Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[beergut] 01/2/2019 16:11

Sand Grove Capital Management Builds 6.4% Ophir Energy Stake

Don't think they are doing this for 0.5p profit per share......

[beergut] 01/2/2019 16:11

Sand Grove Capital Management Builds 6.4% Ophir Energy Stake

Don't think they are doing this for 0.5p profit per share......

[asherspoodles] 01/2/2019 08:50

ðŸ'‹You're welcomeðŸ'šðŸ'™ðŸ–¤ðŸ'›ðŸ'œðŸ'šðŸ'šâ?¤ï¸?Directors sanctioned a buyback yonks ago, here's the amended bye law that allowedthem to do that WITHOUT INFORMING MARKET:🖤🖤The more their proxy has bought in the higher holders profits at t/o:ðŸ'–ðŸ'–No FY report will be required if they DELIST ist by 30/4 - if not they HAVE to report.Listing REGS require that.Sale by Scheme of arrangement takes at least two months to delist them.So it's very nearly all over,SALE RNS IMMINENT :ðŸ'ŸðŸ'ŸFrom Trevanian on LSE. China sale clues.Today 11:56.The March Agreement has still to be ratified by all parties through an amendment to the PSC.If amended, GKP working interest under the PSC will be 58.0% (comprising 54.375% for GKP and3.625% for TKI) with a cost exposure of 64.0% and the Capacity Building Value for GKP and TKI willbe reduced from 40% to 30%..GKP has requested that ERCEÃÆ'¢â‚¬â„¢s Base Case economic evaluation is based on the terms set out in the March Agreement. #I had time yesterday evening to look closely at the most recent Pareto presentation.It came as a pleasant surprise in a number of respects.I quote above ERC Equipoise last audit report from 31 August 2016Now like a conjurer, the company working interest is now stated upfront at 80%, just over 470 m of 2P reserves.The PSC amendment that has for so long been the subject of negotiation has turned into IF amended.Another magic trick!The real negotiations must have been for sale of the company.I would advise investors to look carefully at the production history graph slide 4.In March #pressure gage retrieval# incurred a small drop in monthly output.The sensor decommissioning clearly signifies the end of a field modelling survey.It would also explain why the company has held off from installing pumps to increase output for so long. Natural field pressure readings would be contaminated by such external drive supports and make field simulation modelling impossible.It is open knowledge now that CNOOC and CNPC published their Search and Discovery abstract just over a month later on April 30 2018, and that they had been given a level of access to Shaikan that would never be countenanced, unless under formal diligence within an exclusive contract.So the cat is clearly out of the bag and I would expect corporate news.I would also make a technical observation regards production last year.If the exceptional interruptions are stripped out the consistency of production without any EOR currently, points to very low pressure depletion. That strongly indicates carbonate fracture replenishment which could only be a result of matrix release. However ERC state in their 2016 report no potential matrix recovery. It would be of great interest to see an up to date reserve report. I do not anticipate such a publication, however the Chinese will understand what they are buying.Peel Hunt issued a recent note on the company.#Valuation and recommendation. Following the above tweaks to the production profile and capex, we revise our core NAV to 392p from 387p. We continue to conservatively include no value in our target price for the 239MMbbl gross 2C in Shaikan, worth 34-136p/sh risked-unrisked.Gulf Keystone Petroleum continues to stand out as one of our top sector picks and we reiterate Buy.#They are being super conservative!They use 58% WI when we now know it remains 80%.So their core valuation must be revised by this, 38% higher.The do not place any value on 2C, actually 330m at 80% WI, and even at a very modest $ 2.3 boe this adds further £2 plus.They are only using $3.4 boe for 2P when MOL report $8 and Shamaran higher.So low base-case in my assessment is 470m 2p, 330m 2C (which would in my be treated as effectively 2P when new FDP approved)Working on 800m 2P without adding any value for the MOL recently reported upside and using a stil very modest $10 boe provides $ 8bn asset resource value.This is still very modest in that a land based resource of this size would be strongly fought over by IOC.With 229 million shares, using dollar exchange of 1.29, £ 27 per share would be the minimum I would expect the company’s major owners to accept.It would not be a surprise to me if this number doubled.🎈 x

[dunderheed] 31/1/2019 22:25

Yes it would be good to squeeze out a couple / few more pence.
Can't see it myself but there does seem to be interesting buying counter to that 'hunch'?

[arteespresso] 31/1/2019 21:37

All I'd say is have a read of the goblins post, if you can decipher it, makes an interesting read

[nigelpm] 31/1/2019 19:08

They might take the view that they'd rather wait for another bidder - who knows - could be interesting though.

[spacedust] 31/1/2019 17:42

55.5p tomorrow

[ashkv] 31/1/2019 16:37

Read up no voting rights - given that L&G are adding, along with Petrus - this is going to be a fight....

[ashkv] 31/1/2019 16:33

Well given transaction costs I would think they are holding out for more than 55p....

Any idea as to voting rights with CFDs??

[ashkv] 31/1/2019 16:31

hxxps://whalewisdom.com/filer/sand-grove-capital-management-llp-2

[ashkv] 31/1/2019 16:31

Kite Lake Strategy

Hard events
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[prefab] 31/1/2019 16:23

They've both gone long via CFDs, hoping to score a penny maybe or they suspect a little more perhaps.

[thedudie] 31/1/2019 16:22

There is no risk to them buying below 55p.
I'd like to see some of them buying above 55p....

[ashkv] 31/1/2019 16:16

Wow Sand Grove, Petrus, Kite Lake all adding big to Ophir at 54p

The fat lady hasn't sung.... :) :)

60-65p final take out - min

[nigelpm] 31/1/2019 15:26

well that's interesting.

A couple of hedge funds have bought 10% from weaker hands.

[nigelpm] 31/1/2019 15:00

The selling has really dried up here - hopeful for more.

[nigelpm] 31/1/2019 12:08

during which Ophr will be capped at 55p over a period where oil and gas prices are likely to see a recovery.

Only capped if all shareholders bail out.

Bybrook have already but no obvious sign of others doing so yet.

[spacedust] 31/1/2019 10:44

Im going to hold. No deal brexit. Tullow et al will be down 25% then i may get in

[romeike] 31/1/2019 10:05

I sold all yesterday at 54p and swapped the funds to Tullow. I am glad I averaged down at the lows or I'd have been looking at a much larger loss than I ended up with. I am hoping Tullow will turn that around.

I heard that the scheme could take many months to see through, during which Ophr will be capped at 55p over a period where oil and gas prices are likely to see a recovery. There's simply no reason to hold. Even if this deal was voted down - this board was prepared to recommend what amounts to theft and don't deserve shareholder's trust.

[spacedust] 31/1/2019 08:25

You may want to look in LAM

[ashkv] 31/1/2019 06:39

I re-entered into PMO recently -- highly leveraged to Oil Price (which I am off the view is headed up), tremendous assets for a major/bigger player to develop plus 100k bpd of production....

Also like Cairn....

[rayrac] 30/1/2019 22:44

Yes, ECO for me too ziblot, but they’ll have to actually find oil first. with HUR runner up, also having proved up oil in large amounts.

[nigelpm] 30/1/2019 22:18

In a word No.

[beergut] 30/1/2019 20:03

Would the Ophir board be negligent if Medco sales off the parts of Ophir it doesn't want for more than there bid? As it could be a real possibility at these levels.