Osirium Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[hedgehog 100] 14/8/2021 14:30

OSI Technical Analysis from Investing.com:

"OSIO Technical Analysis"

"Summary: STRONG BUY
Moving Averages: BUY Buy (10) Sell (2)
Technical Indicators: STRONG BUY Buy (9) Sell (0)"

[hedgehog 100] 14/8/2021 12:27

OSI Technical Analysis from TradingView.com:

"OSIRIUM TECHNOLOGIES PLC ORD 1P"

"Technical analysis"

"Oscillators Summary Moving Averages"

"NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY"

[hedgehog 100] 13/8/2021 12:24

Welcome Corrientes.

Conor McCarthy, founder and editor since 1984 of the Techinvest newsletter, is a bit of a hero of mine.

The Techinvest performance record helps to explain why:

Techinvest Trader Portfolio 1
Starting capital (1.3.85): £20,000
Termination value (31.3.93): £462,874
Gain (8 years and 1 month): 2214%

Techinvest Trader Portfolio 2
Starting capital (1.3.93): £50,000
Termination value (30.4.96): £276,691
Gain (40 months): 453.3%

Techinvest Trader Portfolio 3
Starting capital (1.4.96): £50,000
Termination value (27.3.00): £570,402
Gain (4 years): 1040.8%

Techinvest Trader Portfolio 4
Starting capital (1.1.00): £100,000
Value 31.7.18: £758,763
Gain (18 years and 7 months): 658.8%

And his ten point, one page article "Technology stocks - attractions and dangers", that I quoted from and linked to yesterday, is a template for making money from tech stocks.

In fact, it's well worth framing a copy and hanging it above your desk!

Some of the points aren't relevant to OSI, but those that are strongly support the investment case here.

[corrientes] 12/8/2021 16:49

Hedgehog 100

Thanks for that. I'm into mining in a fairly big way, but have dipped my toe into this, like I have with VRE. I'll study the analogy and see if I have anything useful to contribute.

[hedgehog 100] 12/8/2021 11:08

11/06/2021 07:00 UKREG Osirium Technologies PLC Final Results
" ... The Group spent GBP1.81m (2019: GBP1.77m) on direct staff and contractor costs for research and development, of which all was capitalised in both periods. This expenditure pertains to developing the Group's new and enhanced software offerings. The Group continues to invest in new product development, as well as the continual modification and improvement of its current product base to meet technological advances, customer and ever-expanding new market requirements of the rapidly evolving cybersecurity market. ..."



Corrientes,

OSI's R&D investment is a major bull point here.

OSI market capitalisation at the current share price of 22.5p: £6.61 million.

Divided into OSI 2020 R&D spending of £1.81M.

= PRR (price-to-research ratio) of 3.65.

This highlights OSI's quite fantastic value and growth prospects.


From the legendary tech stocks guru Conor McCarthy:

"Calculate annual R & D expenditure per share and compare it to the share price.
If the PRR (price-research ratio - share price divided by R and D per share) is 5 or less it is nearly always worth buying the shares. This applies particularly to recovery situations. As long as an exploration company has the wherewithal to drill holes, there is always the possibility it will strike it lucky. The same goes for an out-of-favour technology company. As long as it can continue to invest in R and D there is the chance it will come up with a blockbuster product. The lower the PRR the more development bang you get for your buck."

[corrientes] 12/8/2021 10:09

You'd have thought the Market would be latching on to this one. Is the guy, DG, living on past glories, and are the company products no longer up to date, and therefore not attracting new customers ? Does the company spend a reasonable amount on R&D ? Just curious.

[hedgehog 100] 03/8/2021 17:47

COMPARE & CONTRAST:

27/04/2021 07:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Crossword Cybersecurity PLC 2020 Annual Results; AGM Notice; Board Changes LSE:CCS Crossword Cybersecurity Plc
"... Delivered 25% revenue growth to GBP1.6m, despite the toughest economy in recent memory. ...
Loss of GBP2.3m and GBP1.0m closing cash. ..."


11/06/2021 07:00 UKREG Osirium Technologies PLC Final Results
"... Total recognised revenue increased by 22% to GBP1.43 million ...
Reduced operating loss of GBP2.88 million ...
... Cash balances at 31 December 2020 of GBP1.48 million ..."


Current CCS s.p.: 33p, market cap. £19.15M.

Current OSI s.p.: 22p, market cap. £6.46M.

Interestingly, CCS was tipped by The Financial Mail on Sunday's Midas column on 2nd May, mentioning that the long-term potential of the business was underscored by the successful IPO of its much larger rival Darktrace at a valuation of £1.7bn.

