Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 17/4/2024 19:11

If any of us read the financial pages (any reasonable newspaper) then there are stories weekly of people of a certain age who have had enough and are cashing their pensions and calling it a day. Record pension fund withdrawals.

As many reasons as there are stories, but to name some I've read recently:-

1) Life change after covid. Paid to be at home, then paid to WFH. Now just doesn't want to go back to the office and pension pot is big enough so going early.

2) Much the same reasons, but additionally looking at the increasing tax take and wondering how on earth that effective top rate (63% apparently) is supposed to be any kind of incentive to work if you realistically have enough to walk away early.

3) Slightly controversial I know, but people who have had enough of working long hours to fund a certain lifestyle enjoyed by many.

4) Those who are looking at an almost certain labour government (who for the first time ever will come to power with cupboards in the treasury emptier than Labour normally leave) and wondering if the current pension rules will go at the first giveaway budget - i.e. get out whilst you can.

A generation of people in their 50s retiring early because they can (regardless of actual reason) is not just a disaster for the country with the tax & NI take, but every pension drawn is money that Prudential (or whoever) lose to a lump sum and an annuity.

When any fund is faced with redemptions then what can they do but sell shares?

680k today for OXB is more than 3x our normal volume (these days).

Slight consolation for me is that (on the small sample which is my watch list) when OXB is down then an awful lot of similar stocks are also red. I don't think this is OXB specific.

Going on OXB history I'm pretty hopeful that we are a week off the turning point. I say this simply on the evidence that when almost 2 years ago now, we reported the record revenues of 2021, we were battered by the news that the AZ contract was ending.

This really stuck with me that all the market is interested in is the year you are in and the one which follows. The one just closed is history which they bought / sold previously.

A week on Monday is the reverse of the 2021 results (presented in April 22) where we were going from record earnings and banked profit for '21 to a forecast loss in '22.

On the 29th Stuart is going to tell us that 2023 was £90m earnings and a big loss, but that 2024 is breakeven and 2025 is record ever earnings and a profit.

This of course excludes any big name unknowns (much speculated on here), which could change that significantly for the better.

[steeplejack] 17/4/2024 17:30

The simple fact is that there are more sellers than buyers :)


There’s a consensus here that the stock is good value.Frequently employed financial ratios confirm as much.My concern is whether the market gives a stuff.This is a thinly traded small cap.No marketmaker is going to retire early trading a few hundred thousand quids worth of OXB on a daily basis.Even a small specialist biotech fund might balk at OXBs lack of liquidity when it can select from a multitude of biotech opportunities listed on NASDAQ for example.So,its a question of whether OXB (despite having fallen like a stone over the last two years) might remain cheap ……either until it becomes so glaringly obvious that some corporate entity takes it over from under disinterested noses or ultimately the stock rerates.I’m perfectly happy to sit it out until one or other eventuality occurs.

[pharmaboy3] 17/4/2024 17:16

Believe it,even if we're not making money!HTTps://twitter.com/UrnovFyodor/status/1780629561090400743?s=19

[dominiccummings] 17/4/2024 16:24

Honestly. How can a company like this be worth 10% less in 1 week?

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 16:15

Harry S Truman17 Apr '24 - 16:10 - 7541 of 7541
0 0 0
Fortunately the next elections for thread morale officer aren't quite due yet.
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honestly? I don't think there'll be much of an opposition candidate.
;)

[harry s truman] 17/4/2024 16:10

Fortunately the next elections for thread morale officer aren't quite due yet.

We know there are sellers, and there have been sellers in some quantity since the beginning of August last year. We have heard several possible explanations of why, none of which related to (or identified) a specific problem with OXB's business. If there is bad news out there then we have yet to hear it. The single worst piece of news was the loss of Homology as lead AAV customer, but even for bears it's difficult to link Homology going out of this business as an OXB related problem.

As we are about to see / hear the presentation for the 2023 FY (where we all already have a very good idea of the financials), what about a quick recap of 2023's news:-

March - OXB confirms no exposure to SVB

April - 2022 FY results noting the last of the AZ vaccine work, but stressing 13 new programmes (including 3 AAV post period) meaning 30 programmes in progress.

June - The AGM and that explanation that news will now be accrued then updated, unless a particular partner wants to announce.

August - We announce that Cabaletta Bio were expanding their partnership with us to cover CABA-201 (so obviously Cabaletta wanted to announce that).

September - Interim Results. Now 41 client programmes (up from 30 in April). Forecasting rough breakeven EBITDA in 2023. We are buying ABL from IM for a cut price with shares at twice their face value.

December - Business Update. Reaffirmed on track for breakeven EBITDA in 2024 based on performance across all vectors. Reaffirmed 3 year annualised growth of 30% and doubling of revenue by 2026.

