Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 18/4/2024 19:29

Many thanks for the full text from Stifel Mirabeau.

Pretty certain that NN just want Catalent for security of supply on what might be the most lucrative prescription drug ever. I'm not saying that their foundation won't invest more in OXB (they have huge windfalls and need a home for it) but these are unrelated strings on their bow (imho).

[mirabeau] 18/4/2024 18:47

'In a word, Novo Holdings is betting on the CDMO and the outsourcing model.

Catalent, Søderberg says, is "a leading partner to some of the most innovative biopharma companies in the world, and will benefit as the biopharma industry launches new and exciting technologies." (emphasis mine)

Next, he reminds us what successful investment firms do: add resources.

As a “partner” of Catalent, Søderberg tells me, Novo Holdings will bring its “expertise and track record of investing in high quality life sciences businesses, and looks forward to supporting the company’s stakeholders in the years ahead – especially employees and customers as they work to develop new products to benefit patients.”

Who are those other “high quality life sciences businesses?"

You can find a (long, and frankly, impressive) list here. To name a few (including other service providers): Anthos Therapeutics; Claris Bio; Evosep; Mission Bio; Oxford Biomedica.

We can expect, then, the investments that will keep Catalent on (or propel it to, depending on your direct experiences) the cutting-edge of science, technology, and delivering outsourcing services.'

[brucie5] 18/4/2024 17:54

Hooray for Stifel - a more modest target than the other we've been hearing about. Nevertheless, today's action brings us back to a cat's whisker of the 200WMA of 2.10. I think there's a question now as to whether the market will wait for good news ahead of a BO, or anticipate good news on the assumption of a BO. The chart could hardly be more primed for action, short of actually breaking up. Therein the market needs to make up its own mind.

However, £3 would see the chart in unambiguously bullish territory, since the SMA stands at 2.50, with resistance pretty much at £3 and £4.

I hold on that expectation.

[mirabeau] 18/4/2024 17:40

'On Thursday, Stifel, a financial services firm, upgraded Oxford Biomedica shares from Hold to Buy, while also increasing the price target to GBP3.00 from the previous GBP2.80. Oxford Biomedica, listed on the London Stock Exchange as OXB:LN and over-the-counter as OXBDF, is recognized for its proficiency in the cell and gene therapy sector, particularly as a viral vector manufacturer.

The upgrade reflects Stifel's view that Oxford Biomedica's established presence as a contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) positions it well within the rapidly expanding cell and gene therapy market.

The firm acknowledges Oxford Biomedica's strong intellectual property, expertise, and manufacturing capabilities as key advantages that could allow the company to secure a substantial share of the outsourced viral vector manufacturing market in the foreseeable future.

Stifel's optimism is further bolstered by findings from a recent bioprocess survey, which supports a positive mid-to-long term outlook for Oxford Biomedica. Despite acknowledging the challenges faced by the company in the last year and a half, Stifel suggests that the current market valuation does not fully recognize Oxford Biomedica's potential, prompting the upgrade in the stock's rating and target price.

The new target price of GBP3.00 represents Stifel's confidence in Oxford Biomedica's potential to grow and succeed in the competitive field of cell and gene therapy manufacturing. The firm's positive stance is a sign of expected growth and value in Oxford Biomedica's business operations and market position.'

[dominiccummings] 18/4/2024 17:33

Those days were gone 15 years ago Steeplejack. IT systems and latterly AI are the fashion now.

[takeiteasy] 18/4/2024 17:28

this share can move so quickly - not one to trade for me but ltbh simply not good enough to time the in an outs - well done if you are!

[steeplejack] 18/4/2024 17:24

Having worked in the City,i can't say i've come across investment analysts that i would describe as 'spivs'.Investment analysts are specialists who normally cover a select number of stocks on a sector basis listed on a particular exchange.In fact their coverage is invariably very concentrated.A drug analyst covering stocks listed in the UK will cover the likes of Astra Zeneca,Glaxo etc but he probably won't cover more than 10 companies and less depending on the number of sector constituents.He will advise the firm's book,liaise with the firm's marketing department who advise institutional customers and get involved in corporate matters as required.He will invariably be a graduate from the likes of Oxbridge,LSE etc.His degree might be useful to the understanding of the drug sector ie biochemistry perhaps or he might have previous industry experience.He will be expected to have professional qualifications probably CISI.

[icejelly] 18/4/2024 15:25

I never press 'view full message' of Harry's posts. We know there will be lots to follow. But I could see 'amount of time to cover an awful lot of shares'. Try reordering it to 'cover a lot of awful shares'. Same notes, just in a different order.

[harry s truman] 18/4/2024 15:08

Personally I've never met one Dom, but I'd agree they have a limited amount of time to cover an awful lot of shares, so the safest route must be to go with the herd and take a deeper look twice per year at the results.