[kemche] 24/7/2021 20:22

Equivalent comparators found aplenty.
Righty - ho.
Same old same old.

Unfiltered?

[hedgehog 100] 24/7/2021 16:39

"David Guyatt
Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
Co-founder of Osirium, the management team is led by David Guyatt, who has over 30 years’ experience in turning next generation IT products into successful technology businesses. He is a recognised pioneer in establishing the content security software market, being a co-founder and CEO of the Content Technologies group, which created MIMEsweeper and became the recognised world leader in content security solutions, with a 40 per cent global market share, and was sold for $1Bn within 5 years, the largest European cyber security acquisition at the time. Previously, David was Sales & Marketing Director at Integralis from 1990 to 1996, as it established itself as Europe’s leading IT security integrator - now part of the NTT group."


OSI's co-founder and CEO, David Guyatt, is doubtless aiming to repeat his previous success as a co-founder and CEO ... resulting in his company being sold for a cool one billion dollars.

Inflation-adjusted, that $1Bn. is equivalent to about $1.578Bn. today.

"$100 in 2000 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $157.78 today, an increase of $57.78 over 21 years. The dollar had an average inflation rate of 2.20% per year between 2000 and today, producing a cumulative price increase of 57.78%."


Or about £1.15Bn. at current exchange rates.

Which is about 186 times higher than OSI's current market cap. at 21p of £6.17 million.

[megasonic] 23/7/2021 16:55

Hedgehog I must admit I'm a bit stumped. At no point did I say OSI have a bad product, in fact quite the contrary. I did however say given cash burn, the business model (ie their cash flow situation) was questionable - making losses as a company can be done so long as they are sustainable and my point is the company itself could not sustain the losses without more investor cash. I am sure you will understand the subtle difference here between product and business. I also said that the positive for OSI is the company is a decent candidate for takeover. I also said cybersec is a growing market that is in investor's radar at the moment.You accused me of de-ramping and called me out for saying OSI will need another Placing by April 2022 because they are burning through too much cash. You are now agreeing that it is likely a Placing will be required which I commend you for as this as this is the only logical conclusion to be made from the accounts as they stand. Whether the Placing would be at a discount or a premium is a matter of informed opinion and we can respect one another's differing views on this. I am though wondering why you felt the need to fling accusations of de-ramping and nonsense my way?

[hedgehog 100] 23/7/2021 15:48

Albert Arthur 8 Oct '20 - 07:48 - 126 of 191 0 1 0
"How? It’s growing and growing and being more regulated.Working in Financial services on Linux machines, this is something being enforced by regulation, something required. Sysadmins will not vanish... neither will local, or cloud based access. Cyberark are similar. Listed on the NASDAQ, and have a cap of 4b over. OSI cap is 3.2m 1250 times higher. Also OSI are much more than PAM.
Good thing about OSI is they have 100% renewals, also stealing customers and winning against competitors. Increasing revenue."

18BT 8 Oct '20 - 08:49 - 129 of 191 0 1 0
"Albert - I titally agree with you. Priviledged access to "super users" is a growing issue and I can't see why it is going away. As well as in-house priviledged access, further outsourcing of office support and more frequent roll out of updates and inter-linking of systems means this isn't going away. Cloud migration makes absolutely no difference - different people still need different access to systems whether office server-room or cloud based."


Thanks to Albert Arthur and 18BT for those above useful posts, which are worth repeating.


CyberArk Software (CYBR) Stock Chart:

[hedgehog 100] 23/7/2021 15:12

Megasonic,

I'm not 'equating' OSI to Amazon.
I'm saying that OSI can follow Amazon's path in one particular respect (i.e. moving from losses into profits).
There is a subtle difference.
Loads of companies do it, so what's the big deal?

There is also a subtle difference between saying that I've been an OSI shareholder for some time, and saying long-term.
I've been a holder in the medium-term, which I define as at least two months but under two years, buying in at about the current share price.
I've very pleased with my timing here, and very excited and confident about the outlook.

That said, while I'm happy to hold a stock for years, if a story starts to turn sour I never hesitate to dump in minutes.
I agree that one must never become emotionally attached to a stock.

I would also agree that another placing next year is likely, if the company doesn't get taken over, but when I last checked next year is 2022, not 2021 ... unless I've missed something very dramatic!

And considering how some related companies have been doing recently, a placing at multiples of the current share price isn't impossible.

Look at Corero Network Security (CNS), which had relatively recently risen well over four-fold in under a year (3.6p to 16p), despite making big losses.
Currently 11.1p, market capitalisation £54.93 million.

