Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[slartybartfaster] 12/5/2017 13:57

PRSM down a second day in a row. Good call elrico.

[slartybartfaster] 12/5/2017 13:47

Who gives a toss as long as HH, sacco and nutrillinea sell truck loads of lpldl products. Looking forward to more commercial announcements post vitafoods. Keep up the good work micky mouse you played a blinder here. I had a few beers with your mate on monday. What was it you did? sat outside his house stalking him then posted it on here. Wow and here you are another year passes and you are still trolling wasting your time even after stating you dont think what you has an impact on the share price Of course you dont believe this otherwise why would you waste so much time to trying.

[scotty1] 12/5/2017 13:35

A couple of 50k trades gone through today as sells which to me look like buys given the times of the trades and would also help/account for the decent rise we are having today,long may it continue ;)

[1bokke] 12/5/2017 13:35

Let me answer you with a question, why don't you ask them?

[shrewdmole] 12/5/2017 12:58

House broker gone on the bid always a good sign

[judijudi] 12/5/2017 12:57

Always a pleasure

[bobdown2] 12/5/2017 12:56

Thanks judi.

[michaelmouse] 12/5/2017 12:54

I believe that Opti attended a trade show in the past few days.

I have a question. In April 2016 the company released results regarding a 50 patient volunteer study for it's cholesterol reducing technology. Clearly 50 volunteers is not nearly a big enough sample size to prove anything conclusive. I can't find any RNS that suggests a far larger sample size has been used? Have they done this?

If they haven't then it all seems a bit rushed an inconclusive to me, and I certainly would have reservations about effectiveness.

Given the feedback from the slimming technology i.e. GoFigure which seemed lacklustre to me at best, and the sudden IPO for skinbiotics, I'm beginning to wonder if they're rushing things in a desperate attempt to try and generate at least some revenue. I've a horrible feeling it will all backfire badly.

Given that the share price has declined since Tuesday's news and the trade show, it does appear to be a worry. I also suspect that sales of GoFigure may start to falter unless substantial sums are being and will be spent on marketing. Results so far suggest it is at best a "me also" type product.

Of course these are just my thoughts and aimho. I'd appreciate an answer to the 50 volunteer study question though.

[judijudi] 12/5/2017 12:54

bobdown,
Yes in 5 mins on Sky

[jestercat2] 12/5/2017 12:53

Moving fast now

[bobdown2] 12/5/2017 12:50

Are we about to get some news ?

[someuwin] 12/5/2017 12:43

No online buy quote

[parob] 12/5/2017 12:35

A few more distributor deals on the LP-LDL products, and I can see this stock getting tipped left, right and centre as the business model is shown to be working. As TW said:Those who made the real killing on ARM were those who understood the business model and bought the shares when the earlier licensing deals were signed which was before the inflexion point when revenues exceeded costs.If you believe in SOH and the science, you have the choice to buy really cheaply now or pay a big premium once the story is out to the wider market.

[elrico] 12/5/2017 12:00

Risky - I understand your skepticism around the TW comment. That said, is SOH not on record stating underperformance will result in option given to another party? This suggests to me SOH has built in specific safeguards designed to ensure each partner maximises their efforts. If not this would be foolish and I don't believe SOH or the BOD with their experience are foolish.

[bernieboy] 12/5/2017 11:56

Hold tight for your Bruciebonus!

[brucie5] 12/5/2017 11:47

This appears to be trading between 60 and 90p, and 80p looks like the mode level. If it goes below 60p that would be very negative, but I suspect very much it will rise again. It's been a disappointing hold for me, but I haven't sold out yet. I think at this price it might be foolish to do so.

[riskybusiness1] 12/5/2017 11:41

Also I bet that comment about fin cap n soh sitting together is bs. Imagine soh asking nutrilinea 'how much do you reckon you will sell this year?' It's s brand new product how on earth will they know. Considering also it will depend on individual partners performance, the number of partners opti get like nutrilinea, their distributors, the time of year the licences paid etc etc. Let's get the sales first before rushing unreliable predictions.

[elrico] 12/5/2017 11:35

Significantly greater than $83m Chr Hansen paid for the LGG strain.

