Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[pharmaboy3] 25/10/2022 20:51

Fascinating article by our hero,Carl JuneHTTps://www.biopharmadive.com/news/carl-june-in-vivo-car-t-capstan-tmunity/633980/

[gigabit] 25/10/2022 17:59

Pop over to the Sense and Sensibility thread. Plenty of thoughts, good questions, optimism tempered with reality and a deep understanding of OXB's situation based on facts.

[dominiccummings] 25/10/2022 15:57

I think we've reached capitulation.
No thoughts.
No questions.
No optimism.
Complete lack of understanding.

[dominiccummings] 25/10/2022 12:27

They'll be expecting a new set of options, based on current low price, and to look 'reasonable' there will be a lot more of them...

[squeamish1] 25/10/2022 09:28

Curious the directors here exercised nil paid options recently and immediately sold all of them. Typical practice is to at least pretend you believe in the company and only sell enough to meet tax liabilities.

[dominiccummings] 25/10/2022 09:24

The ONLY fact you can rely on is the market completely losing its mind

[gigabit] 25/10/2022 06:52

The same analysts who, last year, forecast that the share price would be in the GBP 15 TO 20 range now?How credible are they? I deal on the basis of facts not wild conjecture.

[dominiccummings] 24/10/2022 17:18

Miniscule profit is forecast for 2023, substantial thereafter Gigabit. Do keep up!

(Analysts forecast)

[gigabit] 24/10/2022 16:41

Of course the company could use the profits it has built up to meet a shortfall.

But according to the most recent company audited accounts accumulated profits stand at -165,806,000 GBP. Most people would refer to that as a massive accumulated loss and one that will grow further this year, as advised by the company in the interim results statements. Hard to see how that could be used to offset a shortfall.

[gareth jones] 24/10/2022 09:06

Over 12K shares traded by 9am, “800” being the favored number. Not bad couple of trading days. Perhaps “the end of the beginning” of our decline? A bit of news and we may have to re-study Hooke’s Law.

[harry s truman] 22/10/2022 21:21

News, Policy, & Profiles
Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics: News September 2022
Ronald Ellis &Adam Weiss
Article: 2136456 | Published online: 21 Oct 2022



Malaria vaccine 80% efficacious after one year

The malaria vaccine R21 demonstrated 80% efficacy after 1 year of the initial course in a randomized, double-blind Phase 2 trial involving 400 children in Burkina Faso. R21, which is administered with the saponin-based Matrix-M adjuvant (Novavax), was administered in three doses plus two dosage levels of a booster. The efficacy was 70% in the low-dosage group.

Malaria is one of the most significant public-health concerns, with around a quarter billion cases and 600 K deaths annually. No effective vaccine with lasting effect has been developed thus far.

[badger60] 22/10/2022 10:09

It beggars belief that OXB can be so gung-ho about issuing free share options which can be immediately converted and sold into the market......and gifting 50k UK to certain US staff for the purpose of buying company shares, which have to be held for a year before being sold.

[badger60] 22/10/2022 09:20

Hats of to gigabit, posting on the Sense and Sensibility thread, who obviously has an in depth understanding of the financial plight of OXB right across the board.


Cummings the cretin doesn't seem to have the first clue as to the severity of imposition on the OXB(group) that the USD 50 Mio loan places on the company, as well as highlighting how strapped and non generative that OXB is for earning cash. Cummings is banging on about(sic) "and OBX .......as you probably know any shortfalls will be covered by OXB profits"... ("I note that Kymriah sales are well down)....the only profit I see is 5 Mio+ pa for Oaktree interest.
The 20% Homology put option without doubt will be exercised......capped at 55.5Mio quid.....I suppose being the reason that OXB have taken the option to borrow another USD 25 Mio from Oaktree.
I liked the one about the Homology returning 19 Mio to OXB and then exercising their 20% option at x5.5 (x19 Mio) revenue. ( luckily it's capped a 55.5 Mio quid) Who fell for that one?
Cummings, as usual, is unable to proffer a meaningful reply, probably because he doesn't understand any of it with his head buried in the sand..
Anyway, the sale/leaseback (58 Mio according to 'arry) has yet come to nought..... likewise Diggle is struggling with his dog kennels and coiled spring idea, which I find surprising as he most definitely has far more expertise in those areas than being a biotechnology fund manager.

[marcusl2] 21/10/2022 21:43

“Up to now, typical CAR T cells have had only minor impacts in treating patients’ solid tumors. One major issue has been that although single-chain CD3-based CAR T can provide an initial anti-tumor response, they rapidly become ‘exhausted’, losing their anti-tumor function,” Kim said.

