Orosur Mining Share Discussion Threads

[rivaldo] 24/1/2017 14:14

Cantor Fitzgerald have increased their target price to 44p (from 32p):

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/172106/broker-slaps-big-price-upgrade-on-orosur-mining-172106.html

"Broker slaps big price upgrade on Orosur Mining
11:25 24 Jan 2017

A new price target from Cantor Fitzgerald points to potential upside of over 150% at Uruguay-based gold miner Orosur Mining International PLC (LON:OMI TSE:OMI).

Orosur runs San Gregorio, the country’s only gold mine and is making significant progress towards defining new deposits and reserves close to its existing operations argues the house broker.

“We note a new determination on the part of the company in replacing reserve at its operations in Uruguay where exploration is underway on extensions to the new SGW underground workings and at nearby open pit targets.”

In addition, it has recently made a commitment to drilling its Anzá project in Colombia which should lead to a maiden resource estimate.

At San Gregorio, Cantor said it has been impressed by the smooth transition from the underground workings at Arenal to SGW (west).

The miner has reiterated its production and cost guidance for 2017 at 35-40,000oz and US$800-900/oz respectively, but Cantor is going for 36,600oz, leaving the company with 19,800 oz to produce in the second half or 18% more than in the first six months.

“As the new SGW mine stabilises during the period and open pit production is maintained, we believe this target should be comfortable.” The broker's estimate for cash costs has also been trimmed by 3.5% to US$816/oz.

“Based on our revised estimates and current peer group multiples our US dollar valuation for OMI rises by 13% to US$54m (C$0.73/share) but at current exchange rates the sterling target price rises by 36% to 44p.” Buy is the investment view.

Shares in London rose 1.5% to 16.75p. The miner is also listed in Canada."

[bigtbigt] 24/1/2017 12:50

Thanks 2sporrans !
People would pay good money for that kind of analysis :-)

[richgit] 24/1/2017 12:45

As Mr Turk reminds all,it is option expiry week in Paper Gold

One of the longest running and profitable scams of the decade for the big 4 shorts-
particularly Dracula.

He is correct of course that one day the Big 4 would be aware of the hopelessness
of the situation,and it only takes Dracula to step back in a double cross and ALL shorts would be toasted.

The accelerating loss of London`s control over Physical Gold (to China)may remind
Gordon the Moron of when He was staring down the barrels of a 12 bore, as all hell would have let loose if at that desperate time a "Chavez" demanded the return of Gold from London when there was little beyond re-hypothecated Gold to the Moon.

All the Bank of England were staring at, was Gold owed to so many,and personally
I believe that even the "Auctioned Gold" was borrowed from the Saudis to fulfil
that scam,as the Bank of England had none that wasn`t owed to many others.

The Gold is gone.

[richgit] 23/1/2017 11:16

QS99.

Patience...

Some "what ifs" are catching the pure momentum traders.


At some point,assuming OMI offers more positive assessment of the Waymar assets,
I daresay it wont be unreasonable to consider that if Waymar was listed on AIM at that point it may fetch a very modest initial £10 Million Market Cap on its what is and what ifs.

That wouldn`t leave much bar petty cash value for all the rest,and would look somewhat ludicrous !!!!

I am of course not suggesting the Waymar assets would be spun off -just making the
comparison- if they were.

Nobody can truly predict what will happen this year with the Markets & Gold,yet arguably all OMI investors need in the months to come is a hoped average of Gold at circa $1250 to look back upon -heading towards the final quarter of 2017 and all being well those Waymar assets will be in view to numbercrunch.

Assuming that - then it`s those of us already invested that will drive the price,as the appreciators of the undervalue will buy more of that undervalue.







IMHO.

[2sporrans] 23/1/2017 10:53

Augustusgloop
Apologies for slow response; not looked in for a few days.