December - The post AGM update where senior staff agree to scale back their options in recognition of the potential for windfall gains.

And that was the year.

Post period in 2024:-

March - Annualised 3 year growth forecast is now better than 35% (from 30%) due to ABL bolt-on. Profit in 2025. Better than 20% EBITDA margin in 2026.

[brucie5] 17/4/2024 15:45

I posted this on the ONT board, where I've recently taken a position. But since it relates to OXB, I thought it might be of relevance. ONT has fallen fast and further than OXB, which I very much hope has found a base at long last. But nevertheless, there is always the chance that good results will not be enough, so I have taken a bit out of my overweight OXB to diversify into ONT. I think they're both casualties of a common malaise, but very possibly at the bottom. CWR, yet another, which good cash runway. As DC says - there are very probably few willing/able to buy even at these levels, unless by a strategic decision on behalf of a larger institution or corporate. That said, all they have to do is grow, according to schedule, and close in on the fast approaching BE. All three have great futures ahead of them, IMHO.

Mcap Revenues Rev Multiple

OXB 195 119 1.6

ONT 861 169 5

CWR 257 22 11

All figures from Stocko. I hold 1 & 2 in order of size; but not yet 3.

[marwalker] 17/4/2024 15:34

Great hopes here on the results I'm afraid I can't imagine how good they would have to be to fire up the share price in these tepid markets

[dominiccummings] 17/4/2024 14:05

"Anyone employed in financial institutions (and their spouses)has to seek permission to buy an equity like OXB from their compliance department"

A very good point steeplejack and one of a number of changes for the worst that have crept into our system unannounced.

[steeplejack] 17/4/2024 13:35

There’s a reasonable slug of stock on offer again today ie 25000 shares are on offer at a tad below 193p on quote and deal.

One can only hope that the analysts have been woefully amiss in monitoring OXBs recent progress and that the upcoming results will confirm substantial progress leading to a sharp rerating.Of course,you would hope that an analyst worth his salt would be able to discern progress on an ongoing basis rather than waiting for the ‘pitstop’; health check that biannual results provide.

Private clients that select individual stocks are becoming increasingly rare.Anyone employed in financial institutions (and their spouses)has to seek permission to buy an equity like OXB from their compliance department and are encouraged to purchase investments managed by third parties ie investment trusts,unit trusts and ETFs.It would be encouraging if a specialist fund decided to aggressively buy here.The lack of liquidity would then at least work in holder’s interests.

[pharmaboy3] 17/4/2024 07:53

Nice chart showing the development route of CAR-T in the US and EU HTTps://www.linkedin.com/posts/alliancerm_another-big-step-forward-for-car-t-cell-therapies-activity-7186036625582301185-H51Z?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

[harry s truman] 16/4/2024 21:16

Very possibly Phil (and another excellent piece of sleuth work btw).

I've mentioned it before but I'm a big fan of Seb. His cv proves that he's a top bloke, but of course what really matters for us is what he's achieved since he's been with OXB.

OXB have always attracted top people and the men and women where we know their names are on a par with anybody in this business.

But, as the lead article in the Times famously asked in different words - now the covid vaccine has finished where is the money going to come from to fill that gap?

We went from having 2 business enquires per month to 2 per week with Seb as head of that team and their win rate is astonishing.

Our last normal year (2019) before the insanity of covid and the lockdowns and we had 8 partners. Two of those were Axovant and AZ, so one bust and one simply an open but dormant contract.

At the interims last year we had 25 partners and it will be many more than that a week on Monday. Almost all of that is down to Seb and his team.

If (after seeing what was on the cards at OXB) he also brought in IM with the ABL deal (if you can't beat them, join them) then he deserves every penny we pay him - which I suspect will be a lot.

8 working days to go...

[philh75] 16/4/2024 20:29

Interestingly our CCO, Seb is/was a consultant for Mereiux Investment Partners from January 23-present.

Now, Mereiux investment partners are 60% owned by Institut Mereiux, from whom we have just bought ABL. Seems like Seb could be the real deal broker?

[harry s truman] 16/4/2024 11:04

Following on from the PB link the other day:-



6 years after launch UK recommends routine roll out of CAR-T therapy Kyriah – but do you know its UK development heritage?
Last week NICE recommended Kymriah personalised immunotherapy to treat blood cancer be made routinely available on the NHS for children and young adults.

Children and young adults with a form of leukaemia that develops rapidly are set to benefit after NICE recommended an innovative, life-extending treatment where the person’s own immune cells are modified to fight the cancer. The treatment has been available through the NHS’s Cancer Drugs Fund since December 2018, with this new guidance now recommending its routine rollout – a full six years later.

