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OXB Oxford Biomedica Plc

201.00
3.80 (1.93%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Oxford Biomedica Plc LSE:OXB London Ordinary Share GB00BDFBVT43 ORD 50P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  3.80 1.93% 201.00 240,015 16:35:07
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
199.20 203.50 202.50 194.20 199.00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Medicinal Chems,botanicl Pds 139.99M -45.16M -0.4676 -4.31 194.61M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:00:21 O 22,539 200.7129 GBX

Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Latest News

Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Discussions and Chat

Oxford Biomedica Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
28/3/202419:15OXB. One owner, FSH Excellent conditionwith ejector seat7,442
13/3/202411:08Where we going945
13/2/202412:39Oxford Biomedica2,118
14/9/202309:29Open-minded posters thread576
26/4/202314:56OXB - sense and sensibility479

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Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Most Recent Trades

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18:00:22200.7122,53945,238.68O
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Oxford Biomedica (OXB) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 18/3/2024 11:57 by harry s truman
5.5x sales isn't a model Brucie, it's just a historic sector average of what a CDMO company should trade on - so a very rough guide. There is a progressively more accurate way to gauge, involving EV and such, but when OXB's value is so low, does that even matter? No, it's just a comparison.

In a similar way using a sector average for CDMO is only very approximate as a lot of people in CDMO are making generic otc medicines which there is only money in on huge volumes. CGT is far more lucrative and so the rating can (with some justification be double the average) - but you don't see me do that do you?.

It's like the breakeven figure for OXB, or the amount they need to sell to cover their costs, and OXB have told you previously everything you need to know to have a good stab at working that out.

You know that c£90m last year wasn't enough, but you can't look at the loss because some of that was for other stuff besides operations (capex on expansion in the US, £10m on redundancies and such), but you can remember that OXB said that on 130% of c£90m OXB would be broadly breakeven this year.

Since then the ball has rolled on, but ABL was said to be neutral in its pre-OXB life and our growth is now up another 5%.

In the simplest terms though, last September OXB told you that c£117m (c£90m x 1.3) would be broadly breakeven this year and a fortnight ago they told you that this year is now projected to be a FY2024 revenue range of £126 million to £134 million.

They really have showered us with detailed news of late, which is there for anyone who wants to look.

Yes there will be costs to bring ABL into the OXB family, but IM are paying those - and are apparently very happy to do so.

If, (if, if, if) the margin on c£117m in sales covers OXB's wage bill, leases, interest payments, utility charges and everything else this year, then what they sell above that is basically margin to the bottom line less raw material costs, consumables, packing, logistics and such - isn't it?

But what I have written there isn't new or news - we have known an evolving story since September that they are selling an unprecedented amount of work. At each update that has got better.

I might have to wait until after the interims and I might not, but personally I'm convinced that barring some exceptional negative event, OXB will be back in the FTSE250 this year.

I think though that we've all set our stalls out now though, and that nothing we type here changes anything anyway - so perhaps the best policy is to wait for news now, whether that be on the 29th of April or before.
Posted at 11/3/2024 21:03 by harry s truman
We've done the cash position a lot Brucie. £103.7m cash - c£40m loan - c£20m put option + c£17m from IM for new shares + whatever else comes our way this year. Nett cash is brilliant assuming that OXB hit their guidance of rough breakeven (or better).

Redwing,

I type what I think as an OXB watcher and usually caveat that somewhere. It's an opinion from a non-expert non-city type.

Maybe you know story well, apologies for the quick repeat if you do, but OXB were doing well before covid. CAR-T and a lot of other good stuff had lined up for them. Then came covid and clinical trials stopped (apart from covid related) and stuffed many of OXB's customers. We got vaccine work but when that ended early for political reasons a lot of our pre-pandemic work hadn't come back and we had 2 years where but for the huge cash balance we would have been stuffed too.

Read the recent releases and OXB's current situation is that not only is the work back now, but Seb's sales team is winning such an amount of work that we are already surpassing all pre-covid years and of course we wouldn't be sending excess work to America if Oxford wasn't at capacity.

