You didn’t look very hard Xoptimist, we’ve been talking about it all afternoon. |
 Greetings everybody. I am sure many of you will have clocked that Avid Bioservices was bought this week by a couple of large specialist healthcare private equity funds including the UK’s GHO. I am guessing you will have discussed this but I cant see any posts. Perhaps this got lost in the US election results on Wednesday.
I know many of you shot me down last time when I suggested that Avid was one of our better CDMO comparables – albeit operating in a slightly different space in antibodies.
However close you think it is to being a comparable I think it is nevertheless worth noting that Avid was sold for $1.1bn (£851m) – a 22% premium to market - or 6.8 times multiple of their forward guidance for FY2025 sales of $160-164m –17% growth rate over FY2024 (about half compared to our current estimated 3 year CAGR of 35%).
If Avid is a decent industry comparable then OXB on similar multiples would be worth £884m today (or £8,35 a share). (I have used Frank’s 2024 revenue guidance as Avid is already halfway through their FY2025 but of course there would be a case for OXB being valued on its forward revenue estimate of £175m of revenue for 2025).
Avid is in the larger antibody market and therefore carries a lower risk profile than OXB but this market generally has lower margins; more competition and lower barriers to entry. On the other hand, Avid is narrowly profitable, which is obviously a valuation plus.
Whilst many of you will intelligently argue that OXB is unique with much superior competitive advantage and R&D depth and knowledge (creating some kind of a moat) – nevertheless I would happily take 6.8 times sales this year and next (£1,19bn on FY2025 sales of £175m or £11,23 a share).
And if OXB is really so unique and superior and deserves a higher multiple than Avid’s 6.8 then hallelujah to that!
Sadly, we are a long way away from these valuation levels with OXB currently trading with a market cap of about £440m ($568m) or about half the valuation the PE guys have put on Avid. And we are trading at 3.4 times our 2024 estimated revenue and 2.5 times 2025 est.
If Novo does emerge as a potential buyer at least the Avid deal might establish a minimum benchmark – although perhaps there are other PE firms that can see that taking OXB private could unlock much greater value. In any event hopefully soon we will start to close what is a clear valuation gap with increasing benchmarks and comparables. |
All evidence which we have seen Dom (basically the interims presentation) is that it's all going very well. GMP suite utilisation for 2025 is in excess of 80% which is very good and of course where we make most of our money. This at a time when some of our competitors are struggling.
I would hope that both France and Boston know what they are doing as both worked on, then produced viral vectors before. Only real difference short term is that Boston is now going to be selling LV into the US region directly and France will be doing the same into the EU.
I agree about integration burning up management time, but I think Frank has already thinned out the duplications.
It's always been my understanding that the cGMP regs are what they are and the scientists will do what they do - with massive QA/QC/Validation oversight, so none of that is likely to change, even if the management structure above them does.
My glass half full here at the moment is that our woes are simply that not enough people know our story because it's smallcap and so they haven't looked.
Some news where OXB can tag on "profitability next year on £180m+ turnover" and people will look.
At the moment though? Still the covid vaccine manufacturer who doesn't do that anymore. |
Of course there IS another alternative..... that there is nothing very much going on at the moment and progress is stalled?
After all, management changes, integration issues, finding synergies between 3 centres can all burn up time. |
Unfortunately we have seen this at the back end of the year before. If there is some catalyst (most likely news) then great and we may get some good movement on the back of it. No news and we're likely to go sideways.
I do think we are due something and have been in that position for a long time now (my logic of this posted previously a lot) but the only time I ever saw shortcuts in process and regulation was during covid. So if it's a regulator we are waiting for then that will take as long as it takes. If it's a commercial supply purchase order which we are waiting for then that will get signed when the partner is ready. There's nothing that we (or OXB) can do to change that.
440k volume a few days ago vs what seems to be very low volume today is curious but probably means nothing. We have to wait until close of course to see what the real number is for today (there could easily be a lot of delayed trades yet to be shown). |
Lots of tiny trades.... is that a lack of interest? |
News required to get over the line before Xmas then but FT250 inclusion in 2025 seems very probable.OXB remains,in my book,a very attractive purchase in the UK equity market which faces a potentially arduous 2025.Starmer and Reeves have performed a Lord and Lady Macbeth on private enterprise-'t'were well,it were done quickly'-and hit business with sizeable cost increases.A situation which could be exacerbated by Trump's moves on the tariff front.Consequentially,Reeves calculations as to tax take could well prove optimistic as profitability slides Around 70% of demand in the UK is consumer driven and the Labour budget could well compromise that demand as tax related costs eat into corporate margins.In this context,OXB would appear as a relatively attractive investment. |
Speakers
André Raposo, PhD, Director, Innovation Department, Oxford Biomedica
Gareth McCathie, PhD, Group Lead, Oxford Biomedica
Thomas Evans, Principal Scientist, Oxford Biomedica |
All I want for Christmas is back in the FTSE250 Gareth (which you may have spotted me mentioning occasionally before... once or twice).