Arenal.
Just a quick response, all from memory:
I don't recall OMI saying this was a 10 year mine; not what they developed at least.
I recall them stating a certain amount of resource, commensurate with their first development phase, that if extracted to produce ~40k pa would last ~4 years. [The idea had been to model on something like 70% Arenal + 30% open pit production for a POG >$1,300/oz]
Whatever, they became increasingly reliant upon Arenal as the POG fell progressively towards $1,100/oz then under; they abandoned their SG expansion plans back in 2013 to save cash [on SG "Deeps" development]; also curbed the open pit production they had been blending in with Arenal's as the cash costs for open pit are $1,100/oz upwards.

So, you may ask, if it was the right decision back then to mothball SG Deeps, what makes it a good idea now , with the POG ~$1,200/oz?

I think what has happened is something like this:
Salazar was faced with spending a lot on a 2nd development phase at Arenal, extending deeper down 'on strike', to exploit what you have quoted him on:
"In April 2016 "At Arenal Deeps, the Company is testing a down-plunge extension/ repetition of the Arenal mineralized structure. A 1,100m drilling campaign commenced in December 2015 and is expected to conclude during Q4 FY16."
Alternatively, he could switch to developing one of the [now 3] SG Deeps ore bodies, while Arenal continued to produce [from current development].
Once SG was ready to produce, Arenal would wind down, plant there be transferred to SG Deeps [saving a lot on buying new plant].
This would also 'free up' Arenal for further development later; surely so much easier/cheaper to do than having to access via tunnels being used for ongoing extraction.

Hence, the switch from Arenal to SG deeps that happened in 2016.
This seems to have been finessed by some open pit production in mid 2016, when the POG was high enough to be profitable.
That will have 'covered' the transition [esp. of plant] process I imagine; i.e. the fallow period for both Arenal and SG.

This cost efficient rotation between Areanl/SG/Open Pits is an example of how Salazar has improved upon the erstwhile profligacy of the Fowler years.
How it seems to me.

But yes, the existing [SG West] development is only for ~30k gold; it will be exhausted in ~1 year. How many $millions to develop the adjacent SG [Central] ore body for the next in sequence production phase?
I imagine all the Q2 $5-mn net cash will be consumed and some.

Anza [Columbia] is something else entirely.
Will comment in separate post, if time permits.

TS

[qs99] 23/1/2017 06:04

gold price motoring again this am, IMO should continue to benefit OMI..

[taperkick] 21/1/2017 21:05

Agree there needs to be more than ~225k oz @ 3.5g to start mining. The report suggests there is potentially a lot more but how long will it be before some "wow" grades/tonnages are confirmed? I do wonder if they will quietly drop Chile this year in favour of concentrating on Anza.

[rhuvaal2] 21/1/2017 21:04

Well folks, aug'gloop once said when the dow was around 1700 everything was too
expensive: no doubt including all gold stocks as well and he'd stay in cash. I was buying down to 7p and am staying in. I don't want to argue so will not be drawn into specifics. Some high profile investors are in here, with millions of shares too. Also, I do sleep happily at night :)

[augustusgloop] 21/1/2017 17:54

Richgit,

3.5 grams per tonne is certainly not high grade for an underground mine.

Isn't this far less than was anticipated for Arenal Deeps - which may have been a waste of $30m+.

Can you remember any underground gold mine that has been initiated on the expectation of such low grades - at 100m+ depth?

A 100m deep underground mine will cost at least $25m + the mill -- and no return for about 3 years.
Then there's probably not much infrastructure in the region.

You could be talking about a $40m investment here.

Not going to happen for such low grades.

[taperkick] 21/1/2017 11:32

Looking at the Anza report those APTA deposits are showing some very large intercepts. Could be years away though.

[overdale123] 19/1/2017 12:41

Usual desperate shorter pontificating as usual when share price and news is positive

[richgit] 19/1/2017 11:34

Elban,

You should keep an eye on what is happening is this NEW high grade Gold area.