Even on RBC's current assessment of OXB's public targets, so basically RBC being conservative about OXB's "achievable" guidance (i.e. effectively 2 cautious discounts applied there), their future is very bright (740p target this year).

Listen to Stuart in the webcasts last year about the guidance where he says 3 year revenue CAGR better than 30%, EBITDA margin better than 20%. But he stresses that these are very achievable targets which they expect to better.

What did he say in the update last week? Three-year revenue CAGR increased to more than 35%, up from prior guidance of more than 30%.

Expect to better 30% becomes more than 35% in six months?

Just my opinion here but based upon the above I honestly believe that OXB are in a position now where they are looking at the amount of work Seb's team is winning and thinking "this is brilliant, but after the last 2 years if we give projected guidance for the full story straight away then they'll never believe us".

So they are dripping it out in incremental stages (as shown above) and people like yourself are still thinking that it's too good to be true - which is fair enough.

Stuart says roughly breakeven for OXB this year, but there are of course many things lurking which could make that guidance redundant too.

Just another bit about the new house broker. RBC in their note last week have that revised target of 740p for this year, and of course you perhaps already know their 3 year fair value of £18, with both actually being discounted figures to reflect RBCs caution that OXB can achieve what they have guided for this year. RBC say that they will revise upwards as we progress through the year if and when OXB demonstrate that they are hitting their targets.

Their upside scenario for this year is significantly more than 740p and the upside target simply represents OXB delivering on everything the guidance in their public plan targets. OXB have said this is very achievable and they expect to better it.

I'm actually much more optimistic about the future than I might come across (yes, really). I also believe that OXB after the last interim results that, without the optimistic future plan + ABL deal, would have been simply been seen as missed previous guidance, are now giving guidance which is definitely not going to become another missed target - i.e. it's expectation over hope.

But what if some of the big hopes come in? I guess that's a different topic.

At the moment RBC are showing professional conservatism and I like that. I like it even more that their idea of conservatism is a target price of 740p this year.

In the absence of any other news, the presentation on the 29th April should show another 2 months of progress.
Posted at 07/3/2024 20:59 by harry s truman
I appreciate that, but I'm not really sure how it all happened. I want to think that an earlier thread formed the habit because there were a lot of good sorts around (even doc - our arch nemesis - was positive back then) but as you will have worked out I don't do this with my other shares. Could simply be the time invested too (rather than the money). I suppose everybody needs a hobby.

Anybody still around from the early days (and there are a few) I think we all have a very realistic view about our shares bought back then. I never owned OXB when they were AIM (that is before me) but I'm pretty sure they were floated at 100p and ended up higher when they joined the main exchange. Since then it's been a bit of a rollercoaster, but remember the 50 to 1 consolidation?

I have great optimism for the future of OXB and by that I don't mean the revenue or earnings which they have forecast for 2026.

Some of this revolves around the people who have come to OXB. Frank is 61 or 62 and had a brilliant job as CEO of Rentschler Biopharma (large private CDMO). They liked him and he has stayed on as a director there, so what is the logic for a guy nearing retirement to leave an excellent position for the same role in a UK company which had been severely battered post-covid.

I think we can discount both weather and food as attractions for a Frenchman, so why did he choose to come / what was the attraction? I suspect not the money as 6 or 7 years as CEO of Rentschler will have him extremely comfortable already.

So why come? And then Mark (our new US site boss) previously Vice President, Site Head for CDMO Rentschler Biopharma. No prizes for guessing how Frank knew what he could do, but again - left a good job to come to us?

Seb was VP CDMO for Merck and Thierry a similar very good job with Merck.

These guys all have great CVs / track records and yet they came to a company where if they looked at the losses before they came, or the share price chart?

The only thing which makes sense to me is that Frank wants to go into his eventual retirement on the back of creating something rather special and OXB is his chosen vehicle.

Seb Joined before Frank, but Frank brought the other two in and these guys all know how to do this (make millions in successful CDMO).