The trouble is that we are fast coming up to my final chance of the year (a fortnight tomorrow) and unless Mr Poonwalla decides to play Santa for us this Christmas and put an order our way labelled "Malaria" to be ready for the seasonal demand next year, then I'm thinking that there aren't many other things which could gain us a quid on the share price in 10 days. Maybe some good CAR-T news about myeloma, but I'm in wishful thinking mode at this point.
Long term then yes, I'm pretty convinced that Novo are the only probable buyers, but they are such a huge organisation. There will be committees to satisfy and such - they may just want OXB to be profitmaking overall or they may want to see France and the US holding their own independently, but I think that these huge organisations all share this same trait where they are happier to pay more later for a certainty than take a risk early with a bargain.
Maybe that will happen next year (i.e. Novo triggered by OXB profitability on routine non-exceptional work) or maybe it will be later, but of course that will have a lot more to do with our other major shareholders and what they are prepared to accept. For IM to give up their old French interests and for Vulpes to hand over their decades old shares (examples chosen as new and old there) I'm sure it won't be cheap for Novo Holdings (but then they are mega-wealthy and likely don't care). |
Great comparison and likely projected valuation HST.Is Christmas coming? Adverts on TV. |
Obviously I'm biased here Cousin, but I've done a turn on this once in post 8626
I still don't think Avid have any vectors to offer. What they offer is to work on / manufacture the one which the customer already has.
Yes I might be wrong but try and find their vector on their website.
As I mention in the above link / previous post, OXB say quite often that they think they are the only CDMO which is 100% pure CGT and has rights to 2 proven off the shelf vectors to offer for most of the market (AAV & LV) plus experience of working on c10 others including of course AV for the covid vaccine.
Seb said that most of our competition are biologics CDMOs who have dipped a toe into CGT. I think Avid would be covered by that description.
So no vectors of their own but a purpose-built 53,000 sq. ft. viral vector facility.
OXB have the vectors (first FDA approved LV in Kymriah has been a massive validation of what OXB can do) and OXB have 183,000 sq ft in Oxford, 96,000 sq ft in Boston and 123,000 sq ft in France.
That multiple would be reassuring if we were comparable, but imagine if their facilities were 8x as big, they had their own vectors and c40 customers. What multiple then?
Just to do my Peter the repeater bit to end here, I still think there's only one obvious buyer for OXB. Most valuable listed company in Europe and they already own 12% or so. |
Miserable drift downwards again... |
We're doing well keeping politics off the thread lads.
Still a chance of some news from OXB in the next 10 days, but it might revolve around me winning £103m tomorrow now. |
Explosive Day One: Trump and Kennedy Executive Orders Shatter the Status Quo and Redefine America’s Health, Freedom, and Government!
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won't be dull now will it in big pharma land... |
Just a quick starter, great to see trump win the popular vote, great to see Germany's politics in turmoil.
H. i am happy you concur, we have to be patient, i suspect next year we should see a significant rise in the share price propelling us into the 250. |
FTSE is 22nd. The 6th (yesterday) was MSCI (different indexes). |
Have the official FTSE250 changes been announced as I have not seen a link yet. Chart looking more bullish again so patience as ever with holding with this share :) |
Good step up first thing but no volume? Didn’t last long! |
Harry,you're right of course but frankly i've been irritated by comments like "you can't say that" ever since it became an accepted censorious refrain a good twenty years back.Folk can wave foreign flags in support of their causes in UK cities,surely my innocuous comments will be shrugged off as an irrelevance. |
SJ, I think we have to be extremely diplomatic re politics for a bit. Definitely a case of least said soonest mentioned and, as we saw the other day, a surprising number of OXB followers were rather keen on the other candidate.
Phil, I agree. I'm disappointed but not surprised (I had a go at reading the methodology for inclusion in the index and it's complex).
So, it really is hit and hope now for what was basically my sole target for this year - to get back in the FTSE250.
It's still possible, but I think needs OXB news to be sure of it. Pick your own odds for that.
If it happens I'll be very pleased. If we miss another quarter then end of Feb is next chance and if we get to May then we will have seen this year's results and a forecast for the profitmaking year. |
Beaten by a Raspberry Pi |
Doesn’t look like we made it |
Indeed Harry.
Hope isn’t a great investment strategy but is probably as useful as all that charting, Fibonacci, fill the gap, cup and handle nonsense that many espouse to.
Oxb story, future forecast and trend looks good and I’m hoping
Good luck all holders |
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