The key differences between the LGG strain and Optibiotix LP-LDL®
strain are:-

a. LGG is a recognised brand and LP-LDL® is not as yet established:
Optibiotix has significantly increased its trademarks as they extend
the branding internationally. This creates ‘double IP’ (essentially overlapping preventing IP infringements) which is commercially attractive for companies as it gives double protection and from our point of view the potential for separately
licensing the brand and IP. Optibiotix used LP-LDL® in all company presentations and publications to start building upmarket and brand recognition.

b. LGG has numerous supporting scientific publications: Optibiotix
have started the process of presenting and publishing the data
from the LP-LDL® strain. They will also be publishing data on the
mechanisms of action and potential ways of enhancing LP-LDL®’s
cholesterol and blood pressure reducing effect. They will also be
carrying out additional human studies in new markets with
partners. These will include more patients with elevated levels of
cholesterol.

c. LGG has Commercial sales. These are for general health
applications and are in multiple formulations with numerous
partners allowing global reach. LP-LDL® has no sales but is
following a similar ‘Coffee Bean’ model where it sees its LP-LDL®
in multiple applications, multiple presentations and
formulations, across multiple territories. The reduces the
risk of a single partner taking on the product and
exploiting limited formulations in limited territories.

d. LP-LDL® has been developed using a systemic and scientific
rational after screening over 4000 strains. This gives it a stronger
scientific foundation than LGG.

e. LP-LDL® has a known mechanism of action. This is important
in some regulatory frameworks, particularly where there is the
potential for it to be sold as a pharmaceutical product.
There is no known mechanism of action for LGG. A significant
value adding difference in favour of LP-LDL®.

f. LP-LDL®’s mechanism of action has numerous potential
other applications including C.difficile infection, diabetes,
weight management, and stress/sleep control.

g. LP-LDL® is targeted at a specific health condition. There is
growing evidence the Probiotic market is moving more towards
specific health conditions with health claims supported by good
science (i.e. Better Science, Better Health).

h. In summary whilst we recognise LP-LDL® is at a much earlier
stage of its development it has a strong scientific foundation,
a growing scientific evidence base, multiple application
opportunities, and growing brand recognition.

[parob] 12/5/2017 11:33

Trotters, I also think the deals will be closed quicker now that we have an actual physical product, and a manufacturer and producer already in place - and a pre-launch order from HLH - all validating the IP.

[riskybusiness1] 12/5/2017 11:29

I'm almost absolutely certain opti have been the victim of s shorting manipulation. I find tom w contrast in understanding of optis model and development stage this week compared to after the results slightly questionable too. Whoever this was created genuine panic and caused loyal holders such as spike to sell even at a loss. Not to mention selling away a loyal dividend payment in a young soon to be fast growth stock. I knew this wasn't 'the market' as everything has never looked better here. Really do feel sorry for those that got fleeced have no idea how people get away with this.

[rafboy] 12/5/2017 11:27

TT, exactly, a great deal I suspect.

[elrico] 12/5/2017 11:24

Slarty - good point about the financial projections OPTI and Finncap will be formulating. I don't know, but the way I have read the SACCO deal for example, they have a min per kilo, We know they also have a 50/50 profit share, we also know the margin window and we also know if any partners does not perform they lose the option. This is key, because this suggests OPTI have set a min sales requirement in the contract. Given this I would expect once OPTI have enough commercial partnership/distributors in place they should be able to offer some sort of projection. However, as has been stated before, SOH will guard against being put in a situation where he is held to ransom over revenue forecasts. On top of that his strategy is one of understating while expressing the potential for the future.

IMO 12/18 months of data will demonstrate a greater confidence in offering future guidance, but for now I expect a large degree of conservatism. I know he is aware the market wants numbers because the numbers assist in valuations. Currently, we are basing OPTI's value on IP potential based on known valuations like LGG strain, but for now OPTI's IP is valued at a significant discount, rightly so for now. This will change in time, or at least that is my hope and expectation.

[elrico] 12/5/2017 11:07

Slarty - Thanks for the encouragement last night. What happened to the British spirit and your love for the "special one."

[slartybartfaster] 12/5/2017 10:57

Manipulation? Both opti and sbtx sells have dried up at the same time. Both now hing on news flow. I dont expect we will wait to long. I liked the idea soh and fin were getting their heads together to formulate some sort of earning model. This will almost certainly be very conservative. I hope this is not rushed out and they wait for a few more lpldl distribution contracts so they can use a min requirement from all of them otherwise more skeptic trolls will arrive with the infinite wisdom.