Orchard Funding Share Discussion Threads

[97peter] 08/10/2023 10:24

BB2 where is this Tristan post, comment, font of knowledge? A link or bulletin board not on ADVFN?

[battlebus2] 08/10/2023 09:16

Interesting post from Tristan on ORCH
I believe he’s a holder

[battlebus2] 06/10/2023 20:14

The legendary Ian Cassell sums it up.

A stock drops 25% it's an "opportunity"

Drops 10% more you call CEO to verify the thesis and buy more

Drops 10% more you get annoyed insiders aren't buying

Drops 10% more you sell your stock to the investors that are going to make money on the stock

[battlebus2] 06/10/2023 17:58

When I say I believe they are trading well I’m basing that on what we know from their broker forecasts and the tightening conditions. Remember they were ahead in the first half so I expect them to trade inline. Like Florence says interest rates won’t stay high for too long. I see NS&I has pulled it’s 6.2% bond so maybe a sign those rates are near peak. DYOR everyone and last I’m saying on this company.

[florence141414] 06/10/2023 17:23

I think it’s quite likely that they are not trading well at the moment due to the negative lag effect of passing on rate increases to customers. Therein lies the opportunity for me, the current hiking cycle will end at some point and Orchard will go back to making their 1-2m profits.

I also suspect that the loan book is perennially undervalued here because it is perceived as being unsecured as there is no asset backing to the loans. However, in reality, I believe that the structure of the deals with insurance companies make it such that loans are even more secure than those of hard/soft asset backed alternative UK small cap lenders such as VECTOR or TIME for example.

How, when or if that gets realised by the market is somewhat a leap of faith but it’s one I’m willing to take.

[cowie19] 06/10/2023 16:27

Have you considered that the sellers here are bleeding profusely elsewhere and need to sell here for liquidity purposes. Just a thought. I have not sold any.

[shanklin] 06/10/2023 16:02

I am 100% certain every other company I have shares in has updated the market since ORCH last gave any clue as to how they are getting on... ...not that I have any reason to doubt that all is fine there.

[cwa1] 06/10/2023 15:54

bb2

A bit like dd I'm not sure what draws you to the conclusion that: the company Is trading well. What are you basing that opinion on if you don't mind me asking? I haven't seen anything that suggests we're either trading well...or badly for that matter. Please don't get me wrong, I'm still a holder here and plan to be for the forseeable future, or something happens. I also don't want you think I'm having a pop at you because, again, I'm not intending to-I'm just struggling to see ANYTHING to hang an up to date opinion on myself

[konradpuss] 06/10/2023 15:43

battlebus, my sentiments entirely.

[davidosh] 06/10/2023 15:42

BB2.....Not sure you can safely say that ORCH are trading well....We have not had an update of any kind since early April with the interims so that is silence for six months. Your guess is as good as mine but shareholders have been selling for most of the last four months so a pre or post final results update from Ravi in that period would have helped to keep shareholders comfortable in holding on.

Unless trading is not so good...in which case we should all be told so we make our own decisions

[battlebus2] 06/10/2023 15:20

Shanklin the spread also is a consideration. I’m sorry but I struggle to see why we should sell given the company Is trading well in these tough times

[davidosh] 06/10/2023 14:36

97peter says....

This has always been a medium to long term hold, more for divi returns and a ‘steady eddy’ place to put long term SIPP investments which are better than any Annuity and more flexible!!


However from previous postings that was clearly not the strategy you used when selling heavily into the strength last December whilst posting on here that it was a great time to buy.

I appreciate you are trying to help on the IR front but the board should be doing more and there should be presentations and Q&A when results are released plus Agms should not be at Christmas.

[shanklin] 06/10/2023 14:23

There are so many bargains in this market that switching from an under-priced company with horrespondous corporate governance to another under-priced one which gives some consideration to shareholders does not seem entirely unreasonable to me,

[battlebus2] 06/10/2023 14:19

There’s another 10k sold. Fools at this price.

[97peter] 06/10/2023 12:20

CWA1- Cannot understand sellers today!! Plus negativity at ORCH which is a profitable and well run company?? Plus others on here who if they want answers to certain questions from CEO Ravi Takhar, either DM me for his Bexhill e-mail, or do it via IR relations page on website.

[97peter] 06/10/2023 08:51

BB2 the NAV isfineand will be realised in 2024/5. This has always been a medium to long term hold, more for divi returns and a ‘steady eddy’ place to put long term SIPP investments which are better than any Annuity and more flexible!!

[muffster] 06/10/2023 07:09

Good call davidosh..I agree

[battlebus2] 06/10/2023 07:04

True and NAV here is way off.

[konradpuss] 06/10/2023 05:19

David, it is not all about yield. Could Smiths News double in size over the next five years? Could Orchard double in size over the next five years? You pays your money, you tskes your pick. Smiths News is a very well run company mind however its turnover after inflation is going down year on year.

[davidosh] 05/10/2023 22:11

I am afraid that 7% is no longer attractive to new investors as they can get 6% in a National Savings bonds and many large caps are currently yielding 9% and more.

I have been buying Smiths News which has just announced they are slightly ahead and paying a 10% dividend. They are on a p/e of 4 and likely to payout even more next year as their bank debt will be down to zero.

It is not a booming business but very steady and a good place to get income whilst we ride this downturn.

[cwa1] 05/10/2023 22:08

I kind of hope it's a "no brainer" rather than a "no brained" decision-but good fortune regardless if the 5000 UT at 40p was indeed yourself

[97peter] 05/10/2023 20:59

KP yes it was my wife and daughter buying into ORCH, as do I and my son whenever we all get the chance to buy in dub 40p into our SIPP’s. It is a ‘no brained’ with a 7% divi and share price medium term will be back over 60p in 2024 is my predictions along with BBB and ESNT, plus STAF and HSS all good turnarounds!!!

[konradpuss] 05/10/2023 18:08

So Pete bought 5000 shares. Good on him. Not silly at this price.

[battlebus2] 05/10/2023 18:06

This is a great stock and will turn in time. Mark my words.

[cwa1] 05/10/2023 17:16

The UT WAS a massive 5,000 shares though :-)