Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[rayrac] 30/1/2019 07:42

Depends at what price you acquired? It’s all about trading, having paid 42p.

[linton5] 30/1/2019 07:30

Another one bites the dust good bye OPHR you played a blinder on shareholder value £6 to 55p

[thedudie] 30/1/2019 07:28

The white nights have had a month to show interest … or really 3 out of the last 4 months of 2018 when the share price was in the 30-40p region.

[steve73] 30/1/2019 07:22

"Consequently, the Ophir board intends to recommend unanimously the transaction to Ophir Shareholders."

Looking for a white knight now, but they are few and far between nowadays.

OPHR directors have only a 0.14% holding here, so it's not as though they've been "bought".

[rayrac] 30/1/2019 07:19

Approved by the bod, so 55p a cert. now for a counter bid?

[nigelpm] 30/1/2019 07:14

There it is. Formal offer at 55p. Let he fun and games commence. Down to the major shareholders now.

[specul82] 30/1/2019 07:13

55p still believe this is undervalued I would expect someone else to come in with a higher offer in the next few days

[steve73] 30/1/2019 01:18

Ed, I switched some of my PMO into here exactly (to the day) a year ago: PMO@85, OPHR@52.5. I was kicking myself for most of the year thereafter, but if I now switch back at today's prices it gives me around 15% more PMO than I'd sold....edit.. @55 it'll give me 27% extra PMO.

...or maybe add to my already overweight HUR holding?

or perhaps even add to RKH as SeaLion approval nears. (I opened my position here at the same time as buying into OPHR, and this is now 40% underwater).

Or maybe just hold out for a revised offer of 80p here... ;-))

[yasx] 30/1/2019 00:05

Nigel,

Referencing your post 5934.

You query how the RNS of 14/01 which considered the Medco proposal as one that "undervalues Ophir" turn into the likely to be recommended proposed offer as announced on the 28th.

Well, not sure why this is surprising - the prposal of the 28th is 13% greater than that of the 14th. So, it may well be the Board considers the undervaluation is no longer apparent at 55p.

Personally, given I bought in the mid 30's, I tomorrow would welcome crystallisation of the proposed offer.

[ed 123] 29/1/2019 22:11

55p met my expectations. That would do nicely. Fingers crossed for the formal agreement.

Imo, the major holders will go for it. 90% likelihood of a recommended offer here, I'd say. Petrus are just a small holder - noisy but small.

Counting my chickens maybe, but where do holders see good value for re-investing their payouts?

No advice, but I'm wondering, Serica? Hurricane? Premier? What are people's favourites? I suppose it depends to an extent on oil and gas price expectations. Any offerings?

[spacedust] 29/1/2019 15:34

55p will not be accepted .....

[prefab] 29/1/2019 14:19

Petrus still buying.

[spacedust] 29/1/2019 13:58

Holdings Rns is out!!!

Is that JP Morgan increased from 0% to 5%!!!!!!

[jotoha2] 29/1/2019 13:30

The city is basically corrupt , and once you accept that premise then you can adopt a strategy to gain from it , its not there to make you and I rich , but to legally transfer your wealth to themselves , that is why the corrupt individuals have to be highlighted , Luke Johnson of cake is a prime example of playing the game !!

[valuehunter1] 29/1/2019 13:27

I agree chaps, this has been a total stitch up by BoD and the ii's. This market is just corrupt - the ii's have been loading up in the last 3 weeks, good job I followed and loaded up too. I'm going to do great with 55p but feel sorry for all the long term holders who have been badly treated here. I called 55p when the discussions started and proved to be correct.

[nigelpm] 29/1/2019 13:03

If my view is incorrect then the bid will fail - very simple.

[jotoha2] 29/1/2019 12:55

Doubt your view is correct, 60% of major holders are well underwater , why would they wish to take a massive hit at this stage, one could argue as its not their personal money then they don't care how much they have lost on their investment , seems very odd.

Booth and the rest have shown themselves to be rather inept , they blew over £30 million on share buy backs at 140 pence down to around 120 pence , that of course enabled Sailing Stone to start dumping , its a fixed table.

[nigelpm] 29/1/2019 12:38

what the hell is going on here??


Guess your point is how does this on the 14/01 :

The Board of Ophir has now met formally to consider the possible offer announced by Medco on 11 January 2019 to acquire the issued and to be issued share capital of Ophir at an offer price of 48.5 pence per Ophir ordinary share.

The Board has unanimously rejected the proposal as it undervalues Ophir.


Turn into this on the 28th:

The parties are in advanced negotiations with a view to agreeing a recommended transaction at 55 pence per Ophir ordinary share in cash.

-------------------------------------

The only logical explanation is that post OPHR's strong rejection statement their shareholder base sent them lots of correspondence to the contrary.

That's the only thing that makes sense to me anyway.

[arteespresso] 29/1/2019 12:33

You are correct, Medco can offer what they want, it is for the board to decide whether to recommend to shareholders or not. I disagree with GG, as in on what basis would this suit most shareholders? It may suit institutions that have recently loaded up and PI who have bought in recently in the 40's and 30's, but I am quite sure it doesn't suit those that have been in this share for over 6 months. Yes, some have averaged down and only recently bought in, congrats to those. This should not detract from whether the board should be recommending an offer of 55p to shareholders. In my view, it is a clear cut NO. A no because we have: 1) good producing assets 2) Very low OPEX 3) Good free cash flow for the next 3 years at least. 4) Very little debt, soon to be zero debt. 5) The prospect of further developing fields in the far east to increase production 6) The opportunity to acquire more assets a la Santos given the free cash flow 7) The left field chance of something happening in Tanzania. I could go on, but one just has to revisit Ophir's own presentation from a few months ago at the AGM and think to themselves, what the hell is going on here?? And by the way, this view is from someone who has loaded up here with an average price of 40p and would benefit considerably from a sale at 55p.

[nigelpm] 29/1/2019 11:58

based on short term factors as "reasonable". There is simply no way anyone can argue that selling a low debt, profitable company for peanuts, simply for the sake of doing a deal, is "better value" for shareholders than the status quo.

I don't disagree with your sentiment here at all.

Had I not topped up very heavily in the 30's I'd be feeling quite different about things I'm sure however Medco have every right to offer whatever they choose in any manner they like - the board and shareholders then have to make a decision - they aren't being forced here.

[general george] 29/1/2019 11:41

I'd accept 55p right now.
Unless another bidder emerges.

Would be a good result, for most current holders. Of course you rarely get full value in these scenarios. The buyer wants a good deal with some meat left on the bone.

[roberto mancini] 29/1/2019 11:26

Might never see 55p again if the deal does not go through, management have proved to be inept, shareholder funds destruction on an industrial scale in my humble opinion.

The cash flow might be frittered away sooner or later better to take what is offer now, might even flush out a counter bid waiting in the wings.

[romeike] 29/1/2019 11:14

I don't see making ever lower offers in quick succession based on short term factors as "reasonable". There is simply no way anyone can argue that selling a low debt, profitable company for peanuts, simply for the sake of doing a deal, is "better value" for shareholders than the status quo.