The fact that Seb, Frank and Thierry are all native French speakers is invaluable for how ABL develops - and there is a huge amount of potential there. Mark in the US has a facility roughly the size of OxBox, so with similar potential.

Frank's job is to now make sure everything OXB owns pays for itself and I think he's already made a very good start.

You will have seen me before mention our three 1,000 litre bioreactors in Oxford (we have many more smaller), there are three 500 litre bioreactors in Boston, three 200 litre bioreactors in Lyon and one in Strasbourg.

Ignoring all the smaller equipment for process development and pilot scale work (which as we know is very busy) that's an awful lot of capacity for volume production which at the moment has demand nowhere near capacity. I'm certain that will be somewhere near the top (if not the top) of Frank's to do list.

Get the downstream side of OXB at anything near the current utilisation of our process development / upstream equipment and I think you would be surprised at what OXB can earn.

1,000 litre bioreactors bought for covid vaccine bulk production are probably never going to be used in CGT CDMO work, but they are ideal for mass production of another vaccine. In time we will discover the plan, but using those again could be such a big earner.
Posted at 07/3/2024 11:25 by cousinit
Just on the price of 407.4p. On the day the IM/ABL deal was originally announced, analysts were very complimentary on how low the cost of acquisition was for OXB.

Clearly they might not have crunched the numbers on all aspects in the overall context that quickly, but it does give some comfort that OXB didn't have to overpay.

Was the headline deal value more a factor of the OXB share price? The key deal terms may actually have been the stake size IM took in OXB and the price of 407.4p was just a reflection of where the shares had been trading in the months preceding the acquisition?
Posted at 06/3/2024 15:23 by harry s truman
Philly,

The notes are for private clients of RBC or similar people (I am neither). If you search on "Oxford Biomedica RBC" then lots of the financial websites (morning star and such) listed a revised RBC target of 740p for OXB yesterday.

Certain of the the notes you can buy from websites like Zacks, but not the RBC note. I'd reassure you here that there are no market sensitive secrets in any of them, it's just an opinion based upon a chat with OXB's management. For the ordinary PI then imho they are reassuring but not really relevant. For a professional then it saves a lot of time to pay someone else for some collated information.

The long term targets aren't really forecasts, they are just a suggestion of what fair value would be if OXB's 3 year plan (as described to us too) works out.

So (to give one example) at the moment we are doing a lot of early stage work. Some of that will come to nothing, either because in early trials the idea just doesn't work or because the customer decides it's too big of a risk or any number of reasons.

But, a percentage of our early stage customers will progress to become later stage customers which means more work of a different kind and more money.

Nobody really knows what that percentage is. So there is a guess based upon experience / industry knowledge that xx% of them will progress to later stage work and that is where the future 1,800p fair value comes from.

If that assumed percentage progresses to later stage and early stage remains at capacity with new demand then 1,800p.

If the percentage progressing to the next stage is less than assumed and demand for early stage wanes, then it will be less than 1,800p if the actual percentage is higher and early stage demand remains high then it will be more than 1,800p.

Nobody knows how that will turn out yet, though we have all seen press stories predicting future market sizes for gene therapy. This is very much a pay your money / take your choice type deal - and remember that one of the brokers (I think Liberium) actually has a 12 month target price of less than today.

I suspect some of these people are not going to be convinced until OXB posts H1 results to prove their worth sometime in September.

I've watched OXB drop after good news many times before and so it wouldn't surprise me if it happens again over the next few weeks.

A base value for OXB as a CDMO should be 5.5x revenue. Important to note that's not how much work they can sell in a year, more what they can complete and bill for - so, to take last year they sold £131m of work but invoiced c£90m within the year.

£90m x 5.5 = £495m. There are roughly 100m shares so a fair price should have been at least 495p, which it was for a lot of last year until some US funds started selling in August (from which we have yet to recover).

In the RNS yesterday OXB said their projected revenue for 2024 (so not might or possibly, but expected) will be in the range of £126 million to £134 million.

Same 5.5x multiple would be a market cap of £693m to £737m.

