the Troll spray

[tivoliworldgaming] 08/10/2015 13:04

You cant fault the conservative goverment.
For me I made money from my Sainsburys long because they are excellent for big companys. Also I think over the years they have increased the amount you can earn from shares before you have to pay tax.

[deanroberthunt] 08/10/2015 13:03

and if the country of UXBEK says "sod off", what we going do, get Cameron to invade!

[deanroberthunt] 08/10/2015 13:02

August 2011

4 more years boyz, 4 more years....

[skez13] 08/10/2015 13:01

Deano you sound very butthurt..

[skez13] 08/10/2015 13:01

skez13
8 Oct'15 - 11:54 - 25285 of 25337 2 0 edit


hehe

the Short termers hopped it 2 days ago and are now looking in again feeling a little sicky?



expect some bashing!

[deanroberthunt] 08/10/2015 13:00

wasn't this 90p once ?

[the stigologist] 08/10/2015 12:59

dean we can tell you have been hurt by Darwin, they do usually prey on weak mug punters in weak AIM stocks

but Darwin have their uses, in this case for the benefit of long term investors and OXUS Darwin will have screwed some mug punter traders stupid enough to sell to them rather than buy from them at 3.3p

[deanroberthunt] 08/10/2015 12:58

LOL..we are confident of winning the Arb....against UZBEK !!

[deanroberthunt] 08/10/2015 12:57

be like taking the Conservative Government to court for paying tax..

[deanroberthunt] 08/10/2015 12:56

THE FACTS ARE:

1. Forget the Arb, it's a nailed on going nowhere dead loss
2. Darwin are not positive for the sp

ends