The headline news a week on Monday is going to be the loss which we all know about. If that causes any distress in the market / share price then I would be very surprised as it's history now and OXB have been very clear about it.

For those who believe the OXB story then the future as set out by Stuart is :-

2024 EBITDA breakeven of some description.
2025 Record all time revenue for OXB.
2026 New record all time revenue + record all time earnings.

As forecasts go that's not a bad one is it? Shares sell on future earnings.

The problem is of course that our recent history is the nightmare of our biggest contract ending early whilst everything else had been held back by covid.

So...

Loss, Bigger Loss, Rough Breakeven, Profit, Record Profit.

We're currently into month 4 of year 3 on this path, with a lot of people yet to be convinced. At some point the scales fall from their eyes and a big name contract would certainly help with that.

[dominiccummings] 18/4/2024 11:54

They are all a bunch of spivs that are by and large not given time to 'analyse' aren't they?

[harry s truman] 18/4/2024 11:46

Surely one of these situations here Dom where it's something but you can't help but wonder what their thinking is.

So they were "buy" but lowered to "hold" back in August (coincided with Homology halting everything but may not have been the sole reason) and now 8 months later they have gone back to "buy" literally days before the results.

Wouldn't you think they would just wait for the results? I suppose there's a possibility here that after ABL + all the new work won they see themselves as quite out of step and so this now and then a full note on the results gives them an opportunity to sneak back into positivity with two notes in quick succession rather than one hasty "about turn"?

[dominiccummings] 18/4/2024 10:39

Stifel raise OXB to a 'Buy' £3.00

[harry s truman] 18/4/2024 09:46

Just a quick one on the same theme

According to the FT (might not be exact current holding) Liontrust Investment Partners LLP were recently 8.04m shares or 8.05% holder of OXB.

Yahoo today / Evening Standard yesterday :-



"Money pours out of Liontrust as investors quit UK shares"

So just to repeat, not an OXB problem but a market problem.

What OXB have to do here is make themselves buck this trend. They can't do anything about huge investment companies occasionally selling 5% of everything they hold to meet redemptions, but what they can do is make themselves a compelling case for people who can invest (which is basically to continue to hold their current path - no speculation on news drugs and charge a big market handsomely for essential services).

I'll be very interested to see what all the insiders do once the results are announced and we have that little open period. I'm assuming that NN with their guy on the board will be counted as insiders and we know they are currently awash with cash from the magic pill for troughers.

[harry s truman] 17/4/2024 19:11

If any of us read the financial pages (any reasonable newspaper) then there are stories weekly of people of a certain age who have had enough and are cashing their pensions and calling it a day. Record pension fund withdrawals.

As many reasons as there are stories, but to name some I've read recently:-

1) Life change after covid. Paid to be at home, then paid to WFH. Now just doesn't want to go back to the office and pension pot is big enough so going early.

2) Much the same reasons, but additionally looking at the increasing tax take and wondering how on earth that effective top rate (63% apparently) is supposed to be any kind of incentive to work if you realistically have enough to walk away early.

3) Slightly controversial I know, but people who have had enough of working long hours to fund a certain lifestyle enjoyed by many.

4) Those who are looking at an almost certain labour government (who for the first time ever will come to power with cupboards in the treasury emptier than Labour normally leave) and wondering if the current pension rules will go at the first giveaway budget - i.e. get out whilst you can.

A generation of people in their 50s retiring early because they can (regardless of actual reason) is not just a disaster for the country with the tax & NI take, but every pension drawn is money that Prudential (or whoever) lose to a lump sum and an annuity.

When any fund is faced with redemptions then what can they do but sell shares?

680k today for OXB is more than 3x our normal volume (these days).

Slight consolation for me is that (on the small sample which is my watch list) when OXB is down then an awful lot of similar stocks are also red. I don't think this is OXB specific.

Going on OXB history I'm pretty hopeful that we are a week off the turning point. I say this simply on the evidence that when almost 2 years ago now, we reported the record revenues of 2021, we were battered by the news that the AZ contract was ending.

This really stuck with me that all the market is interested in is the year you are in and the one which follows. The one just closed is history which they bought / sold previously.

A week on Monday is the reverse of the 2021 results (presented in April 22) where we were going from record earnings and banked profit for '21 to a forecast loss in '22.

On the 29th Stuart is going to tell us that 2023 was £90m earnings and a big loss, but that 2024 is breakeven and 2025 is record ever earnings and a profit.

This of course excludes any big name unknowns (much speculated on here), which could change that significantly for the better.

[steeplejack] 17/4/2024 17:30

The simple fact is that there are more sellers than buyers :)


There’s a consensus here that the stock is good value.Frequently employed financial ratios confirm as much.My concern is whether the market gives a stuff.This is a thinly traded small cap.No marketmaker is going to retire early trading a few hundred thousand quids worth of OXB on a daily basis.Even a small specialist biotech fund might balk at OXBs lack of liquidity when it can select from a multitude of biotech opportunities listed on NASDAQ for example.So,its a question of whether OXB (despite having fallen like a stone over the last two years) might remain cheap ……either until it becomes so glaringly obvious that some corporate entity takes it over from under disinterested noses or ultimately the stock rerates.I’m perfectly happy to sit it out until one or other eventuality occurs.