£737m market cap / 99,957,395 shares is as near to 740p as doesn't matter, but I'm sure RBC put more effort into their target than that.

I've waited a long time and I can continue to do so. The big worry seems to be that OXB will get bought out cheaply, but my opinion is that NN, Vulpes, Serum and now IM would just say no. With all those shares out of the equation then it's probably a non-starter and I'm sure predator companies will have looked.

Of more interest to me is not the reassurance of what OXB have now told us, it's more what they "might" do (basically all the guesses in the post above and much more which we can't guess at). OXB have three 1,000 litre bioreactors in Oxford which were bought at a cost of millions for the covid vaccine work which then paid for them many times over. Since covid they have seemingly done nothing. If OXB can find a post-covid use for those then the scale of what they would produce makes them very lucrative pieces of equipment, even if the unit / dose cost of what they produce is very low.

An example there of why a 3 year target isn't really a target - too much can happen to change it. Here and now though, we have started a year very well which OXB are confident will be a good one. For us now, it's wait for the next news - which is expected end of April (Monday 29th) but might be before with something unexpected.
Posted at 05/3/2024 19:03 by harry s truman
takeiteasy,

re your question in #7155, then first I want to stress with a wealth warning here that I'm not any kind of financial expert. If I was then I would have sold all my shares at more than £15 and bought them back again at less than £2. I didn't.

I really want to weasel out with an answer which says I think it's a sum of the parts and it's all important, but in reality it has to be the cash burn.

Just over a year ago Stuart said at the JPM conference that after they had reorganised the business then they would effectively have "an infinite cash runway" as they wouldn't be spending cash on operations - and - whilst they did have plans to spend cash on capex for expansion and such, that is discretionary - meaning of course that if the demand wasn't there to make it pay back then they wouldn't do it.

It's stating the obvious I know, but sat on a huge pile of cash and not needing to dip into it for day to day operations is a very good place to be in any economy, but in this one it is brilliant.

I hear that RBS have simultaneously issued their first note as house broker today to coincide with OXB's financial update and raised their short term share price target to 740p with a 3 year target of 1,800p. Nice as the 3 year target is there, a lot can happen between now and 2017, so that's just really a marker. As I've mentioned a lot, my own target is back into the FT250 this year and I believe that is very achievable.

I'm assuming that if OXB have now briefed RBS (and how else would they produce the note?) that the other 8 covering brokers will already now have the same story or will hear it soon. With that in mind then I would expect a lot of forecast / target revisions before the results else some of them are going to look very out of touch.

But (there's always a but) coming back to your original question about what I think is most important, and I think it's maybe something they haven't announced yet.

Phil mentions ‘game changer’ upsides in his post there, which none of the analysts are including anything for because they don't do speculation (unlike us).

Serum - the 1,000 litre bioreactor for 10 years - for what? Potentially worth millions.

BMS - it's nearly a year since OXB said in their webcast words to the effect that BMS had expanded their agreement with us on the back of satisfaction, but that OXB were expecting to hear something more from them. You could be forgiven for thinking "11 months = dead in the water" when actually that could simply be the speed at which a huge pharmaceutical company works. Might be another expansion of the agreement, could be anything (or nothing).

Rocket - really we only know that name because Plutonian spotted that their LentiVector looks very much like ours and noted that they don't have one of their own. If their drug is approved on June 30th and if it is our vector then that's millions for us as it moves to commercial supply.

So the 3 Phil mentions there, but I'd also prompt with the reminder that AZ had 11 CDMOs bashing their covid vaccine and they kept the contract open with just one (OXB). Why? Contingency after AZ said publicly that they wouldn't do the same thing again after their covid experiences or were they just very pleased with OXB and thinking "they would be able to help us with ___"?

Another blast from the past here, but what about the article linked here last year linking WuXi with OXB. Maybe that's dead but if not they are a huge company in an even huger market which we have no exposure to.

