Oxford Nanopore Technolo... Share Discussion Threads

[74tom] 09/1/2024 11:29

How do they expect anyone to believe the medium term numbers if they can't forecast 4 months in advance? Prudence has to be the number one rule of plc forecasting, building in buffers to account for potential weakness in Chinese demand etc should be a given. To miss the top of the range by £14m / ~8% at that range suggests someone would prefer to kick the can down the road rather than face up to reality... The same can be said for medium term guidance. IMO they need a new CFO pronto.

[alanhay99] 09/1/2024 11:24

Not surprising really. Guidance in revenue growth was revised from between 16 and 30pc to between 18 and 25pc in September 23 and here we are 4 months later with an expected 15pc.

My break even here of 270p suddenly seems a long way off.

[viscount1] 09/1/2024 10:35

Well the market hates the trading update.

[takeiteasy] 09/1/2024 07:29

Material associated revenue is anticipated to pull through with consumables sales in FY24 and future periods. - for those who follow this firm more closely, how confident are you on this assumption, how consistent has prior guidance been - trying to understand this firm better

[bamboo2] 09/1/2024 07:03

Pretty much on target.

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Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc

FY23 trading update



09 January 2024



Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc (LSE: ONT) ("Oxford Nanopore" or the "Group"), the company delivering a new generation of nanopore-based molecular sensing technology, today provides a trading update ahead of reporting its full-year 2023 results on 6 March.

FY23 financial performance

The Group expects to report LSRT revenue for the 12 months ended 31 December 2023 of approximately £169 million (FY22: £146.8 million), representing year-on-year growth of approximately 15% on a reported basis and 15% on a constant currency basis. Underlying LSRT revenue growth, excluding revenue from Emirati Genome Program ("EGP") and COVID-19 sequencing, is expected to be approximately 39% on a constant currency basis. Strong performance across the broader customer base in FY23 was driven by consumables[1] sales, which accounted for approximately 75% of revenue.

Underlying revenue growth in the second half is expected to be approximately 32%, impacted by slower than expected ramp up of certain new S3 customers. Expected revenue from these customers in FY23 will now fall into FY24. In addition, there was some slow-down in growth in China and in the Middle East following issuance of the recent US semiconductor trade rule further regulating sales of advanced AI semiconductors. Product development plans within 2024 include updates that are expected to mitigate this headwind.

In addition to financial reporting, there was other evidence of market traction and disruption. For example, the Group leased or sold more than 700 PromethION 2 Solos (P2 Solo) in FY23; Oxford Nanopore's most recently launched product represents a new market area of affordable, accessible and high output sequencing. Material associated revenue is anticipated to pull through with consumables sales in FY24 and future periods.



Emirati Genome Program update

The Group has signed an agreement to replace and supersede the existing purchase agreement it has with G42 Laboratories LLC ("G42") in support of the EGP. The new agreement will provide greater flexibility to achieve the programme objectives and reflects the parties' desire to refocus on clinical uses of the platform, that can utilise the platform's unique benefits of richer and faster data. G42 and Oxford Nanopore have agreed to collaborate to leverage the richer data and speed of Oxford Nanopore's technology in areas of unmet clinical need such as developmental disorders, rare human genetic diseases and neonatal intensive care.

The EGP contract, originally announced on 9 November 2021 with a total value of approximately $68 million over a three-year period, has generated revenues of approximately $43.5 million to date, including amounts payable in relation to the amended contract. The new agreement will remove the outstanding purchase commitment from the original agreement and extends the expiration date until 31 December 2026. EGP revenue in 2024 and beyond is not anticipated to be a material portion of revenue and as such, the Group will cease reporting EGP revenue separately following FY23 results.

Revenue related to the EGP in 2023 (under the original and revised agreement) was approximately £12 million, in-line with guidance.

Excluding EGP, the Group's gross margin in FY23 would have been expected to be more than 57%, in-line with guidance. However, as a result of the agreement with G42, the Group's FY23 gross margin is expected to be in the range 53 to 55%. Gross margin in future periods is not expected to be affected by this amendment.

Medium-term Outlook

All medium-term (FY26) targets are unchanged:



The Group continues to expect underlying revenue growth of more than 30% per annum on a constant currency basis, consistent with the Group's recent performance.



The Group's medium-term gross margin target of greater than 65% for FY26 is also unchanged. Margin expansion is expected to be driven primarily by operational improvements already underway and/or planned including improved manufacturing processes, recycling of electrical components and automation.