If OMI gets success here- then not only are there already potential watchers,yet
upon progressions of another particular entity - others could be eager to get acreage (one way or another).

That would put this asset in the spotlight.

There will be huge discussion nearer the time,so we patiently wait for now.


Most certainly many small explorers are attracting excitement to 250,000 ounces
so it`s a nice situation to start from


IMHO.

[augustusgloop] 19/1/2017 10:24

"The resulting potential ranges between 1.6 M - 2.3 M tonnes averaging between 3.2 - 3.7g/t Au. "

-----------

Potential is the most misleading word in the English dictionary.

90% of 2 year olds have physical capabilities that give them the potential to run 100 meters in under 10.5 seconds when they are 20 years old.

But less than 1 in a million actually do so.

---------------

For the mine - the interpretation is:
If all our most optimistic assumptions are correct - then the mine could produce 250k ounces of gold.

[augustusgloop] 19/1/2017 10:07

Doesn't look economically viable to me.

Decent grades if they were at the surface -- but they are not - they are nearly all between 100 meters and 200 meters down.

That means building a serious underground mine right from the start.

--------

Simple conclusion = not going to happen!

[breaktwister] 19/1/2017 09:29

Metals are normally measured in troy oz which is 31.103 grams

[wallywoo] 19/1/2017 08:49

ah, ok so 1 ounce is 28.35 grams. So 7M grams = 246,913 ounces

[wallywoo] 19/1/2017 08:45

Sorry for being thick, rich, so what does this mean in terms of gold potential:

"Based on this information, a geological estimate of an exploratory gold potential of a portion of the APTA has been prepared with the assistance of Mine Development Associates ("MDA") of Reno, Nevada. The resulting potential ranges between 1.6 M - 2.3 M tonnes averaging between 3.2 - 3.7g/t Au. This estimate is based on current drilling and is expected to grow as future exploration drilling is conducted."

[sleveen] 19/1/2017 08:42

Completely wrong.

Try getting the units g/t and oz/t correct and go from there.

I make it around 200000oz. Not allowing for losses, ROM dilution etc.

[richgit] 19/1/2017 08:40

wallywoo.

No.

That would make it already far beyond Brancote.

Circa 250,000 Ounces


Certainly optimism that a drill campaign could get it to beyond 500,000 ounces for
starters.

The Waymar acreage is huge,so if they can get good results with potential for far more then who knows !!!


"The site has environmental permits enabling both underground and open-pit mining operations. The Anzá project includes two small underground gypsum mines, each of which also have environmental and mining permits granted by the Colombian authorities. Historically, the gypsum mines have been operated by a third-party contractor; Orosur is currently in the process of taking over operatorship. The gypsum permits can be readily expanded, enabling Orosur the ability to fast-track permitting for future gold mining operations."

[wallywoo] 19/1/2017 08:18

So I am reading that right, an estimate of 2M tonnes at an average grade of 3.5g/t, so around 7M ounces (not JORC of course).

wow!

[richgit] 19/1/2017 08:05

Timing/Sentiment are always the vital components.

If this drill programme coincides with the right timing/sentiment then it could
obviously be a huge Catalyst to propel the stock from wherever it is at the time.

The dreams of what could be can be a powerful addition to Investor appetite,as once again there will be discussion as to whether OMI is an earnings stock or self financing explorer- or both.

Whether the Waymar assets will be OMI`s Brancote is certainly a dream to hold.


I love the description that the $US Dollar is " a bug looking for a windscreen"
and at some point in the future it will find that Windscreen.


The commencement of drilling will certainly be my own reason to add more shares .


Looking around- just maybe HUM will have shown some legs by then and add to
improving investor sentiment from the current doldrums.

It will all be a hindsight of what volatility we will experience in these Imaginary Markets, yet for myself I just stick with the "Bug" scenario and several
Gold/Silver stocks.+ vaulted Silver/Gold


.