So the unknown unknowns could be anything, the known unknowns (above) might be something and might be nothing, though personally I think there's so much in the public domain about malaria at the moment that the Serum one is a bit like working out who's farted if there's only 2 of you in a lift. What else could it be? (I am open to other suggestions as to why they want a 1,000 litre bioreactor for 10 years).

But with all the unknowns there, and to finish with something which Dudley Moore's character might have said in Arthur "5 million here, 10 million there, 25 million somewhere else and pretty soon you're talking a lot of money".
Posted at 01/3/2024 05:48 by takeiteasy
4/12/23:
Institut Mérieux has acquired a 3.3 per cent stake in Oxford Biomedica, through purchases in the open market, which it intends to increase to approximately 10.0 per cent in aggregate by the end of Q3 2024.
Commitment from Institut Mérieux to provide the Company with EUR20 million of additional funding, to cover capital expenditure and potential operational losses in relation to the acquisition of ABL Europe, by means of an equity subscription in the Company ("Deferred Subscription Shares"), with timing at Oxford Biomedica's discretion prior to 27 September 2024.

29/1/12: 3.2 per cent of the Company's share capital issued to Institut Mérieux at a share price of 407.4p

1/2/24: TR1 IM holds over 6%

So at FX rate =1.17 IM will invest a further £17m of OXB shares at the current share price will add 17m/ 164m (market cap) or 10%.

So if IM does no further normal market purchases but simply goes ahead with this subscription at the current market price of around 170p then they will end up with over 16% of the firm. Is this logic correct please.

This is nothing like in line with the comment of ending up around 10% - the only thing I guess the firm will hope is that the share price improves at some point and delay issuing these extra shares for a few months - but we are already March and the share price has not moved - time will not wait forever here :)
Posted at 27/2/2024 13:29 by harry s truman
Steeplejack,

I honestly don't think we have much common ground. I came to that conclusion long ago with the amount of time you spent on badger's thread. You might think that's an unfair thing to write, but those of us here for any amount of time remember badger spamming the OXB thread to get people into HEMO. Once he was presumably out of HEMO and the price collapsed, he was on the HEMO threads mocking those left in.

So, although I'm perhaps guilty of judging by association here, most of us seemed to have worked out that badger is of low character, many aliases and means well for no one except himself. Best not humoured, though he is I believe a coal mine expert now.

Anyway, he left his thread (of doom but no actual bad news) and you are here now. Today's problem (for you and so far 3 others) seems to be the obstacle of how OXB can return to the price they were in March 2023 (almost 12 months ago) before the price dropped on no bad news about OXB and didn't rise again on £124m worth of new work won as of early December.

So, by all means continue with the pantomime chorus of "oh no they can't" without ever (to my recollection) outlining an obvious problem with OXB, but I'm sort of done now with the "oh yes they can" reply.

I appreciate you have lost hope in the LSE and would prefer to see OXB as a tiny fish in a much more vicious US pond. That one has me less than convinced.

We also have this ongoing comparison to Moderna, where the only commonality is that both saw the boom / bust of being covid stocks, but other than that Moderna as a mega pharmaceutical company has nothing in common with the biotech / now CDMO which is OXB.

So I feel we are at this impasse now and yet again I'm reminded that since badger became a natural resources expert this is now often what is basically a surrogate bear thread.

If in the future you have got anything which actually relates directly to OXB then I'll give it a go, but right now I'm quite tired of problems with OXB which we can't quite put our finger on (which does seem to be a popular view).
Posted at 21/2/2024 21:48 by harry s truman
It's curious but no real guarantee that anything is happening. Obviously we think that we are due something from them before the prelim results in April, but outside of that it could be anything (or nothing).

I'm hoping that they aren't going to buy anything else (Homology's manufacturing arm in 2022 & ABL in 2023 might have them on a roll, but I hope not).

It would be interesting to know how the put option works with regard to LV work from Oxford being done in Boston.