The Group continues to target adjusted EBITDA breakeven by the end of 2026. This will be achieved through revenue growth and margin expansion, detailed above, and disciplined operating expenditure.





[ENDS]

[edwardt] 08/1/2024 16:09

pac bio numbers above consensus...

[bamboo2] 07/1/2024 19:06

Looking back to the half year '23 figures, released on 06 September 2023, I'm sure anyone who was watching the presentation will remember the moment it became clear that analysts who were present decided that management guidance was not to be believed.

These are the basic forecasts...

"FY23 Underlying LSRT revenue growth, excluding COVID sequencing and the EGP, is expected to be more than 40% on a constant currency basis."

"We expect full year 2023 LSRT revenue growth of 18-25% on a constant currency basis..."

We'll find out on Tuesday.

Note 2022 FY LSRT revenue was £146.8m therefore we should be looking at between £173.224m and £183.5m

[bamboo2] 07/1/2024 12:48

Header updated.

Let me know of any typo's/errata/requests etc.

[eeza] 03/1/2024 07:10

RNS
"Oxford Nanopore to Present at 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference

3 January 2024

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc (LSE: ONT) ("Oxford Nanopore"), the company delivering a new generation of nanopore-based molecular sensing technology, will participate in the 42nd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference at the Westin St. Francis Hotel, San Francisco, California, USA.



Gordon Sanghera, Chief Executive Officer, will present at 10.30am PST (6.30pm GMT) on Tuesday 9 January 2024, followed by a Question & Answer session at approximately 10.50am PST (6.50pm GMT)."

[eeza] 02/1/2024 13:30

New year.

Same old.

[bamboo2] 29/12/2023 11:49

Top 10 highlights from 2023
Fri 29th December 2023

As we approach this year’s end, we wanted to take a moment to reflect and celebrate some of the remarkable moments that have defined our year. In this blog, we’ll be exploring our top 10 highlights of 2023:

[kooba] 28/12/2023 21:45

Interesting tweet for followers https://x.com/ewanbirney/status/1740438963738001536?s=61&t=s79RLRddG_Gfl7VpUZvZpQ

[bamboo2] 20/12/2023 09:20

The fast and furious contamination detection for T-cell therapy
6 DEC 2023 WRITTEN BY EMMA HALL (DIGITAL EDITOR)

full article.


Researchers from the Critical Analytics for Manufacturing Personalized-Medicine (CAMP) Interdisciplinary Research Group at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) have unveiled an innovative method for swiftly detecting contaminants in T-cell cultures within a mere 24 hours.

This innovation, detailed in a recently published paper in Microbiology Spectrum, combines advanced long-read nanopore sequencing and machine learning to significantly expedite and enhance the sterility testing process.

Traditional sterility testing methods for T-cell cultures, while effective, have posed challenges for biopharmaceutical manufacturing. These methods are laborious and time-consuming, often taking up to 14 days to detect the presence of bacteria and fungi. SMART’s novel method, utilizing cutting-edge technology such as third-generation nanopore long-read sequencing and machine learning algorithms, seeks to address these challenges by differentiating between clean and contaminated samples rapidly and accurately within a single day.

This breakthrough holds immense promise in the realm of cell therapies, especially for treatments like chimeric antigen receptor T-cells (CAR-T) used to combat blood-related cancers. As living medicines cannot undergo sterilization, ensuring the microbial safety of cell therapy products is of paramount importance.

James Strutt, Senior Postdoctoral Associate at SMART CAMP and first author of the paper, emphasized the practical applications of the discovery: “it offers faster product validation for biopharmaceutical manufacturers, reducing downtime and potentially accelerating product-to-market timelines. These advancements hold significant promise for the biopharmaceutical industry, as they not only enhance quality control but also improve overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness, ultimately benefiting patients by ensuring the safety and reliability of cell therapy products.”

Presented at several conferences including the 22nd Annual European Conference on Computational Biology in Lyon, France (23–27 July 2023), the research marks a pivotal step towards more efficient and sensitive sterility assessments, offering a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners alike.

The SMART team is gearing up to integrate the novel T-cell sterility test into their processes, aiming to enhance accuracy further. Future research will focus on extending the method’s detection capabilities to viruses, aligning with SMART’s overarching goal of swiftly and accurately identifying sample contamination. This scientific leap not only promises safer cell therapy treatments for patients but also signifies a major stride towards more efficient and cost-effective biopharmaceutical manufacturing.