13/04/2021 07:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Corero Network Security PLC Full year results LSE:CNS Corero Network Security Plc
"Corero Network Security plc (AIM: CNS), a leading provider of real-time high-performance, automatic Distributed Denial of Service ('DDoS') cyber defense solutions, announces its audited results for year ended 31 December 2020. ...
Revenues increased 74% to $16.9 million (2019: $9.7 million) ...
Loss before taxation of $4.0 million (2019: loss of $6.6 million) ..."


Corero Network Security (CNS):

[megasonic] 23/7/2021 14:10

Hedgehog, in answer to your queries:--'Do you dispute OSI well funded into 2022?'Erm, you have read my previous posts right? I have already said OSI will burn through cash this year and find itself in debt which will require a Placing by April 2022. So, just to be clear, no I do not believe OSI is well funded into 2022. Yes I do dispute a claim to the contrary.--'Do you dispute positive trading news is likely in 2021?'Is positive news possible? Yes. Is it likely? Maybe. Will positive news be substantial enough to avoid a cash call? Definitely not.--'Is Cyber security attractive to investors?'Definitely yes. That's why DARK, KAPE and IGP share prices have performed so well recently. SWG reports results next week and its share price may well follow the uptrend of the aforementioned PLCs. Meanwhile OSI continues to be the laggard of this group which is what makes it so so frustrating.--I mean really? AMZN is the exception, not the rule. This is AMZN revenues growth:1996: $15m1997: $150m1999: $1.5billion 2007: $15billion2017: $150billion In its early days, AMZN was able to reinvest hundreds of millions in development because it was generating billions. OSI is not generating even a fraction of that. It is absolutely fantastical to equate OSI with AMZN. You are an investor who seems to keep themselves informed. You do not need others to point out that OSI is not cybersec's version of AMZN. Seriously, come on man, you don't honestly believe that?--As you are a long term investor in OSI, you must have invested back in at least 2019. Can I ask how much value your holding has lost? My guess is you are down about 50%. If so, I can empathise with the psychology of doubling down on the investment.Look, the purpose of investing is to grow wealth. We commit our hard earned cash in stocks to do this. We must be also mindful to not invest our emotions and biases into the stocks along the way.

[kemche] 23/7/2021 13:05

"This highlights OSI's quite fantastic value and growth prospects."
Quite.
Fantastic!

[hedgehog 100] 23/7/2021 13:00

11/06/2021 07:00 UKREG Osirium Technologies PLC Final Results
" ... The Group spent GBP1.81m (2019: GBP1.77m) on direct staff and contractor costs for research and development, of which all was capitalised in both periods. This expenditure pertains to developing the Group's new and enhanced software offerings. The Group continues to invest in new product development, as well as the continual modification and improvement of its current product base to meet technological advances, customer and ever-expanding new market requirements of the rapidly evolving cybersecurity market. ..."


OSI market capitalisation at the current share price of 21p: £6.17 million.

Divided into OSI 2020 R&D spending of £1.81M.

= PRR (price-to-research ratio) of 3.41.

This highlights OSI's quite fantastic value and growth prospects.

[hedgehog 100] 23/7/2021 12:45

Temporarily defiltered my favourite stalker Kemche on the off-chance that he is actually posting about OSI on this OSI thread.

I have confirmed that, as suspected, he is not, so filter back on!

[kemche] 23/7/2021 12:42

And could we please have a parabolic chart for a totally unrelated company please. Thanks.

[kemche] 23/7/2021 12:41

HH - have you EVER been silent on any share that you hold? Asking for a friend.
And will any of them go up less than a thousand fold. And is any not EXACTLY like Amazon?

[kemche] 23/7/2021 12:39

HH, Are you still a CRCL holder? If so I believe rmart could do with some help. Thanks.

[hedgehog 100] 23/7/2021 12:36

Megasonic,

Why is it fantastical to think that OSI can follow Amazon's path by moving from losses into profits?

It's a common journey followed by numerous tech companies.

Just as it is commonplace for such companies to fall heavily before rising again: Amazon for example at one point fell by 95% in in its loss-making period.

And when the share price reverses upwards, the same obviously happens with the fundraising prices.

Let me ask you the following:
• Do you dispute that OSI is well-funded into 2022?
• Do you dispute that positive trading news, including specific contracts wins, is likely in the rest of 2021?
• Do you dispute that OSI is operating in a tech area that is very attractive to investors?

That being the case, why exactly do you think that the share price will fall rather than rise, when all commonsense and logic suggests that it will rise?

I would add that I have been an OSI shareholder for some time, buying in for about the current share price, but had no intention of posting here until I was stung into doing so by your deramping nonsense!

[kemche] 22/7/2021 20:01

HH, Would you say that it has the making of a Trillion Dollar company? And would you also agree that it is exactly like Amazon?