He explained that typical single-chain CAR T are comprised of ‘chimeras’ of three or four proteins recombined into a single multifunctional entity. It’s this “unnaturally formed single-chain “that causes typical CAR T to undergo continual nonspecific activation, Kim said. And, it’s because of this continued activation that CAR T cells are unable to “shut down to rest and recover to fight another day.”

Kim noted that Verismo’s technology creates a physical separation of the tumor-binding and the T cell activating signals that work outside of the CD3 pathway. As a result, Verismo’s KIR-CAR are able to fully activate upon tumor encounter, as well as rest down and recover between rounds of tumor attacks.

“This stimulation and recovery cycle is more reflective of the natural cellular immune response, and results in KIR-CAR treatment of solid tumors in preclinical models where single-chain CAR T cells fail,” he added.

[dominiccummings] 21/10/2022 17:01

The exercise of the option is almost covered by the present funding arrangements and as you probably well know any shortfall will be more than covered by the company's profits (unless they decide to make a further acquisition and fund by loans of course). See a number of analysts' projections.
(and if you haven't got any analysts' reports, get one).

[gareth jones] 21/10/2022 16:39

Spent my 2.5 minutes, very good Phase 2 trial results.

[marcusl2] 21/10/2022 16:31

Tremendous H.

[gigabit] 21/10/2022 14:06

I'm not quite sure what case it is you are resting. The option can be exercised in 29 months from now. It is just fortuitous, maybe, that the loan has a 48 month term provided that covenants are not breached before that time.

Homology is a cash burner and, by its own admission, will continue to be so. There is therefore no possibility that the option will not be exercised.

[dominiccummings] 21/10/2022 13:22

I draw your attention to the following clause, and rest my case.

"at any time following the third anniversary of completion of the Transaction"

[gigabit] 21/10/2022 12:29

This is shaky ground. The information provided (which I have included below) formed the basis on which investors were invited to participate in the share placing. Was significant further information being deliberately withheld and potential investors misled? Surely you are not suggesting that.

Incidentally I see that the option price is actually 5.5x revenue so I underestimated the cost by 10% although there is a cap at GBP 55.5 million which, no doubt, you will find very reassuring!

Pursuant to the terms of the LLC Agreement, at any time following the third anniversary of completion of the Transaction, Oxford Biomedica US will have the option to purchase from Homology all of Homology's membership interests in Oxford Biomedica Solutions (the "Call Option") and Homology will have the option to require Oxford Biomedica US or Oxford Biomedica Solutions to purchase all of Homology's membership interests in Oxford Biomedica Solutions (the "Put Option"). The purchase price payable by Oxford Biomedica US or Oxford Biomedica Solutions on exercise of the Call Option or the Put Option will be equal to the amount Homology would be entitled to receive upon a liquidation of Oxford Biomedica Solutions assuming all of the assets of Oxford Biomedica Solutions' AAV Manufacturing and Innovation Business are sold for a purchase price based on a valuation equivalent to a multiple of 5.5 times the revenue of Oxford Biomedica Solutions over the twelve months prior to the date of exercise. In addition, the maximum purchase price payable by Oxford Biomedica US or Oxford Biomedica Solutions on exercise of the Call Option or the Put Option will be capped at US$74.1 million (GBP55.4 million). Additionally, upon a change of control of Homology, Oxford Biomedica US has the right to purchase all (but not less than all) of Homology's interests in Oxford Biomedica Solutions for the same purchase price payable on exercise of the Call Option or the Put Option, except that, on a change of control of Homology occurring within one year of completion of the Transaction, only Oxford Biomedica Solutions' revenue from the date of completion of the Transaction to the closing date of the change of control transaction will be included in the calculation of the purchase price. The purchase price payable for Homology's interests in Oxford Biomedica Solutions is subject to the same maximum price as described above.

[dominiccummings] 21/10/2022 11:55

Do you really think they are stupid gigabit, or are you trying to sow doubts? You would have to see the complete contract to know the ins and outs of how the deal is structured to create a win win for both parties.
It was made pretty clear that the 'put' was a part of the deal that would/could be exercised at the time that Homology expected to need more cash... 3 or 4 years away.
No. I have not seen the contract either, so I could be wrong, but I have more faith in the management than you, and understood why the information given out at the time of the deal stressed just the points I make above.

[gigabit] 21/10/2022 11:49

It is just one aspect of the deal that is so poisonous and, I believe, is a major component to the share price collapse since it was announced. OXB could potentially hold back revenue but would have to do that for up to three years and the losses would be piling up. Either way it makes no sense.