This breakthrough product has important UK heritage, having emerged from research at the University of Pennsylvania. It was back in 2017 that the FDA granted its first approval for the CAR-T product, following crucial evidence to the regulator from UK biotech Oxford Biomedica, the sole manufacturer of the lentiviral vector that encodes the CD19-directed chimeric antigen receptor in Kymriah. Oxford Biomedica signed an agreement with Novartis in July 2017 for the commercial and clinical supply of lentiviral vectors used to generate Kymriah. As announced in October 2014, Oxford Biomedica also receives royalties on sales of Novartis CAR-T products. One of the key breakthrough products wouldn’t be the blockbuster it is today if it wasn’t for the manufacturing know-how of a key UK biotech player. It is a shame that heritage isn’t part of the NICE press release to link up the full story.

From

Note the last paragraph there - at least someone in the industry appreciates what OXB does ;)

[harry s truman] 16/4/2024 10:25

I think for people with family hypercholesterolemia and so looking at their first heart attack in their 40s then this must be of great interest. Thankfully that's quite rare. For the rest of us I think cholesterol is a necessary building block for a lot of important things (and if it wasn't then why would our livers make it?).

Having said that the world is mad - like the NN mega blockbuster drug (potentially the most lucrative prescription drug ever) as an alternative to eating less.

[harry s truman] 15/4/2024 19:32

Currently relieved that I wagered Dom's pound and not my own.

9 trading days left before the results.

[marcusl2] 15/4/2024 15:57

Yes H, I think In-vivo and gene editing are the next big advances.

Our findings demonstrate that the T-Charge™ manufacturing platform successfully maintains highly heterogeneous transduced Tscm clones with self-renewal potential in durcabtagene autoleucel products. Maintenance of Tscm in manufactured products contributes to robust CAR-T expansion and long-term persistence of CAR-T cells with a highly diverse TCR repertoire after infusion.



Traditional CAR T-cell manufacturing requires extended ex vivo cell culture, reducing naive and stem cell memory T-cell populations and diminishing antitumor activity. YTB323, which expresses the same validated CAR as tisagenlecleucel, can be manufactured in <2 days while retaining T-cell stemness and enhancing clinical activity at a 25-fold lower dose.


top 20 pharma companies by 2023 revenue

[harry s truman] 15/4/2024 11:39

Another strange day. 3,707 shares traded as I type, but I'd bet a pound of Dom's money that its somewhere near to 200k in total at the end of the day.

Hopefully a fortnight today will be a much more interesting day.

[harry s truman] 15/4/2024 00:06

I guess at some point (if CAR-T is to become mainstream and not the treatment of last resort - or next to last resort) then it either has to move to an outpatient setting or they need to build more facilities.

Maybe you remember this, but we are involved with T-Charge (Novartis) which is a CAR-T drug in current trials, which is grown on inside the patient (not a bioreactor).

My understanding / recollection from the time is that instead of the modified T-Cells being grown on in a warm bioreactor until there are a huge number to purify and infuse back into the patient as one massive assault, they infuse a much smaller number directly into the patient and do it sooner than would normally be possible.

The cells then multiply on inside the patient whilst looking for the target they have been programmed (with LentiVector) to kill.

If this works out in trials then not only is the patient less poorly at infusion time because of having to wait less time for the product, but the common "storm" reaction when the immune system is suddenly "switched on" (by T-Cells which can "see" the enemy) is much milder because the patient is given many less modified T-Cells.

Might not be 100% there, but that's the general gist of it and Novartis see T-Charge as replacing Kymriah with a simpler / quicker process which is easier on the patients - so I would assume that means outpatient. A while to wait yet for T-Charge though.

[fhasson] 14/4/2024 21:41

Interesting and comprehensive article regarding a shift in thinking regarding in- outpatient Car-T planned treatments versus inpatient treatments-should improve no. of future treatments offered significantly and the healthcare provider bottom line -which in turn will offer more treatments and so on

[fhasson] 14/4/2024 21:23

https://chi.scholasticahq.com/article/115793

[harry s truman] 13/4/2024 00:09

Another great find Phil.

Aside from the interesting content there, I'd suggest that video also tells us that we are still on excellent terms with both Miles and Peel Hunt (the previous house broker and analyst of course) which is good to see.

I wonder if this was instigated by a request from PH or if there has been some kind of charm offensive going on with all the covering brokers? I'm thinking the latter but I guess we will never know the answer to that one.

I think another very positive sign is the link with the US team visiting - everything everywhere as Frank (in his Cadbury's milk tray man outfit) might say.

[philh75] 12/4/2024 22:51

Inside Windrush court:



Other links of interest

[steeplejack] 12/4/2024 13:57

Make of it what you will but you can currently buy 25000 shares at 208.5 on quote and deal.That’s quite chunky for OXB.There’s stock about.