[bamboo2] 20/12/2023 08:51

ONT is ideally positioned to lead the world in Metagenomics. Air monitoring is one aspect of this. Afaik, this can be carried out in real time, or on a snapshot basis.

There are dozens of applications.
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[bamboo2] 19/12/2023 14:25

19 December 2023

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc

Appoints Two Non-Executive Directors

Oxford Nanopore Technologies plc (LSE: ONT) ("Oxford Nanopore" or the "Group"), the company delivering a new generation of nanopore-based molecular sensing technology, is pleased to announce that Dr Sarah Fortune and Dr Heather Preston will be joining the Group as Non-Executive Directors with effect from 19 December 2023. Sarah Gordon Wild and Wendy Becker, both non-executive directors of the Company, announced their retirement from Board, with effect from today and at the conclusion of the AGM in 2024, respectively.

As a Professor of Immunology and Infectious Diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, Dr Sarah Fortune brings deep expertise in genomic diagnostics and multi-omics approaches to infectious disease, including at the intersection of human genetics. Her world-leading research has focused on understanding how Tuberculosis (TB) mutates to become drug resistant using a combination of single cell, genetic, and genomic approaches, including nanopore sequencing. In 2019, she led one of three labs awarded funding by the US National Institutes of Health to establish a new center for immunology research to accelerate progress in TB vaccine development - work that remains ongoing. Oxford Nanopore will draw on Sarah's rich experience as the company seeks to develop more sequencing-based applications in the clinical space, including its first sequencing-based test for drug-resistant TB.

Sarah holds a Doctor of Medicine from Columbia University and a Bachelor of Science in biology from Yale University.

Heather joins the board at a time when Oxford Nanopore's platform and its latest Q20+ chemistry have delivered profound developments in system performance, including accuracy and data yield, positioning it for ambitious growth. She brings more than 30 years of experience in healthcare, as a scientist, physician, McKinsey management consultant and long-time investor in biotech and the life sciences, most recently as a Managing Partner of Pivotal BioVentures based in San Francisco. She has been a director of more than 18 private and public technology-based healthcare companies, where she was involved in designing and implementing effective scaling strategies. Oxford Nanopore will draw on her expertise as it looks to deliver long-term growth and shareholder value. Heather currently sits on the Boards of Oxford Biomedica plc, Oxford Science Enterprises plc and Azura Opthalmics.

Heather holds a Doctor of Medicine from the University of Oxford and a Bachelor of Science degree in biochemistry from St Bartholomew's Hospital Medical School at the University of London.

Sarah Gordon Wild, a non-executive director of the Company and the non-executive responsible for workforce engagement, will retire from the Oxford Nanopore Board with effect from today, having served for nine years. Kate Priestman will succeed Sarah as the non-executive director responsible for workforce engagement. Wendy Becker, a non-executive director, has informed the Board that she will not stand for re-election at the next AGM but will remain a committed supporter of the Company.

Duncan Tatton-Brown, Chair of Oxford Nanopore, said : "We are extremely pleased to welcome Sarah and Heather on the board as Non-Executive Directors of Oxford Nanopore. These are two leaders in their respective fields: Sarah's understanding of the sector, the technology and Oxford Nanopore's aspirational markets position her as an ideal resource to support the company's move into the clinical space. Heather's incredible breadth of experience, in addition to her understanding of the investor mindset, will provide a valuable voice on the board as the company looks to scale whilst delivering shareholder value. I would also like to thank our outgoing non-executive directors, Sarah and Wendy, for their outstanding support and contribution during their tenure."

Sarah Fortune, incoming Non-Executive Director of Oxford Nanopore, said: " Oxford Nanopore's technology is best-in-class - beautiful, high-performing and unique in its distributed model. I'm excited to contribute by helping the company achieve its vision of distributed sequencing, both in resource-limited locations and across hospitals and other healthcare settings. This is a complex opportunity that will require engagement from multiple stakeholder groups, and I also look forward to supporting the company by applying my passion for bringing people together across disciplines to enable Oxford Nanopore's ambitious clinical vision."

Heather Preston, incoming Non-Executive Director of Oxford Nanopore, said: "This is an exciting time in Oxford Nanopore's growth journey. The company has done a phenomenal job in establishing the technology in the genomics research market and is now at the point of being able to scale in a significant way. I look forward to contributing to this next phase by offering a strategic sounding board to support the company's decision-making, prioritisation and identification of the most effective ways to grow and deliver value."