[pharmaboy3] 17/4/2024 17:16

Believe it,even if we're not making money!HTTps://twitter.com/UrnovFyodor/status/1780629561090400743?s=19

[dominiccummings] 17/4/2024 16:24

Honestly. How can a company like this be worth 10% less in 1 week?

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 16:15

Harry S Truman17 Apr '24 - 16:10 - 7541 of 7541
0 0 0
Fortunately the next elections for thread morale officer aren't quite due yet.
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honestly? I don't think there'll be much of an opposition candidate.
;)

[harry s truman] 17/4/2024 16:10

Fortunately the next elections for thread morale officer aren't quite due yet.

We know there are sellers, and there have been sellers in some quantity since the beginning of August last year. We have heard several possible explanations of why, none of which related to (or identified) a specific problem with OXB's business. If there is bad news out there then we have yet to hear it. The single worst piece of news was the loss of Homology as lead AAV customer, but even for bears it's difficult to link Homology going out of this business as an OXB related problem.

As we are about to see / hear the presentation for the 2023 FY (where we all already have a very good idea of the financials), what about a quick recap of 2023's news:-

March - OXB confirms no exposure to SVB

April - 2022 FY results noting the last of the AZ vaccine work, but stressing 13 new programmes (including 3 AAV post period) meaning 30 programmes in progress.

June - The AGM and that explanation that news will now be accrued then updated, unless a particular partner wants to announce.

August - We announce that Cabaletta Bio were expanding their partnership with us to cover CABA-201 (so obviously Cabaletta wanted to announce that).

September - Interim Results. Now 41 client programmes (up from 30 in April). Forecasting rough breakeven EBITDA in 2023. We are buying ABL from IM for a cut price with shares at twice their face value.

December - Business Update. Reaffirmed on track for breakeven EBITDA in 2024 based on performance across all vectors. Reaffirmed 3 year annualised growth of 30% and doubling of revenue by 2026.

December - The post AGM update where senior staff agree to scale back their options in recognition of the potential for windfall gains.

And that was the year.

Post period in 2024:-

March - Annualised 3 year growth forecast is now better than 35% (from 30%) due to ABL bolt-on. Profit in 2025. Better than 20% EBITDA margin in 2026.

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 15:45

I posted this on the ONT board, where I've recently taken a position. But since it relates to OXB, I thought it might be of relevance. ONT has fallen fast and further than OXB, which I very much hope has found a base at long last. But nevertheless, there is always the chance that good results will not be enough, so I have taken a bit out of my overweight OXB to diversify into ONT. I think they're both casualties of a common malaise, but very possibly at the bottom. CWR, yet another, which good cash runway. As DC says - there are very probably few willing/able to buy even at these levels, unless by a strategic decision on behalf of a larger institution or corporate. That said, all they have to do is grow, according to schedule, and close in on the fast approaching BE. All three have great futures ahead of them, IMHO.

Mcap Revenues Rev Multiple

OXB 195 119 1.6

ONT 861 169 5

CWR 257 22 11

All figures from Stocko. I hold 1 & 2 in order of size; but not yet 3.

[marwalker] 17/4/2024 15:34

Great hopes here on the results I'm afraid I can't imagine how good they would have to be to fire up the share price in these tepid markets

[dominiccummings] 17/4/2024 14:05

"Anyone employed in financial institutions (and their spouses)has to seek permission to buy an equity like OXB from their compliance department"

A very good point steeplejack and one of a number of changes for the worst that have crept into our system unannounced.

[steeplejack] 17/4/2024 13:35

There’s a reasonable slug of stock on offer again today ie 25000 shares are on offer at a tad below 193p on quote and deal.

One can only hope that the analysts have been woefully amiss in monitoring OXBs recent progress and that the upcoming results will confirm substantial progress leading to a sharp rerating.Of course,you would hope that an analyst worth his salt would be able to discern progress on an ongoing basis rather than waiting for the ‘pitstop’; health check that biannual results provide.

Private clients that select individual stocks are becoming increasingly rare.Anyone employed in financial institutions (and their spouses)has to seek permission to buy an equity like OXB from their compliance department and are encouraged to purchase investments managed by third parties ie investment trusts,unit trusts and ETFs.It would be encouraging if a specialist fund decided to aggressively buy here.The lack of liquidity would then at least work in holder’s interests.

[pharmaboy3] 17/4/2024 07:53

Nice chart showing the development route of CAR-T in the US and EU HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/alliancerm_another-big-step-forward-for-car-t-cell-therapies-activity-7186036625582301185-H51Z?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android