The original deal said this "at any time following the three-year anniversary of the Closing (March 10 2022) OXB will have an option to cause Homology to sell and transfer to OXB, and Homology will have an option to cause OXB to purchase from Homology, in each case all of Homology’s equity ownership interest in (OXB Solutions) at a price equal to 5.5 times the revenue for the immediately preceding 12-month period, subject to a specified maximum amount.".

But is that just revenue on earnings related to the AAV side? Remember Homology own nothing of our LV now in early work there.

More to the point though, Homology are a bit stuffed. Nasdaq are peeved at how low their share price is and they have a 6 month warning on that



But as they are merging with Q32 Bio and abandoning the old business, would it not make sense (closure) for them to try to get bought out of their option rather than having to wait 13 months?

Do it now and they can wrap everything up and move on. In the interim results the option was valued at £20.3 million (end of June 2023).

Yet another possibility there of what OXB might be up to. If OXB are breakeven or better this year then they can afford £20m. If I was correct with a previous post about how many Orchard shares we have remaining, then that cheque from Japan would be timed very nicely.

I appreciate this is too many guesses now of what they might be up to, but I would say that the people wrapping up Homology will have a need with some urgency whilst OXB have the cash. There is a natural meeting point there I think where Homology get their money early in exchange for a discount. But maybe they are happy to wait until March next year?
Posted at 21/2/2024 13:27 by harry s truman
Remember trovax that for any of the holders over 3% they have to tell you as they cross percentage thresholds in either direction. If they have been dumping for a while then it's taking them an awful long time to cross a threshold.

Much more likely (imho) is this is related to holders under 3% (still a lot of money) as they are always under our radar.

OXB have promised more regular reporting and I think one of the reasons for that is to try to stop shareholders coming up with scenarios of what might have gone wrong. I suspect nothing has gone wrong and the only uncertainty here is of when we will next hear from OXB.

I've banged on about company history a lot, but when TroVax halted in the TRIST trial that could easily have been the end of us as that trial was our big hope.

OXB talked about a confirmation trial in the best tiny subset from TRIST, but what use is an adjuvant cancer vaccine which only works in a tiny subset of patients? QED that small confirmatory trial never happened and after some charity funded trials in different indications, that was the end of TroVax.

Sanofi came back to our rescue and took 4 preclinical ocular drugs. This became our next big hope. One drug was soon returned, then the other 3 much later as Sanofi said the drugs worked but there wasn't the business case to continue.

OXB talked about those being good candidates for being sold on. Many years have gone by and how many of the 4 have we sold on? i.e. Sanofi were likely correct.

Novartis (god bless those people) arrived in 2013 with a request for CAR-T and 11 years on this year that has been our most successful partnership. That one contract definitely saved OXB from the usual biotech fate.

We licenced ProSavin to Axovant who renamed it Axo-Lenti-PD, told the world how good they were at everything and then slowly self-destructed. Even changing the company name to Sio couldn't stop them going out of business. They gave us ProSavin back and OXB said it was definitely a candidate for selling on again. As with the eye drugs, that hope seems to have been just that.

Then came covid and if you remember our share price (along with everybody else) got hit as the market knew what killing an economy would do. So early 2020 we take a beating and then it becomes clear that we are going to help make the vaccine. In less than 2 years our price trebles from the early 2020 low.

Without the vaccine work would we have got through the pandemic as pretty much everything trial related went on hold? Absolutely not. They would have needed to cut cloth quite sharply to suit the Novartis supply income and that would have left us at the end of the pandemic with very little money but still waiting for the pre-pandemic work to come back.

Happily we got the vaccine work and did very well with it, which paid for our pandemic and part paid for the Homology deal, so we survived the pandemic and ended up a bigger company, but still waiting for the pre-pandemic trial support work to return.

Here we are today, and after a few really horrible years the trial support work is back and the company (minus our in-house drug work) is even bigger with the addition of ABL Europe. As a result of this the company has told us that this year we are finally back on track and the rest is behind us.

I can't imagine anyone who even half knows that history thinking that the above is a sell signal for OXB today. So it's either not selling or someone who has to sell for reasons unconnected with OXB's prospects.
Oxford Biomedica share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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