Gordon Sanghera, Chief Executive Officer of Oxford Nanopore, said : "Sarah and Heather bring substantial experience to support Oxford Nanopore's next phase of growth in complementary ways. Sarah's depth of knowledge in human genetics and infectious disease, in addition to her clinical background, will be critical to us as we create new opportunities for sequencing in clinical and applied markets. Heather's expertise both as a clinician and company builder will help us prioritise effectively for growth and continue to deliver value. I also want to thank outgoing non-executive directors Sarah and Wendy for their time, insight and guidance during their tenure on the board. We appreciate their significant contributions and wish them well on their next chapter."

[bamboo2] 17/12/2023 09:07

Someone has put considerable effort into making this website a compelling read.

[brucie5] 14/12/2023 12:57

So I can confirm, yesterday was a good time to buy. And I didn't.
But i did point out that at 1.75 it's reached the quarter price to peak where we might reasonably expect a battle to be fought.
An example of where this failed is OXB, where I became briefly interested at 4.00, only to sell as it fell further, most recently to 1.70. It now looks like regaining the £2 level, which is half of the one quarter level; suggestive perhaps, on decent unfolding of the story, of a leap back to the £4 level.
OXB and ONT have some areas of commonality: both involved life sciences with share price inordinately affected by COVID; neither profit making, but with cash runways to B/E. Both seeking to grow revenues by about 30% in order to achieve this.

[bamboo2] 14/12/2023 08:39

74tom, thanks for the recent posts.

I assumed the LAT shares were issued to management during the flotation, and that the three year period started October 2021. June 2024 knocks four months off this assumption. Do you have a link to this info?

I posted this assumption earlier in the thread, and would prefer readers to point out any inaccuracies asap!

Edit, found this from FCA, page 178, original LAT shares issued 22/6/2021.

[brucie5] 13/12/2023 16:44

Good post, 74tom. And according to my reading on this bb. -correct me if I'm wrong- there is only one company that does it better than ONT, namely Illumina, though with attendant issues of cost complexity discussed in the recent article. So in UK terms this is (pretty much)a world-beater in the huge and expanding market place of genome testing, in a wide variety of industries from health to agriculture.
So when is the price right?

Well I notice it's just passed 25% of peak point of 1.75p, which is always something I like to remain alert to, with a business that it patently not going bust any time soon - let alone growing revenues at 30% pa.

Or what am I getting wrong? I know: it keeps going down!
:(

[74tom] 13/12/2023 15:39

In terms of recent reference points, I think Olink's acquisition by Thermo back in October for $3.1b / 16x FY23 revenue is a good guide (they held $143m net cash at point of takeover, so paid a touch under 16x EV/Sales.



Using that transaction as a benchmark, 16x FY23 revenues would value ONT at £3.2b, however we also have £500m cash, so on an EV basis they would need to pay £3.7b (£4.30 per share)

That gives >150% upside from current levels, however the reality is ONT is almost certainly worth at least a multiple of Olink. It certainly feels as if there is a considerable margin of safety down here & asymmetric risk vs reward.

I think US tax loss selling is driving some of the recent decline, if so then we could get a really exciting opportunity to add at all time lows before an inevitable reversal into the new year.

[74tom] 13/12/2023 15:38

The "LAT" (Limited anti-takeover) / golden shares expire on 9th Jun 2024, so if we are undervalued by anywhere close to what most of us suspect then the current share price is a gift with a 6 month time horizon. Being short after that point is going to be fraught with danger IMO.

[eeza] 13/12/2023 13:27

Golden share removes market discipline from the BOD. Without the Golden share these would be US-owned and valued x 4, imo.

Free ticket for shorters.

[leoboy] 13/12/2023 12:55

bamboo2 / eeza re Golden Shares i take it that these are the Anti-Takeover Shares
referred to in the prospectus ? Can you point me to any more detail on these please ?
Thank you ...

ok guys i think i see this now on page 144 of AR 2022 !

[bamboo2] 12/12/2023 18:57

Shaping the Future of Genomic Medicine

Recent innovations and initiatives are helping to expand the reach of genomic medicine.

[bamboo2] 12/12/2023 18:35

eeza, agree, it's a bit lowering to the soul to see this drifting on low volume, but I've been in this through the IPGroup holding for over five years now, and intend to continue.